Some Early Thoughts On The End Of The Season

September 28, 2008 at 11:00 pm · Filed under AL West, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Chris Davis, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, Matt Harrison, Michael Young, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Well, the 2008 Texas Rangers complete their season at 79-83, finishing second in the American League West, their highest ever finish since the Rangers last won the division back in 1999.

So what can we take away from this season:

1. The Rangers’ Young Core Is Among The Best In Baseball.  Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, and potentially Taylor Teagarden are an excellent young core that should only improve as time goes by.  All off them are on the payroll for at least the next four years, with Hamilton being the one with the most service time and without a long term deal.  The building blocks for a potential pennant winner exists in those four.
2. The Farm System Has Begun Bearing Fruit.  The Rangers have seen a great deal come out of their farm system this season to contribute to the big league level.  Aside from the mention of Davis and Teagarden, the Rangers still have Max Ramirez, who is a solid bat, as well as Matt Harrison, who showed that he could be the second coming of Kenny Rogers at times.  Other young players made it to the big club, with Tommy Hunter, Joaquin Arias, Brandon Boggs, and fan favorite David Murphy all showing some good contributions.  Warner Madrigal, who was shrewdly picked up from the Angels after they goofed on adding him to the 40 man, showed solid talent and could eventually become the Rangers’ closer.
3. But The Farm Continues To Have Top Talent.  The Rangers also have several other highly regarded prospects, which include two of the best young arms in baseball in Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, a right and left hander that both flash top of the rotation stuff.  Julio Borbon, the Rangers’ centerfielder of the future, also showed that he could at least be similar to Melky Cabrera (2007 Edition) if given a shot.  And beyond that, the Rangers had other products continuing to make noise, with Elvis Andrus, Engel Beltre, Michael Main, and Justin Smoak to name a few.
4. However, The Pitching Needs A Lot Of Work.  The Rangers’ pitching staff, notably the starters, has been awful this year.  The two most productive members of the staff arguably were Scott Feldman, who was a reliever last season, and Vicente Padilla, who was erratic.  Kevin Millwood is looking pretty much done and aside from that, there were a cavalcade of young ptichers that came in and out of Arlington this year.  Hopefully, this year did something well for their development.  Strong starting pitching means that the bullpen won’t be severely gassed by the time June comes around…which is exactly what happened for the Rangers.

However, I feel that overall, the Rangers have done a lot of things right.  The rebuilding effort undertaken by Jon Daniels a year and a half ago is now starting to show some promise, especially if the Rangers can acquire solid talent to augment the farm’s core.  Staying away from unwise free agent dealings would be another good idea, though I feel that Texas is somehow going to try and swing for the fences with the Sabathia/Sheets/Burnett trio of free agent starters available.  That would be a mistake, but hopefully, the Rangers can find those missing pieces, which would take this roster from a promising one to a contending one.

So, one final time this season, I say with enthusiam…

Go Rangers!!!

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The Lineup - Nine Potential Starting Pitching Acquistions

August 28, 2008 at 11:32 pm · Filed under AL West, Boston Red Sox, Chris Davis, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hurley, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, MLB, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

It’s no secret that Texas is seeking starting pitching.

Speciaically, durable, ace level starting pitching.

It’s also no secret that rarely do you get those guys in free agency.

So, the only way to really acquire a guy is by the draft or by trade.

So that’s where Texas will look to this off-season:  the trade market.

There should be some solid pitchers available this off-season, especially with the quality of free agents declining and the value of prospects going up.  However, the problem with having a top of the line farm system is that too often, other teams will attempt to screw you for all you got because of the fact that you have a top system.  For example, the Tampa Bay Rays asked the Rockies the price for Brian Fuentes.

Their answer was David Price, arguably the top prospect in baseball.

WIth that said, the Rangers do have the luxery of protecting certain guys from being picked, due to the strength of their system. 

Here are five guys I would declare untouchable:

1. Neftali Feliz (RHP) - Flame throwing lefty in Double A that has Ace like stuff.
2. Derek Holland (LHP) - Lefty with good velocity and control could duel with Feliz for top pitcher in the system.
3. Chris Davis (1B/3B) - Nuff said.
4. Josh Hamilton (CF) - Ditto.
5. Taylor Teagarden (C) - The top defensive catcher, the Rangers love Tegarden’s glove and with his power, many feel he’ll become a Mickey Tettleton type of catcher.

With that said, here are nine names I expect Texas to be talking about this off-season.

Boof Bonser (RHP) - Minnesota

• The Twins were shopping Bonser around during the deadline in hopes of getting something in return for him.  Bonsor isn’t an ace, but he is an innings eater that, if nothing else, functions as a perfectly good innings sponge.
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Bonser would be fairly cheap to acquire, and overall could serve as an innings eater for the Rangers, who desperately could use one.  He also could offer a bit of upside in that he’d keep his ERA near the mid 4’s, which isn’t bad coming from your Number Four.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  The Twins would gain something of value for a pitcher that they seem to have run out of patienc ewith.
• Problems:  Really, the biggest issue would be that the Twins might ask for the moon for Bonser, killing any interest the Rangers may have.
• My Best Offer?:  The Twins would likely want a prospect of some relevance, but the Rangers need to stand firm that the Twins need to be reasonable in terms of what needs to be offered.  Utlimatley, I think the Rangers could offer Jose Vallejo, a toolsy second baseman that could fill in as a shortstop.  Vallejo is in Double A and could rise to the Twins fairly quickly.  He’s also the best quality prospect I’d be willing to offer right now, as Bonser’s value might not even be worth that.
• Chance Of A Deal:  60%.  The Twins would be inclined to move Bonsor this offseason, if only to put his future arbitration worries on the heads of someone else.  All in all, I see him as an excellent buy-low opportunity, and one that could pay dividends.

Zack Grienke (RHP) - Kansas City

• Greinke is another fairly good talent that is under team control for several years.  With Grienke not signing any long term deals, nor with the Royals farm system producing anything of releveance, it would behoove Kansas City to flip Grienke for what they could get to accelerate their rebuilding process.
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Texas would get a young pitcher that could be a top of the rotation starter.  Grienke has good stuff and is showing the ability to be durable.  He’s under team control for at least another couple of years and could be willing to be extended with a newer team. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Kansas City knows that Grienke is their most valuable trade chip and getting more pieces to go with what they have already would help immensely. 
• Problems:  Grienke is going to be really expensive, and thus far Kansas City has been reluctant to trade him.  Another worry how Grienke’s past emotional problems could be twisted into a general sense of him being non-committed to helping Texas.  Finally, what would it cost?
• My Best Offer?:  Eric Hurley would have to be a piece in the deal, as well as one of either Jarrod Saltalamacchia (whom Dayton Moore, who was with the Braves, might want) or Max Ramirez in terms of the catchers.  Aside form that, it would take two more prospects, perhaps a reliever, such as Wes Littleton or Frank Francisco, and another prospect, Joaquin Arias, whom the Royals have coveted in the poast, could get the deal done.  Arias could be a decent option at second base for Kansas City, should they choose to plug him in there. 
• Chance Of A Deal:  40%.  I’ve no doubt that Texas will ask about Grienke and that both sides will toss names and figures around.  Chances are against a deal right now, but perhaps the Royals could be more inclined as time passes during the off-season and the needs of the team become more evident.

Edwin Jackson (RHP) - Tampa Bay

• Jackson is another live arm that is supposedly being dangled for more prospects.  Would Texas oblige? 
• Benefits Of A Deal: Jackson is a live arm and has shown that he can be dominant when his stuff is working.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Tampa Bay clears a space for David Price, while selling high on Jackson.
• Problems:  Jackson is so damn inconsistent, which makes things trouble when his stuff is not working.  Also, Tampa lacks any noticeable hole and they have a history of being notoriously difficult to trade with.  So what could be done for a possible deal?  The only noticeable hole on Tampa’s roster would be shortstop, to which Elvis Andrus would have to be a part of.  Perhaps David Murphy, who fits Joe Maddon’s style, could also appeal.  After that, it’s a wash, as it depends on who else Tampa and Texas could agree on sending back and forth. 
• My Best Offer?:  Andrus and Murphy, Plus A Player To Be Named Later.  That’s it.  Jackson is a solid arm, but not special, and doesn’t offer that Ace upside.
• Chance Of A Deal:  10%.  Ultimately, Jackson isn’t what the Rangers are looking for, though he could be had.

Justin Masterson (RHP) - Boston

• Masterson is the one young pitcher that I do highly covet from Boston’s system, and he seems to be the forgotten man on that team, and is underappreciated. 
• Benefits Of A Deal: Masterson could at least be an average starter, with the possibility of more if he can get a solid third pitch to go with his sinker-slider combo.  And if not, at least he could fill the role of a relief ace.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Boston would be giving up a good arm, but they need a catcher to replace Jason Varitek.  It’s unlikely that Cleveland would trade them back Kelly Shoppach, unless it’s for a King’s Ransom, and the Rangers have more flavors to choose from in terms of catching.
• Problems:  Boston is notorious for lowballing teams in terms of trade offers, and often times try to expand a deal farther than the original intentions of the trade.  And Boston would likely demand Taylor Teagarden, while Texas would counter with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which could lead to a lengthy disagreement that could end nowhere. 
• My Best Offer?:  For starters, I would actually offer to take half of Julio Lugo’s bad contract back.  Lugo could function as an overpaid utilityman, and would likely see time at third, short, and second, allowing the Rangers to rest their infielders.  Second, I’d include Jarrod Saltalamacchia as part of the deal.  Taylor Teagarden is a more valuable prospect, but he’s also the one catcher among the bunch that Texas wants to keep.
• Chance Of A Deal:  50%.  Texas and Boston had discussions over catchers, but those talks ended when Boston asked about Teagarden and nothing else seemed to be able to come to fruition.  Boston and Texas will resume negotiations this off-season.  We’ll see how far they go.

Shawn Marcum (RHP) - Toronto

• Marcum is rumored to be a person to be shopped around in a trade by the Jays, in hopes of reloading the team, rather than rebuilding.
• Benefits of A Deal:  Marcum is relatively young and would be under Rangers control for at least three years.  He’s shown the capacity to eat innings and could slot in nicely near the top of the rotation.
• Why The Team Could Be Interested:  Toronto would gain some young, cheap talent, all the while targeting some back of the rotation help that could benefit them.  Thanks to their defensive ability, Marcum is rather replaceable and his value is high.
• Problems:  Marcum isn’t all that great of a pitcher, as he benefits a lot from his defense, which would take a hit if he were to come over to Arlington.  Another issue is that because the illusion of Marcum is far from what Marcum is, and that illusion is overpriced.  Also, Toronto and Texas have duked it out in the past over player valuation (Kevin Mench), and relations remain strained still.
• My Best Offer:  I’d tell Toronto to pound sand, to be honest.  But if I really HAVE to come up with a deal, I’d offer them a package centered around John Mayberry Jr., a power hitting right fielder in the Texas system that is now emerging as a Jermaine Dye.  It’s likely that the Jays would want more, so I’d send them some other products, like Omar Poveda, a Rangers prospect in Low A that is roughly similar to Marcum or Eric Hurley, plus  Brendan Garr, a top relief prospect that touches 96, and Joaquin Arias, who could start at shortstop right now for Toronto.
• Chances Of A Deal:  10%.  Marcum doesn’t really fit what the Rangers would want, nor do I think that both sides can really match up in terms of a talent for talent match.  Toronto seems like they want to strike a home run on any trade of Marcum, and to be honest, when it’s all said and done, I really don’t think that Marcum is the type of pitcher the organization needs to be hunting for anyway.

Roy Halladay (RHP) - Toronto

• Toronto is in a bit of a transition, and could move their ace for a nice prospect package that would help the team in the short and long term.
• Benefits Of A Deal:   Halladay is a proven innings eater, keeps the ball in the park, throws strikes and all in all is a quality pitcher that could head up the rotation. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Halladay would bring back an impressive prospect package that would allow the Blue Jays to fill multiple holes with cheap talent. 
• Problems:  Toronto and the Rangers have had issues over dealings in the past, which doesn’t help the matters at all.  Plus, the bigger issues is that Hallady is over 40, he’s only signed for this coming and the following season, and his ERA at Rangers Ballpark and at Angels Stadium is over six. 
• My Best Offer?:   I’m not sure what I would want to give up.  It’s likely that Toronto would demand Feliz, Holland, or Davis, to which I’d tell them to go pound sand.  However, I would offer a solid package of John Mayberry Jr., Eric Hurley, Frank Francisco and their choice between Max Ramirez, a solid hitting prospect, or Omar Poveda, a good pitching prospect in the mold of Shawn Marcum. 
• Chance Of A Deal:  40%.  I think there is a chance that the Rangers could wind up with Halladay, but why would you want to at this point in his career?  I’m not certain that he’s worth a prospect package that big.  The next guy is…

Matt Cain (RHP) - San Francisco

• The Giants need help in multiple positions, and with Cain being their most most valuable trade chip.
• Benefits Of A Deal:   Cain is the young ace the Rangers need to head the rotation.  He’s entering his prime, he’s under team control for three years (two plus an option), and would be around when the Rangers’ young guns, Feliz and Holland, arrive.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Though it’s hard for them to be trading away their past ace, Cain does bring them a lot of value, especially in terms of positional players, which the Giants sorely lack.  They’ve been able to develop pitching, however, and would gain one in the trade.
• Problems:  It’s the Giants.  How crazy of a package might they demand that would kill a deal?  And how commited would they be willing to break up the Cain-Lincecum two headed monster, even if it meant it would help the team.
• My Best Offer?:  Hurley would have to be in the deal, as would Andrus.  Mayberry could also be included as well, which give the Giants a Top Prospect And Two Very Good Prospects.  From there, it would be a working of minor players to be exchanged, though it’s very likely that the Giants could try to demand Chris Davis in a deal, which would be a deal breaker.  My final offer, in the end, would be Andrus, Mayberry, Hurley, and two player to be named laters.
• Chance Of A Deal:  60%.  San Francisco is likely on the short list of teams the Rangers plan on calling, and it’s possible that if the GIants, viewing the division as winnable and the hole in their rotation replacable, could agree if it would vault them ahead of Los Angeles, San Diego and Colorado.

Scott Kazmir (LHP) - Tampa Bay

• The Rangers could make an offer on Kazmir, who was briefly shopped at the GM Meetings, but only for a elite package of talent in return.  This offer was most recently tossed about by Jamey Newberg, so I’ll entertain it. 
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Kazmir would be under Rangers control for four years, with Kazmir signed for $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011, and $13.5 million in 2012 (or a $2.5 million buyout).  Kazmir would be a legitimate top of the rotation starter and is young enough that he’ll still be around when Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, who are among my five untouchables, would arrive to Arlington. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Tampa actually could afford to lose Kazmir considering that they have David Price and Jeremy Hellickson in the system, both of whom can be great additions to the Tampa Rotation.  It would also keep costs down for the Rays, who have to be careful with their budget due to their financial considerations. 
• Problems:  Andrus, Murphy, and perhaps John Mayberry Jr, who could play right field and is relatively cheap.  After that, it’s a wash, as it depends on who else Tampa and Texas could agree on sending back and forth. 
• My best offer?  Andrus, Murphy, Mayberry, with the offer of either Kasey Kiker or two player to be named laters as the final piece.
• Chances Of A Deal:  5%.  I think Tampa would at least hear out Texas, but at the end of the day, they aren’t nearly in the same straits as San Francisco, so this will likely remain a wet dream to Ranger fans.

Scott Olson (LHP) - Florida

• The Rangers could make an offer on Kazmir, who was briefly shopped at the GM Meetings, but only for a elite package of talent in return.  This offer was most recently tossed about by Jamey Newberg, so I’ll entertain it. 
• Benefits Of A Deal:  In the past, Olsen has been a above average left hander that has proven that he has the skill to dominate and get guys out.  He’s also been rather durable as well and is also entering his prime years as a starter. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Florida is interested in doing this deal solely because of monetary reasons, as Olsen is arbitration eligible. 
• Problems:  Florida is notorious for asking for the moon on their players and would demand near prohibative amounts of talent in exchange for a young starter.  Also, Texas and Florida attempted to get a Beckett deal, but Texas was angered after Florida secretly took the Texas offer and shopped it around in hopes of upping the price, which they did from Boston.  Lastly, and this has to deal with Olsen himself, aside from the character issues in the past, his strikeout totals are dropping, though he is becoming a more complete pitcher.
• My best offer?  God knows what crazy shit Florida would ask.  It would likely be a request for one of Holland and Feliz, which I wouldn’t do, John Mayberry Jr., Andrus, and potentially Taylor Teagarden.
• Chances Of A Deal:  5%.  Look for it to be disucssed, but in the end, I think Florida will probably price Olsen out of nearly everyone’s market unless they come down on their price.

So there you have it, a list of options that the Rangers could commit to following this season.  With the need for a quality ace at the top, it makes some sense to trade some of the farm wealth to fill that role.  Keep in mind, which prospects are valuable, they do expire, and not all work out.  So in the end, protect those that you feel can add to the organizations future.  Ditch the rest for parts that can help out the untouchable.

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Possible Trades Involving Rangers Catching

July 29, 2008 at 9:34 pm · Filed under AL West, Chris Davis, Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, MLB, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Vicente Padilla

With the Rangers likely out of the race thanks to the Mark Teixeira trade, plus the spectacular implosion of the Rangers rotation, it’s time to discuss the possible trades to be had, in particular the Rangers’ quartet of young catchers.  Here’s how things stand with each of them.

Gerald Laird

• Strongest Suitors - Marlins, Yankees, Brewers
• The Skinny:  Right now, the Marlins are the most aggressive suitor for Laird, who appears to be back on track this season.  However, New York is lurking and seems to have finally recognized the need for a long term replacement for Jorge Posada, hence their interest.  Finally, it also appears the fucking BREWERS are also in now, making this a three team race.
• Potential Deal:  Again, Texas is looking for a major league ready or near ready starter, which means to qualify for Laird, the Yankees would have to sacrifice Ian Kennedy, the Brewers maybe Manny Parra or someone along those lines and Florida Gaby Hernandez.  Texas would likely try to expand the deal for more pieces, likely tossing in a reliever, though which one is under question right now.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

• Strongest Suitors - Many
• The Skinny:  Salty also still has his suitors, and it’s also thought that the Rangers are a little more eager to shop him around since he’s struggled.  I still believe in Salty, who has been battling injuries since he returned to the majors but is now healthy and has hit well in July.  Still, his value is still high as a trade chip, and it remains to be seen what he’ll earn in a trade.
• Potential Deal: 

Taylor Teagarden

• Strongest Suitors - Boston
• The Skinny:  Boston covets Teagarden, both for his game calling abilities and his bat, which has quite a bit of thunder in it.  Teagarden is also the catcher that Texas is most reluctant to trade away.  Overall, Texas has said it will deal it’s catching prospects only for near major league ready pitching, which means Boston has to part with one of it’s prized starting pitchers, be it Justin Masterson (who may be best off in the pen), or Michael Bowden (who, despite the Red Sox hype, may only be a Number Three or Four starter.)  I’m not expecting an ace, but I am expecting something of value for Teagarden, who merits at least a blue chip pitcher in return. 
• Potential Deal - If Texas makes the deal, it’s likely for one of Bowden or Masterson Plus a second prospect, which won’t be a pitcher.  It’s possible that Texas could expand a trade to include Eddie Guardado to give the Sox some relief help, all the while increasing the potential return for another highly regarded prospect.

Max Ramirez

• Strongest Suitors - Unknown
• The Skinny:  Ramirez is another Ranger catcher that looked quite good during his limited time up in the majors.  Ramirez showed he can hit and his glove wasn’t as bad as people thought it was.  Most importantly, Ramirez showed a catchers mentality, getting plowed twice and continuing to tick.
• Potential Deal:  Ramirez would merit a prospect of some caliber, but what type is unknown right now, because there isn’t much known interest right now.  Of the four, Ramirez is the one most likely to remain a Ranger, and is quite possibly destined for some backup catcher/DH/1B quasi role, which would enable him to reduce the wear and tear of catching while remaining in the lineup.

Other Potential Ranger Trades

Vicente Padilla

• Potential Suitors - Unknown RIght Now, But There Is Interest
• The Skinny:  Padilla is arguably the best pitcher available right now, and that’s not saying a whole lot.  He can still dominate, but also has gotten torched a few times, making it a bit of a roll of the dice when he takes the mound.  His contract isn’t unreasonable and could be partially paid by Texas depending on the quality of prospects.  Arizona could be worth talking to, depending on what they’d trade.  Chad Tracy would likely be a start.  Another option worth exploring, the Dodgers, could result in possibly Andy LaRoche being offered as bait, which would be a solid return.  Two other options that are out there, but not as attractive, are the Mets and Cardinals, but neither team is willing to sacrifice any major prospects and would want to treat such a deal as a salary dump and as a gift.

Frank Catalonotto

• Potential Suitors - Mets, Giants,
• THe Skinny:  Cat is kinda rendered useless thanks to the promotion of Chris Davis and the emergence of the Murphy/Hamilton/Byrd outfield, with Bradley at DH and Brandon Boggs serving as a fourth outfielder.  Cat still has the ability to be a decent DH and the Rangers would likely eat a lot of the contract to move him.  It just remains to be seen if someone would give him a shot.  Cat would be a solid fit on the Mets in left field, and wouldn’t be too bad for the Giants if they decided to find a bit of a stopgap before they can get a legitimate prospect at first base.  If I were Texas, I would offer Cat as a part of a larger deal that would net Jonathan Sanchez in return for an exchange of contracts and talent.  I’ll have to come up with one soon.

Ramon Vasquez

• Potential Suitors - Dodgers, Cardinals
• The Skinny:  Vasquez has been a surprise this season, and has been one of the Rangers’ better hitters.  He’s also pissy that he’s now riding the pine thanks to Hank Blalock and potentially Michael Young in a couple of years.  So, Vasquez is an intriuging piece of trade bait, which I would explore in terms of value.  The Cardinals could use Vasquez at second base or shortstop and could offer up a decent arm in Jess Todd, currently doing well in Double A.  THe Dodgers are another team that could use Vasquez, and they have begun looking at assorted utility men in an attempt to improve the situation.  I’d offer them Vasquez, again, in an attempt to pry away Andy LaRoche from them.

Coming On Friday - Draft Update, Plus Team Needs For 2009

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