Breaking Down The Still Unfinished Matt Holliday Trade To Oakland

November 10, 2008 at 7:09 pm · Filed under AL West, Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies, Greg Smith, Huston Street, Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics

It’s still not official yet, and talks are still said to be “extremely fluid”, but according to Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown, the A’s are trading OF Carlos Gonzalez, RHP Huston Street and LHP Greg Smith to the Colorado Rockies for OF Matt Holliday.

First, let’s take a look at the A’s side of the deal:

What Oakland Gets

Oakland gets a legitimate middle of the order bat for their rotation that lacks any pop.  With Holliday in the mix, here is what Oakland’s lineup looks like:

1. Mark Ellis (2B)
2. Kurt Suzuki (C)
3. Matt Holliday (LF)
4. Jack Cust (DH)
5. Daric Barton (1B)
6. Ryan Sweeney (CF)
7. Travis Fuck Buck (LF)
8. Eric Chavez (3B)   Jack Hannahan (3B)
9. Bobby Crosby (SS)

All in all, that’s a much better lineup and should help Oakland support what should be a stronger pitching lineup next season.  I think Oakland barely scored something along the lines of two runs a game, which is pathetic.  Oakland should boast a strong rotation next year, with Justin Duchscherer, Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Dana Eveland all likely to contribute.

What Oakland Gives Up

What’s nifty about this deal is that almost all of the pieces Oakland gave up, save Gonzalez, were pieces that they could afford to lose.  Smith was likely going to fight it out for a fifth starters role in the rotatin (though I was able to exploit his bouts of effectiveness in Fantasy Baseball) and might have been sent down.  All in all, he likely was better off heading to the National League anyway.  Street was done anyway, as Oakland wasn’t keen on paying him a raise in arbitration and they already had some nice in house options for closer.  Gonzalez is the most valuable piece of this deal exiting Oakland.  While he still is a lot of projection, he’s a potential middle of the order right fielder that could blossom well in Colorado.  But even then, Oakland has a shitload of outfield options, starting with Sweeney, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, Buck, and prospect Corey Brown in the minors. 

But all in all, it’s a good trade for Oakland, who is going for a return to contention next season.  And, with Holliday not likely to re-sign, the A’s will gain two draft picks, making for it to be a very beneficial return.

What Colorado Gets

Colorado gets a good return for Holliday.  They get a young outfielder that could potentially replace what they lost in Holliday, and they have him for the next five years at a bargain price.  They also gain a player that can replace Brian Fuentes as their closer, or can be flipped to another team to fill more needs.

The player that makes me wonder a bit about this deal is Smith, who immediately slots in to be the Rockies’ fifth starter.  The problem is that, while durable, Smith has his share of control issues, and is flyball friendly.  He gave up a shade over 20 home runs last season.  That makes him potentially a bad fit at Coors Field, where the flyball goes to die.

What Colorado Loses

As for what Colorado loses, they lose Holliday, a big bat in their lineup, but they were going to lose him at the end of the season anyway and get roughly equivalent value of the two draft picks they would have recieved had he stayed.  At the very least, they’ll now have some money freed up to play around with in the off-season.

Winner

The edge in the end goes to Oakland, who really dealt a bunch of spare pieces for a big bat for a run at contention.  Colorado does make out well here, and the deal will tilt their way if Gonzalez develops as planned.

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Early Free Agency Musings, Plus Thoughts On Mike Maddux Being The New Pitching Coach

November 2, 2008 at 7:48 pm · Filed under AL West, Billy Butler, Boston Red Sox, Chad Cordero, Florida Marlins, Gerald Laird, Hank Blalock, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jasson Jennings, Kansas City Royals, Max Ramirez, Mike Jacobs, Milton Bradley, New York Yankees, Phil Hughes, Scott Olsen, Taylor Teagarden, Texas Rangers

Maddux New Pitching Coach

According to the Dallas Morning News, and according to Doug Melvin, the Rangers have hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach.  It’s a good hire, as Maddux is universally regarded to be one of the top pitching instructors in baseball, plus he has a history with GM Nolan Ryan.  Ultimately, it was the latter that might have keyed the Rangers in on him.

While I do think Rick Peterson might be a bit better of a hire, Maddux isn’t anything to sneeze at.  He’s gotten good work out of his pitchers and might be able to help undo some of the damage done by Mark Connor.  

And, on a personal note, it’s nice to see the only player ever to come from the University of Texas-El Paso continue to make his way up in the world.  Woot!

Farm System Series Starts Next Monday

The farm system series begins next Monday, with two teams being posted per post.  Rangers and Astros will remain the final two teams, as they were last year on the FoxBlog.  There won’t be any order, just two teams picked out from a hat.

Daniels To Shop The Catcher’s At GM Meetings

According to Newsday and Evan Grant at the Dallas Morning News, Jon Daniels is hoping to move at least one of the four catchers at the GM Meetings, hopefully for a pitcher.   Of that group, according to Baseball Prospectus’ John Perlotto, the Rangers are keeping Taylor Teagarden as the starter for next year, unless they are bowled over by an offer.  That makes sense, as Teagarden is the one catcher that has the best game calling and defensive skills.  That and he can mash and get on base, so that should be nifty.  That means one of the group of Salty or Max Ramirez will backup and DH.  The only real problem with that seemingly ideal arrangement is that Teagarden has a history of back issues, which could inhibit some of his playing time.

In any case, the Red Sox are said to “covet” Saltalamacchia, seeing him as they once saw Jason Varitek.  That’s fine and dandy, but I want a solid return for Saltalamacchia, none of this Michael Bowden bullshit either, unless it’s as part of a bigger package.  Trading Salty for a pitcher makes some sense, but it’s important to get the best return on a trade.  If that’s getting an outfielder, pitcher, first baseman, whatever, then that’s fine.

The Yankee Blog, Was Watching, tosses out an interesting trade idea:  Jarrod Saltalamacchia For Phil Hughes.  In this scenario, neither player has turned out the way either team expected, and a match of parts to fill needs might work.  I would be all over this if it were an actual trade rumor tossed out, but I don’t expect it to be mentioned.  New York, specifically, Brian Cashman, still values Hughes very highly and won’t trade him for Salty.  That’s kind of typical for the Yankees, who protect their top 20 guys and want to trade you the guys that will likely be minor league fodder or middle relief.  The fact that the Pirates got Jose Tabata was a miracle.  Back to the subject at hand, maybe the next pitching coach can bring about the promise in Hughes.  Or maybe just a simple move out of New York, who has heavily hyped Hughes since 2005, can relax him to the point that he can pitch up to his potential.

The Chicago Tribute also reports that the Marlins want to acquire Saltalamacchia and that Texas has talked to them about Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen.  That would be a bad trade in my opinion.  First of all, Gregg isn’t an impact reliever, but will be treated as one in the trade.  Second, Olsen is a wild card, but his dip in velocity and strikeouts concern me.  As I said in the GM Series, I’d be willing to do a Laird for Olsen swap, but that’s about it.

Rangers Free Agents, Who To Bring Back

• Hank Blalock (1B/3B/DH) - Pending $6.2 million Option.  Blalock can only be a free agent if the Rangers do not pick up his $6.2 million option for 2009.  Count on that option being exercised.  Depending on what happens with Bradley, Blalock either enters the season as the DH or as the regular first baseman, meaning that Chris Davis would get flipped to third base if that were to happen.  Right now it’s just time to wait and see.  If the Rangers don’t bring back Blalock, expect to see Joe Crede  in Texas on a one year deal to rebuild his value so Scott Boras can compare him to Mike Schmidt in 2009. 
• Milton Bradley (RF/DH) - Type B Free Agent.  Bradley is the wild card in this mess.  He hit .321 with 78 runs scored, 22 home runs and 77 RBIs.  He also played in only 126 games this season, which was expected, and most of those at DH.  Overall, I think it’s going to be an issue of health when it comes to Bradley.  Bradley wants a multiyear contract, while Texas is looking for a smaller commitment.  My guess is that the Rangers only want a two year commitment with an option for Bradley.  Bradley likely wants at least four.  Bradley might look more attractive to some teams in the fact that he still won’t be as expensive as the sexier names on the market, such as Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira.  My guess is that he goes to either Toronto or to the Yankees. 
• Jason Jennings (RHP) - No Compensation.  Jennings was a complete bust for the Rangers, and also cost the Rangers Armando Gallarraga, who they were forced to DFA in order to make room for his ass.  Jennings and the Rangers both seem to have an interest in giving it another shot, only this time, the Rangers will likely push for a minor league contract instead.
• Ramon Vazquez (UTIL) - No Compensation.  , who has served as a valuable utility infielder for two seasons, is looking for a multiyear contract. The Rangers will likely go with either German Duran or Joaquin Arias as their utility infielder in 2009.
• Jamey Wright (RHP) - Wright pitched in 75 games and was 8-7 with a 5.12 ERA while carrying a heavy workload.  Wright can actually be quite effective as a setup man if he’s not abused like he was by Wash.  He’s probably not coming back.

Notes And Riffs  (Sca-Dooby-Dooby-Dooby-Do-Wah!!!)

• Chad Cordero has filed for free agency, since Washington has voted to non-tender him.  The Nats should have moved Cordero to Boston when they had the chance two years ago, but instead voted to hang onto him, only to get dick for him this off-season.  From a Rangers POV, I’d offer him a one year deal in hopes of flipping him at the deadline, but I think Cordero is going to reunite with the GM that drafted him, Omar Minaya, and close for the Mets.
• What the fuck was up with that deal early today that sent Mike Jacobs to the Royals for Leo Nunez?  The Royals had an on base percentage of .320 this year, so the last thing that they needed was another free swinger.  On the other hand, the Royals lack any sort of power in the lineup, and Jacobs did hit 32 dingers this year, so that may have been what this deal was all about.  Still, I don’t think this is a deal that needed to be made.  Jacobs doesn’t walk, isn’t great at first base, and blcoks both Kila Ka’aihue and Ryan Shealy, two first baseman that could at least produce numbers similar to Jacobs at a fraction of the price.  As for the Marlins, this is a win for them.  They now have made Jacobs’ arbitration raise someone elses problem, can move Jorge Cantu and his hands of stone to first base and have Dallas McPherson at third, or trade Cantu as well and promote prospect Gaby Sanchez to play first.  And, they gain Nuñez, who was 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA last season in 45 games.  He’s cheaper, and could possibly enter the season in the mix to be the Royals’ closer.  
• One last note about the Royals.  I wonder if this also means that Billy Butler might be available.  Butler hit okay last year, but he’s got solid power potential and could be a good DH.  And with Jacobs, Shealy, Russ Gload, and Ka’aihue in the mix for time at DH, Butler is going to have a hard time finding at bats.

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Is Something Wrong With Michael Bowden?

October 23, 2008 at 5:34 pm · Filed under AL West, Boston Red Sox, Michael Bowden, Taylor Teagarden, Texas Rangers

Is there something about Michael Bowden that we need to know about?

For the past couple of seasons, the Red Sox have offered Bowden to the Rangers at the deadline.  And the Rangers have declined each time.

In 2007, the Red Sox offered Bowden straight up for Eric Gagne.  Texas refused and instead focused on a package centered around Engel Beltre instead.

In 2008, the Red Sox offered Bowden again for Texas catching prospect Taylor Teagarden, who is arguably the best of the four young catchers on the squad.  Texas countered with an offer of Teagarden for Justin Masterson.  Boston said no and no deal was struck.

With Jason Varitek no longer a starter, the Red Sox are said to be looking at Texas for a potential fit at catcher.  Teagarden is likely once again to be at the center of discussions.

So will Bowden.

Bowden isn’t a bad prospect.  He’s got average stuff, a durable frame, and can elevate hsi game at times.  He’s a good little Number Three or Four.

But let’s be honest here.

Bowden wouldn’t make the top 10 Rangers prospects, as there are at least ten guys that are better regarded than him.

Here’s the list, if such a trade was made for Teagarden (who would rank #5 on this list):

1. Neftali Feliz (RHP) - Good fastball, off speed pitches.  He’s a possible big league ace.
2. Derek Holland (LHP) - Lefties with mid 90’s heat, clean delieveries, and great breaking stuff don’t grow on trees.
3. Justin Smoak (1B) - Arguably the best first baseman in the draft.  Gold Glove defense, solid power, plate discipline could push Chris Davis to DH.
4. Elvis Andrus (SS) - Many though Andrus was defensively ready last year, but the bat is beginning to show signs of promise after the Rangers slowed down his push through the minor league levels.
5. Michael Main (RHP) - Often forgotten among the games top pitching prospects, Main has the tools to be Mike Mussina in his Orioles days.
   
6. Julio Borbon (CF) - This solid centerfielder is eventually going to force Josh Hamilton to right field.  
   
7. Engel Beltre (CF) - Alfonso Soriano, only with the ability to play center, is his cieling.
   
8. Blake Beavan (RHP) - Decent right handed pitcher, could be quality middle of the rotation guy.
   
9. Max Ramirez (C) - Good offensive catcher showed plenty in his audition with Texas.
10. Martin Perez (LHP) - It’s a bit early for the Johan Santana comps that are being tossed out there.  What isn’t early is the fact that he does have talent.
11. Michael Bowden (RHP)

So now, I’m not confortable giving away out 5th best prospect for a guy who would be Number 11 and honestly wouldn’t be that much of a difference maker.  Which makes the idea of a trade for Masterson to make a lot of sense, as both would be exchanging quality goods to each other in a fair deal.

Billy Beane once said that a trade is only a good trade if it hurts both sides.

Hamilton for Volquez was a good trade.

Bowden for Teagarden wouldn’t be.

Texas would hurt.

Boston has already deemed Bowden expendable.

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Answering T.R. Sullivan’s Mailbag (Now With More Profanity!!!)

October 12, 2008 at 1:35 pm · Filed under AL West, Boston Red Sox, Elvis Andrus, Hank Blalock, Jake Peavy, Michael Young, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers

In this case, answer some email, most of which is from Rangers beat writer, T.R. Sullivan’s mailbag.  If you have ever read Sullivan’s mailbag, you would find that a lot of the people that write come up with the most asinine questions.  And that Sullivan gives some of the most off the wall answers.  I can’t claim credit for this idea.  Andrew Stoeten from Drunk Jays Fans did it first with Richard Griffin.

Onto the mailbag!!!

Could Thomas Diamond earn the fourth- or fifth-starter slot with a strong/overpowering spring showing?
– Bob H., Grapevine, Texas

Doubt it Bobby, because of the fact that Diamond hasn’t really pitched well in almost three years and has only been recovering from Tommy John for one year.  He could put himself on the short list of emergency starters as he heads up to Oklahoma, but Harrison, Feldman and McCarthy are likely rounding out that rotation. 

Manager Ron Washington has said that only Millwood and Padilla have a spot secure for next year. Why not secure one for Harrison?
– Jose R., Fort Worth, Texas

Harrison will get consideration, but I don’t think he makes it because of the option status of several players.  It is possible that he could make the squad while Feldman begins the year in the bullpen, though, but as far as I’ve observed, it’s going to be a free for all in terms of who wins the last three spots in the rotation. 

Do you think the Rangers could strike a deal for Justin Verlander during the offseason, considering his value may be down? The Tigers could use a third outfielder and a catcher. Maybe we could give up David Murphy and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Verlander.
– Paul B., Dallas

Are you fucking stupid?  The Tigers would laugh at that offer and then hang up.

If the Tigers were inclined to trade Verlander, I would be on the phone, as Verlander still has three years till free agency.  However, the Tigers would likely ask for a package of Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus in return.  That’s four blue chip prospects, and something I wouldn’t want to do.  I would, on the other hand, offer them Gerald Laird, Andrus, Hurley, and a pair of prospects in return.  I would even be willing to take on a Magglio’s Contract, so long as I offered them Padilla in return.  That would benefit the Tigers in that they would have essentially a one year commitment on Padilla, and if he rocks for them, they can exercise the option.  They would gain an experienced catcher that Jim Leyland has asked for, a starter with upside, and a long term option at shortstop (though I am starting to become hesitant on moving Andrus after watching Young break down in the latter half of the season.)  I’d even toss in Joaquin Arias, whom they’ve had a man crush on for so long.  It would also allow the Tigers to free up payroll to go after whatever else they need. 

What is going on with young Hurley? He pitched decently for a month and got hurt. Now you don’t hear anything about him whatsoever, where is he?
– Aitor U., Clermont, Fla.

Hurley was shut down with a sore shoulder and will likely compete for a spot in the rotation.  It’s more than likely he’s going to be headed to Oklahoma City because of the option status on Feldman, McCarthy and Nippert.  Hurley likely will get a more legitimate shot in 2010, when Millwood and Padilla’s contracts are up (though both have 2010 options on their contracts, if the Rangers are inclined to invite them back.)

With the productivity I have seen out of Taylor Teagarden, what are the chances of him being the starting catcher in 2009?
– Jake E., Kauffman, Texas

Teagarden is likely going to be at least the backup with Saltalamacchia being the starter and Gerald Laird getting traded.  The only concern I have with Teagarden is his history of back problems, and his perchant for getting injured.

If Murphy is the first name brought up by the Rays for Edwin Jackson, then I say let’s start talking. Would you rather there be another reliable bat in the Texas lineup or a reliable arm in the rotation?
– Bland P., Dallas

The Rangers should stay the hell away from either of Tampa’s back of the rotation guys.  Jackson is inconsistent and Sonnastine would get destroyed in Dallas.  As for Muprhy, I like him, but I wouldn’t hesitate to include him as part of a deal.  In my mind, there aren’t many guys you include in a deal.  Those names are Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, Feliz, Holland, and Michael Main.  Andrus is starting to approach that territory, however.

What odds would you place on the Rangers landing CC Sabathia this offseason?
– David N., Dallas

Zero!

Do you think the Rangers have a shot or will attempt to sign someone with the caliber of Paul Byrd or Jon Garland for next year?
– Jimmy K., Houston

They’ll have a shot, but why would you want to?  Let the Dis-Astros have their shot at those two.l

With the World Baseball Classic back next spring, how do players get on a team? Do you think Michael Young will participate knowing the injuries he has had this year?
– Neta A., Longview, Texas

Mikey has expressed interest, so I don’t see why not.  He’ll likely be a bench player though.  Speaking of the WBC, I need to come up with my speculative roster for Team USA.

Is there a possibility of trading Hank Blalock? To me, it doesn’t seem like he has played first base to his potential. It seems to me since returning from his injury, he is apprehensive about getting to a ball hit his way.
– Kathy S., Cleburne, Texas

Daniels said at a recent talk at the University of North Texas (Oklahoma’s favorite warm up game opponent), that the team is leaning towards picking up the option.  I’m okay with that, as I argued that Hank should have been moved to DH two years ago.  It would allow Davis to move back to first, though I do wonder who would play third base.

Do you think the Rangers might take the same approach with Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland as teams like the Mariners (Brandon Morrow), D-backs (Max Scherzer) and Yankees (Joba Chamberlain) have with some of their top pitching prospects by having them start out in the bullpen when they first come up?
– Brad M., Abilene, Texas

Dutch is likely staying as a starter no matter what.  As for Feliz, he’s got the stuff to become one of the nastiest closers in baseball.  He’s the much likelier fit for that scenario.

Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez will be a free agent next season. How interested do you think the Rangers will be in signing him?
– Ken B., Seattle

I’d be absolutely horrified if the Rangers signed K-Rod.  Why spend $80 million for a guy that pitches roughly 75 innings for you each year.

Do you think Bradley for Micah Owings would’ve made sense at the Trade Deadline?
– Drew T., Plano, Texas

I’d have taken it, so long as a second prospect was tossed into the mix.  Remember that Bradley has free agent compensation attached to him and any trade would have to be better than the compensation picks that are coming back.

Do you think that the Rangers could maybe trade Marlon Byrd and a young prospect for the Royals’ Alex Gordon, or maybe trade Millwood and a young prospect for Kansas City righty Zack Greinke?
– Nick S., Oklahoma City

Maybe the Royals of four years ago!  What a load of shit!  Seriously, why in God’s name would the Royals trade a young, ace level pitcher for Kevin Millwood’s contract and whatever is left of Kevin Millwood?   I expect fucking better from Rangers fans, not the usual “Let’s Trade Hideki Matsui For TIm Lincecum” that you usually hear from Yankee fans…

(Gets Call From Friend Of The Blog, Jon Bon Astro, Astro Fan Extraordinare!!)

Oh what?  That actually did come up last year?  Okay, never mind.

(Hangs up)

Okay, in all seriousness, the Royals aren’t inclined to move any of their young guys.  They’re going to try and go for it this year.  I would be interested in Gordon, however.  It would all depend on what the Royals ask for in return. 

Is Chris Davis eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award, considering the injuries to Murphy and the Rays’ Evan Longoria?
– Alex E., Waxahachie, Texas

Yeah, but let’s be honest.  It’s already got Longoria’s name on it.

ACTUAL MAILED QUESTIONS

Hey Mori,

Since You’re Harping So Much On Third Base, Who Would You Bring In To Man Third Base Considering That Young Is Likely Going To Slide Over For Arias Or Andrus.  Love The Blog, Though You Should Tone Down The Amount Of F-Bombs.

–Nick, UTEP Email

I wonder if this is Nick from Studies Of Ancient China, who would show off his selection of blunt that he was planning on toking up during the weekend.

First of all Nick, Fuck You.  Second of all, Arias has no long term future in the organization, though I don’t doubt that he’s probably going to garner some interest out there based on his impressive tool set that he has yet to cash in on.  So I doubt that he’ll be a regular starter at third base unless Ron Washington begins to exercise his speed fetish again.

The third base market is shit-tastic this off-season.  At last count, it’s Casey Blake, Joe Crede, and assorted loose change.  Of that bunch, Blake is likely going to get the big bucks.  But Crede might be worth a look on a one year deal.  He plays excellent defense and hits for power.  Plus, he’s only going to be a one year patch, as I think Scott Boras is going to want a one year deal in order to re-establish his value and get him a huge deal later.  

Plus, it wouldn’t be a long term commitment that would prevent Michael Young from sliding over to third base in 2010 to allow Elvis Andrus to play shortstop.  

MORI POVICH,

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE BOSTON TO ACQUIRE JAKE PEAVY?  WOULD CRISP, LUGO, BOWDEN DO THE TRICK?

JESSE (who evidently likes to email shit from his iPhone.)

First of all, where the fuck do you get off calling me a hack talk show host who likes to give out paternity tests and trips to boot camp to teenagers?

Second, that is a shit-tastic deal.  Crisp would be a decent inclusion for San Diego considering their lack of centerfield prospects, but the purpose of getting rid of Peavy would be to cash in and save on payroll, which Lugo wouldn’t do.

As for Bowden, he’s okay, but far from great.  Any deal would have to begin with Clay Buchholz, and likely Lars Anderson and Jed Lowrie as well.  The Red Sox would probably be willing to part with Buchholz, but Anderson and Lowrie would be too expensive, even if the Padres were willing to send back what the fuck’s his name, oh, Khalil Green back in return.  That’s not much of an offensive improvement, and it’s more salary and less team control than Lowrie would bring.  That mean’s it’s down to Anderson, and he’s arguably the best first base prospect in the minors.  I don’t think Boston will part with him, and ultimately, that’s what would kill any deal, even if the Red Sox offered to make up more in quantity by including lesser names.

Okay, another blog post coming later tonight!

Comments (5)

Pennies For Your Peavy?

October 4, 2008 at 5:22 pm · Filed under AL West, Arizona Diamondbacks, Dan Haren, Elvis Andrus, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, John Mayberry Jr., John Whittleman, Jose Vallejo, Kason Gabbard, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Omar Poveda, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, The Rangers Report

Editors Note:  Upon Reading The Title, I Have Found It Sounds Vaguely Dirty…

Actually, it’s not so far fetched an idea, seeing as the Padres, who are rumored to be cutting payroll and have discovered that they aren’t as deep in the farm as they would have thought they were, are trying to pawn off any parts in hopes of getting back the missing pieces that they would hope would be able to contribute to the next great Padres team.

And Peavy is a great young pitcher with tremendous upside.  And, if the Padres are thinking about moving him, as mentioned by Buster Olney, he would give the Rangers their first young ace pitcher since Kevin Brown last pitched here.

However, there is a problem.

San Diego has had a horrific time in the draft the last few years, as they have tended to stay away from high priced talent, often times overdrafting a few times in an attempt to stay around slot.  And while they will occassionally splurge on a talent they feel is worth it (Matt Latos in 2007), rarely do they often pay up for the bigger name talent that falls.  Which makes no sense, as San Diego has numerous advantages, namely good weather, pleasent working conditions, and a great ballpark for pitchers.  Why not use that to your advantage?

In any case, San Diego’s farm system is lacking in terms of impact talent.  That’s where Peavy comes in.  In shopping Peavy, the Padres are hoping to cash in on the fact that Peavy has several years left before free agency, and is young.  They’re hoping to get multiple prospects in return for the 2007 Cy Young winner, hoping to beat the Dan Haren bounty that the Diamondbacks gave up.

And therein lies the problem.

These are two totally different circumstances.

For starters, here is more or less what I have classified the Dan Haren deal in terms of prospects:

The Diamondbacks gave up two Grade A Prospects (OF Carlos Gonzalez and LHP Brett Anderson), two Average Positional Prospects (OF Chris Cunningham and 1B Chris Carter), along with two Average To Below Average Arms (LHP Dana Eveland and RHP Greg Smith).  It’s likely that San Diego would try to obtain three Grade A’s.  That’s unacceptable, even if prospects are overvalued, and especially since San Diego has another offer that will be taken into account: the Johan Santana deal, which gambled on upside more than anything else.  Peavy is also significantly worse on the road (in which he posted a 4.28 ERA, though this maybe have been a result of a poorer outfield defense behind him.)

The salary in terms of both pitchers is also insane as well.  Part of the reason why Haren was so attractive was that he was so damn affordable.  Haren’s salaries are $4 million for 2008, $5.5 million in 2009, and a option for $6.75 million in 3020.  Peavy, on the other hand, earns salaries of $8 million for 2008, $15 million in 2009, $16 million in 2010, $17 million in 2011, with a $22 million option for 2012.  That’s a hell of a lot more money than Haren was to be paid, and you can be damn sure that the Padres will not be picking any of that up.

Another factor that complicates things is that Peavy has to approve any deal.  That likely means the exercising of his 2012 option in order for him to waive his no trade clause.

So, there in lies the problems with making a deal.  The Padres will demand several top prospects, with Josh Hamilton potentially topping that list.  Texas will demand leinency because of the financial cost.  San Diego will say that they will shop their ace elsewhere.  Texas will likely say go right ahead, daring the Padres to contact the Red Sox, Dodgers, Athletics, and Yankees, teams that can either weather the cost or the prospect depth, only to find out that the offers won’t be any better.

So what would I do, in exchange for Peavy.

I would give up a Grade A prospect, letting San Diego choose bwtween Julio Borbon, a speedy centerfielder currently in Double A Frisco, or Elvis Andrus, arguably the best shortstop prospect in the minor leagues.  Or, if they want, I’d allow them to pick between Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Max Ramirez, two of the four catching prospects.

As for the pitching arms, I would include Eric Hurley, who I would be really reluctant to give up, seeing as how he’s got good stuff, but he’s a bit flyball prone.  He could be a Number Two in that ballpark, especially with a good outfield defense behind him.  Another arm I would include is Omar Poveda, a solid right hander that could also greatly benefit form the chance in leagues, and should contribute to San Diego come 2010.  I would also allow San Diego to choose a pair of arms from a list:  Kason Gabbard, Doug Mathis, Zach Phillips or Michael Schlact.

So that gives up a position prospect and three pitchers, one of which is excellent, the other two of which are marginal, but could be something, much like Eveland and Smith.

Now for other positional players.

As far as outfielders are concerned, I’d give up John Mayberry Jr., who can hit for a lot of power, and have the Padres choose between either Mitch Mooreland, a slugging first baseman, or Johnny Whittleman, a slugging third baseman.

That’s three positional prospects and three pitchers.  Finally, I’d toss in a player from the 40 Man, likely Joaquin Arias, who was acquired under Grady Fuson’s watch as Farm Director of the Rangers.

That’s seven players for a pitcher who has a high financial commitment, is migrating from the weaker league, and has to waive a no-trade clause.

Will San Diego do it?  Perhaps.  But it does give them something of substance for them to work with, and several of the players rank highly on the Rangers’ Top Prospect list.  It also gives the Rangers some protection as they won’t have given up their top two arms in the farm system, and doesn’t completely gut the system entirely.  

Does it seem like underpaying?  A bit.  However, Hurley, Mayberry, Whittleman, one of the catchers, and Borbon or Andrus are all projected to be average to above average major leaguers, with the catchers being rated as potential stars if the continue to hit.  It’s better than what the Twins got for Santana, and it allows the Padres to move Peavy’s deal without having to take on any of it in the future.  In return, it allows for some upside and provides some higher talent that can contribute sooner rather than later.

We’ll see how far this actual conversation goes this off-season.  Hopefully, talks won’t be immediately killed over unreasonable demands from both sides.

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Some Early Thoughts On The End Of The Season

September 28, 2008 at 11:00 pm · Filed under AL West, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Chris Davis, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, Matt Harrison, Michael Young, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Well, the 2008 Texas Rangers complete their season at 79-83, finishing second in the American League West, their highest ever finish since the Rangers last won the division back in 1999.

So what can we take away from this season:

1. The Rangers’ Young Core Is Among The Best In Baseball.  Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, and potentially Taylor Teagarden are an excellent young core that should only improve as time goes by.  All off them are on the payroll for at least the next four years, with Hamilton being the one with the most service time and without a long term deal.  The building blocks for a potential pennant winner exists in those four.
2. The Farm System Has Begun Bearing Fruit.  The Rangers have seen a great deal come out of their farm system this season to contribute to the big league level.  Aside from the mention of Davis and Teagarden, the Rangers still have Max Ramirez, who is a solid bat, as well as Matt Harrison, who showed that he could be the second coming of Kenny Rogers at times.  Other young players made it to the big club, with Tommy Hunter, Joaquin Arias, Brandon Boggs, and fan favorite David Murphy all showing some good contributions.  Warner Madrigal, who was shrewdly picked up from the Angels after they goofed on adding him to the 40 man, showed solid talent and could eventually become the Rangers’ closer.
3. But The Farm Continues To Have Top Talent.  The Rangers also have several other highly regarded prospects, which include two of the best young arms in baseball in Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, a right and left hander that both flash top of the rotation stuff.  Julio Borbon, the Rangers’ centerfielder of the future, also showed that he could at least be similar to Melky Cabrera (2007 Edition) if given a shot.  And beyond that, the Rangers had other products continuing to make noise, with Elvis Andrus, Engel Beltre, Michael Main, and Justin Smoak to name a few.
4. However, The Pitching Needs A Lot Of Work.  The Rangers’ pitching staff, notably the starters, has been awful this year.  The two most productive members of the staff arguably were Scott Feldman, who was a reliever last season, and Vicente Padilla, who was erratic.  Kevin Millwood is looking pretty much done and aside from that, there were a cavalcade of young ptichers that came in and out of Arlington this year.  Hopefully, this year did something well for their development.  Strong starting pitching means that the bullpen won’t be severely gassed by the time June comes around…which is exactly what happened for the Rangers.

However, I feel that overall, the Rangers have done a lot of things right.  The rebuilding effort undertaken by Jon Daniels a year and a half ago is now starting to show some promise, especially if the Rangers can acquire solid talent to augment the farm’s core.  Staying away from unwise free agent dealings would be another good idea, though I feel that Texas is somehow going to try and swing for the fences with the Sabathia/Sheets/Burnett trio of free agent starters available.  That would be a mistake, but hopefully, the Rangers can find those missing pieces, which would take this roster from a promising one to a contending one.

So, one final time this season, I say with enthusiam…

Go Rangers!!!

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A Prediction I Wish I Had Been Wrong On

September 14, 2008 at 12:11 am · Filed under AL West, Hank Blalock, Mark DeROsa, Texas Rangers

About two years ago, when Mark DeRosa has finishing up a breakout season for the Rangers in 2006, I had written in my old Fox Blog stating that the Rangers should re-sign DeRosa to be the everyday third baseman, shifting Hank Blalock to the DH spot on a permanent basis.

The Rational behind my stand was that I didn’t think that Blalock would be able to stay healthy enough to be on the field and to be able to produce at the plate.  I just didn’t see it in him.

I got a lot of flack, saying that DeRosa wasn’t this good, that he would merely be a good utility man, that the better bet going foward would be to gamble on Blalock and hope that he could resurrect himself as a third baseman.

It never happened.

Now, DeRosa is playing well for the Cubbies, who offered him a starting spot (second initially), before moving Rosie back to his super-utility ways.

Meanwhile, Blalock hasn’t played a full season in the last two years and has already been moved to first base to try and resurrect his bat.

It didn’t have to be this way.

And damn it, this is one prediction that I wish I had been wrong on.

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Pondering Ian Snell…

September 10, 2008 at 12:24 am · Filed under AL West, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hurley, Ian Snell, NL Central, Nelson Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers

One guy I left off my earlioer starting nine column was Ian Snell, who is currently in the middle of the shittiest year of his career for the Pirates.  Though the Rockies attempted to acquire Snell during the deadline (and said no to the return price of Franklin Morales), that doesn’t mean that Snell isn’t for sale.  

Let’s think about the Rangers’ predicament right now.  Currently, the 40 Man Roster is ready to explode, with several other prospects in need of being added this off-season, or risk being lost in the Rule 5 Draft in November.  Don’t think that the Rangers won’t be vulnerable, as several teams have asked for some Rangers prospects, only to be shot down.

Thus, it makes sense to use some of them in an attempt to get some pitching, notably young, cheap pitching.

Snell happens to fit that category.

The Pirates are looking to add depth all around, and are moving as many parts as possible in order to do so.  And for the most part, Snell is qualified to become a potential Number One or Two member of the rotation, if he’s able to harness his command.  At the very least, he’s been able to eat up innings.

And, Snell signed an extension not too long ago, meaning he’ll remain a Buc (or Ranger) for at least a few years.  That’s more than enough to try and make a deal.

So, let’s start looking at needs.

The Pirates will need at least a pair of pitchers back in the deal, plus at least one bad ass prospect, and some filler.  That’s no problem, as the Rangers do have some of that to spare.

In terms of the Grade A Prospect, the list is a small one:  Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Engel Beltre, and Chris Davis (already on the major league roster, but still young enough in service time to be lumped in there.)  All but Beltre and Andrus are off limits.

Say the Pirates choose one of Andrus or Beltre.  Is there one of the two I’d be more inclined to let go?  Of the two, it would probably be Andrus, who I think has a lot of helium and hype.  Not to say he isn’t a good prospect, but his lack of power numbers and his lack of plate discipline sadden me a bit on him.  Beltre is a raw product, but one that many feel could have All-Star potential.  Common comps being tossed out are Barry Bonds (Pittsburgh Era - Wiry Strength, Speed, Excellent Left Fielder) or J.D. Drew, which is probably a better one, though without the injury history.

Next, the pitchers.  One of which would have to be Michael Schlact, a tall right hander similar to those gotten in the other trades that Pittsburgh has done, one that would probably have a better chance of being a capable starter in the NL.  As for the other pitcher, it likely would have to be Eric Hurley, which isn’t a crippling loss, but it is one that I hate to make.

Types of Roster Filler would likely be Nelson Cruz, whom I believe is merely being auditioned for a trade, or maybe Joaquin Arias.

So, all in all, here’s the deal I would propose to Pittsburgh for Snell.

Elvis Andrus, Eric Hurley, Michael Schlact and Nelson Cruz or Joaquin Arias.

Some will say it’s too much.  Others will say it’s too little.

My opinion?  It’s the only move really that fits in getting a talent like Snell.

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The Lineup - Nine Potential Starting Pitching Acquistions

August 28, 2008 at 11:32 pm · Filed under AL West, Boston Red Sox, Chris Davis, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hurley, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, MLB, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

It’s no secret that Texas is seeking starting pitching.

Speciaically, durable, ace level starting pitching.

It’s also no secret that rarely do you get those guys in free agency.

So, the only way to really acquire a guy is by the draft or by trade.

So that’s where Texas will look to this off-season:  the trade market.

There should be some solid pitchers available this off-season, especially with the quality of free agents declining and the value of prospects going up.  However, the problem with having a top of the line farm system is that too often, other teams will attempt to screw you for all you got because of the fact that you have a top system.  For example, the Tampa Bay Rays asked the Rockies the price for Brian Fuentes.

Their answer was David Price, arguably the top prospect in baseball.

WIth that said, the Rangers do have the luxery of protecting certain guys from being picked, due to the strength of their system. 

Here are five guys I would declare untouchable:

1. Neftali Feliz (RHP) - Flame throwing lefty in Double A that has Ace like stuff.
2. Derek Holland (LHP) - Lefty with good velocity and control could duel with Feliz for top pitcher in the system.
3. Chris Davis (1B/3B) - Nuff said.
4. Josh Hamilton (CF) - Ditto.
5. Taylor Teagarden (C) - The top defensive catcher, the Rangers love Tegarden’s glove and with his power, many feel he’ll become a Mickey Tettleton type of catcher.

With that said, here are nine names I expect Texas to be talking about this off-season.

Boof Bonser (RHP) - Minnesota

• The Twins were shopping Bonser around during the deadline in hopes of getting something in return for him.  Bonsor isn’t an ace, but he is an innings eater that, if nothing else, functions as a perfectly good innings sponge.
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Bonser would be fairly cheap to acquire, and overall could serve as an innings eater for the Rangers, who desperately could use one.  He also could offer a bit of upside in that he’d keep his ERA near the mid 4’s, which isn’t bad coming from your Number Four.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  The Twins would gain something of value for a pitcher that they seem to have run out of patienc ewith.
• Problems:  Really, the biggest issue would be that the Twins might ask for the moon for Bonser, killing any interest the Rangers may have.
• My Best Offer?:  The Twins would likely want a prospect of some relevance, but the Rangers need to stand firm that the Twins need to be reasonable in terms of what needs to be offered.  Utlimatley, I think the Rangers could offer Jose Vallejo, a toolsy second baseman that could fill in as a shortstop.  Vallejo is in Double A and could rise to the Twins fairly quickly.  He’s also the best quality prospect I’d be willing to offer right now, as Bonser’s value might not even be worth that.
• Chance Of A Deal:  60%.  The Twins would be inclined to move Bonsor this offseason, if only to put his future arbitration worries on the heads of someone else.  All in all, I see him as an excellent buy-low opportunity, and one that could pay dividends.

Zack Grienke (RHP) - Kansas City

• Greinke is another fairly good talent that is under team control for several years.  With Grienke not signing any long term deals, nor with the Royals farm system producing anything of releveance, it would behoove Kansas City to flip Grienke for what they could get to accelerate their rebuilding process.
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Texas would get a young pitcher that could be a top of the rotation starter.  Grienke has good stuff and is showing the ability to be durable.  He’s under team control for at least another couple of years and could be willing to be extended with a newer team. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Kansas City knows that Grienke is their most valuable trade chip and getting more pieces to go with what they have already would help immensely. 
• Problems:  Grienke is going to be really expensive, and thus far Kansas City has been reluctant to trade him.  Another worry how Grienke’s past emotional problems could be twisted into a general sense of him being non-committed to helping Texas.  Finally, what would it cost?
• My Best Offer?:  Eric Hurley would have to be a piece in the deal, as well as one of either Jarrod Saltalamacchia (whom Dayton Moore, who was with the Braves, might want) or Max Ramirez in terms of the catchers.  Aside form that, it would take two more prospects, perhaps a reliever, such as Wes Littleton or Frank Francisco, and another prospect, Joaquin Arias, whom the Royals have coveted in the poast, could get the deal done.  Arias could be a decent option at second base for Kansas City, should they choose to plug him in there. 
• Chance Of A Deal:  40%.  I’ve no doubt that Texas will ask about Grienke and that both sides will toss names and figures around.  Chances are against a deal right now, but perhaps the Royals could be more inclined as time passes during the off-season and the needs of the team become more evident.

Edwin Jackson (RHP) - Tampa Bay

• Jackson is another live arm that is supposedly being dangled for more prospects.  Would Texas oblige? 
• Benefits Of A Deal: Jackson is a live arm and has shown that he can be dominant when his stuff is working.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Tampa Bay clears a space for David Price, while selling high on Jackson.
• Problems:  Jackson is so damn inconsistent, which makes things trouble when his stuff is not working.  Also, Tampa lacks any noticeable hole and they have a history of being notoriously difficult to trade with.  So what could be done for a possible deal?  The only noticeable hole on Tampa’s roster would be shortstop, to which Elvis Andrus would have to be a part of.  Perhaps David Murphy, who fits Joe Maddon’s style, could also appeal.  After that, it’s a wash, as it depends on who else Tampa and Texas could agree on sending back and forth. 
• My Best Offer?:  Andrus and Murphy, Plus A Player To Be Named Later.  That’s it.  Jackson is a solid arm, but not special, and doesn’t offer that Ace upside.
• Chance Of A Deal:  10%.  Ultimately, Jackson isn’t what the Rangers are looking for, though he could be had.

Justin Masterson (RHP) - Boston

• Masterson is the one young pitcher that I do highly covet from Boston’s system, and he seems to be the forgotten man on that team, and is underappreciated. 
• Benefits Of A Deal: Masterson could at least be an average starter, with the possibility of more if he can get a solid third pitch to go with his sinker-slider combo.  And if not, at least he could fill the role of a relief ace.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Boston would be giving up a good arm, but they need a catcher to replace Jason Varitek.  It’s unlikely that Cleveland would trade them back Kelly Shoppach, unless it’s for a King’s Ransom, and the Rangers have more flavors to choose from in terms of catching.
• Problems:  Boston is notorious for lowballing teams in terms of trade offers, and often times try to expand a deal farther than the original intentions of the trade.  And Boston would likely demand Taylor Teagarden, while Texas would counter with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which could lead to a lengthy disagreement that could end nowhere. 
• My Best Offer?:  For starters, I would actually offer to take half of Julio Lugo’s bad contract back.  Lugo could function as an overpaid utilityman, and would likely see time at third, short, and second, allowing the Rangers to rest their infielders.  Second, I’d include Jarrod Saltalamacchia as part of the deal.  Taylor Teagarden is a more valuable prospect, but he’s also the one catcher among the bunch that Texas wants to keep.
• Chance Of A Deal:  50%.  Texas and Boston had discussions over catchers, but those talks ended when Boston asked about Teagarden and nothing else seemed to be able to come to fruition.  Boston and Texas will resume negotiations this off-season.  We’ll see how far they go.

Shawn Marcum (RHP) - Toronto

• Marcum is rumored to be a person to be shopped around in a trade by the Jays, in hopes of reloading the team, rather than rebuilding.
• Benefits of A Deal:  Marcum is relatively young and would be under Rangers control for at least three years.  He’s shown the capacity to eat innings and could slot in nicely near the top of the rotation.
• Why The Team Could Be Interested:  Toronto would gain some young, cheap talent, all the while targeting some back of the rotation help that could benefit them.  Thanks to their defensive ability, Marcum is rather replaceable and his value is high.
• Problems:  Marcum isn’t all that great of a pitcher, as he benefits a lot from his defense, which would take a hit if he were to come over to Arlington.  Another issue is that because the illusion of Marcum is far from what Marcum is, and that illusion is overpriced.  Also, Toronto and Texas have duked it out in the past over player valuation (Kevin Mench), and relations remain strained still.
• My Best Offer:  I’d tell Toronto to pound sand, to be honest.  But if I really HAVE to come up with a deal, I’d offer them a package centered around John Mayberry Jr., a power hitting right fielder in the Texas system that is now emerging as a Jermaine Dye.  It’s likely that the Jays would want more, so I’d send them some other products, like Omar Poveda, a Rangers prospect in Low A that is roughly similar to Marcum or Eric Hurley, plus  Brendan Garr, a top relief prospect that touches 96, and Joaquin Arias, who could start at shortstop right now for Toronto.
• Chances Of A Deal:  10%.  Marcum doesn’t really fit what the Rangers would want, nor do I think that both sides can really match up in terms of a talent for talent match.  Toronto seems like they want to strike a home run on any trade of Marcum, and to be honest, when it’s all said and done, I really don’t think that Marcum is the type of pitcher the organization needs to be hunting for anyway.

Roy Halladay (RHP) - Toronto

• Toronto is in a bit of a transition, and could move their ace for a nice prospect package that would help the team in the short and long term.
• Benefits Of A Deal:   Halladay is a proven innings eater, keeps the ball in the park, throws strikes and all in all is a quality pitcher that could head up the rotation. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Halladay would bring back an impressive prospect package that would allow the Blue Jays to fill multiple holes with cheap talent. 
• Problems:  Toronto and the Rangers have had issues over dealings in the past, which doesn’t help the matters at all.  Plus, the bigger issues is that Hallady is over 40, he’s only signed for this coming and the following season, and his ERA at Rangers Ballpark and at Angels Stadium is over six. 
• My Best Offer?:   I’m not sure what I would want to give up.  It’s likely that Toronto would demand Feliz, Holland, or Davis, to which I’d tell them to go pound sand.  However, I would offer a solid package of John Mayberry Jr., Eric Hurley, Frank Francisco and their choice between Max Ramirez, a solid hitting prospect, or Omar Poveda, a good pitching prospect in the mold of Shawn Marcum. 
• Chance Of A Deal:  40%.  I think there is a chance that the Rangers could wind up with Halladay, but why would you want to at this point in his career?  I’m not certain that he’s worth a prospect package that big.  The next guy is…

Matt Cain (RHP) - San Francisco

• The Giants need help in multiple positions, and with Cain being their most most valuable trade chip.
• Benefits Of A Deal:   Cain is the young ace the Rangers need to head the rotation.  He’s entering his prime, he’s under team control for three years (two plus an option), and would be around when the Rangers’ young guns, Feliz and Holland, arrive.
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Though it’s hard for them to be trading away their past ace, Cain does bring them a lot of value, especially in terms of positional players, which the Giants sorely lack.  They’ve been able to develop pitching, however, and would gain one in the trade.
• Problems:  It’s the Giants.  How crazy of a package might they demand that would kill a deal?  And how commited would they be willing to break up the Cain-Lincecum two headed monster, even if it meant it would help the team.
• My Best Offer?:  Hurley would have to be in the deal, as would Andrus.  Mayberry could also be included as well, which give the Giants a Top Prospect And Two Very Good Prospects.  From there, it would be a working of minor players to be exchanged, though it’s very likely that the Giants could try to demand Chris Davis in a deal, which would be a deal breaker.  My final offer, in the end, would be Andrus, Mayberry, Hurley, and two player to be named laters.
• Chance Of A Deal:  60%.  San Francisco is likely on the short list of teams the Rangers plan on calling, and it’s possible that if the GIants, viewing the division as winnable and the hole in their rotation replacable, could agree if it would vault them ahead of Los Angeles, San Diego and Colorado.

Scott Kazmir (LHP) - Tampa Bay

• The Rangers could make an offer on Kazmir, who was briefly shopped at the GM Meetings, but only for a elite package of talent in return.  This offer was most recently tossed about by Jamey Newberg, so I’ll entertain it. 
• Benefits Of A Deal:  Kazmir would be under Rangers control for four years, with Kazmir signed for $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011, and $13.5 million in 2012 (or a $2.5 million buyout).  Kazmir would be a legitimate top of the rotation starter and is young enough that he’ll still be around when Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, who are among my five untouchables, would arrive to Arlington. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Tampa actually could afford to lose Kazmir considering that they have David Price and Jeremy Hellickson in the system, both of whom can be great additions to the Tampa Rotation.  It would also keep costs down for the Rays, who have to be careful with their budget due to their financial considerations. 
• Problems:  Andrus, Murphy, and perhaps John Mayberry Jr, who could play right field and is relatively cheap.  After that, it’s a wash, as it depends on who else Tampa and Texas could agree on sending back and forth. 
• My best offer?  Andrus, Murphy, Mayberry, with the offer of either Kasey Kiker or two player to be named laters as the final piece.
• Chances Of A Deal:  5%.  I think Tampa would at least hear out Texas, but at the end of the day, they aren’t nearly in the same straits as San Francisco, so this will likely remain a wet dream to Ranger fans.

Scott Olson (LHP) - Florida

• The Rangers could make an offer on Kazmir, who was briefly shopped at the GM Meetings, but only for a elite package of talent in return.  This offer was most recently tossed about by Jamey Newberg, so I’ll entertain it. 
• Benefits Of A Deal:  In the past, Olsen has been a above average left hander that has proven that he has the skill to dominate and get guys out.  He’s also been rather durable as well and is also entering his prime years as a starter. 
• Why The Team Would Be Interested:  Florida is interested in doing this deal solely because of monetary reasons, as Olsen is arbitration eligible. 
• Problems:  Florida is notorious for asking for the moon on their players and would demand near prohibative amounts of talent in exchange for a young starter.  Also, Texas and Florida attempted to get a Beckett deal, but Texas was angered after Florida secretly took the Texas offer and shopped it around in hopes of upping the price, which they did from Boston.  Lastly, and this has to deal with Olsen himself, aside from the character issues in the past, his strikeout totals are dropping, though he is becoming a more complete pitcher.
• My best offer?  God knows what crazy shit Florida would ask.  It would likely be a request for one of Holland and Feliz, which I wouldn’t do, John Mayberry Jr., Andrus, and potentially Taylor Teagarden.
• Chances Of A Deal:  5%.  Look for it to be disucssed, but in the end, I think Florida will probably price Olsen out of nearly everyone’s market unless they come down on their price.

So there you have it, a list of options that the Rangers could commit to following this season.  With the need for a quality ace at the top, it makes some sense to trade some of the farm wealth to fill that role.  Keep in mind, which prospects are valuable, they do expire, and not all work out.  So in the end, protect those that you feel can add to the organizations future.  Ditch the rest for parts that can help out the untouchable.

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Running Up The White Flag

August 13, 2008 at 10:54 pm · Filed under AL West, Ben Sheets, Boston Red Sox, CC Sabathia, Derek Holland, Justin Smoak, MLB, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Texas is officially out of the WIld Card Race.

I think that may have been the case all along, which is why Daniels and Co. didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline.   It may have been one final shot to see just what this roster could do.

And as it turns out, it’s not much different than what the Rangers had been seeing.

A big problem has been the implosion of the rotation, which has seen five rookies starting on it this season, and has three-fifths of the Opening Day rotation hurt.  This in turn has severely taxed the bullpen, resulting in it’s own implosion.

THe offense appears to be rolling on all cylinders, though a replacement for production at third base needs to be addressed this off-season.  The Rangers will have to make a move at catcher and moving Gerald Laird and possibly one of the Saltalamacchia-Ramirez combo would do wonders at improving the starting rotation.

I do expect the Rangers to also cut some dead weight at the roster.  Everyone that needed to be added to the 40 Man roster already has been, with the exception of John Mayberry Jr, who could wind up starting in left or right field come next year.  The cutting of dead roster spots not only makes it easier to claim talent off of waivers or exploit the Rule 5 Draft, it also makes signing free agents easier and not have to deal with designating a talent for assignment for someone else.

Overall, it’s a better season than most expected.  I’m hoping that a .500 record, and maybe a second place finish, would be a great way to finish off the year.  At the very least, it builds momentum for 2009.

Draft Picks Down To The Wire

The General consensus is that the Rangers are going to sign Justin Smoak and Robbie Ross, their first and second round pick.

If so, they need to hurry it up a bit.

THe deadline is Friday and there has been virtually no news on Smoak and only a random quote from Ross, who feels optimistic on a deal being struck.

Smoak, a first baseman, and Ross, a left handed pitcher, both are highly regarded talents and both would go a long way towards helping the Ranger organization.

One complicated bit of business is that of Harold Martinez, who seems gung ho about the Rangers giving him first round money or him going to the University of Miami.  I think Texas shoudl go ahead and pony up, as Boston and New York have done the exact same things.

In the prsopects race, you can’t afford to fall behind.

Powerful One-Two Punch Developing At Frisco

The Rangers have a powerful one-two pitching punch at Frisco with Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland now pitching in the same rotation.

Feliz you all know.  Holland, however, is a left handed pitcher that can throw in the mid 90’s and compliments it well with two breaking pitches and clean mechanics.

2011 is their projected date.  By then, a Major League ready staff should also have Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, and Brandon McCarthy all ready for them to join in.

Making A Play For A Milwaukee Ace?

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested that Rangers president Nolan Ryan will convince club owner Tom Hicks to spend this winter.  It’s likely that Ryan will target either C.C. Sabathia or Ben SHeets. 

I’m not against it, as the Rangers will have Padilla’s and Millwood’s contracts potentially leaving the books after 2009.  However, a lot of the politics in signing one or the other depends on the draft pick we get in 2009, as anything from 16 on can be lost in compensation.  Texas currently has the 18trh Pick in the 2009 Draft.  That could change, depending on whether or not Milton Bradley and Eddie Gaurdado stay, as both currently merit Draft Pick Compensation.  Either that or we do the Boston approach, meaning we pick off the top talent falling into the later rounds.

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