Selling Childhood Cheaply

June 14, 2009 at 9:22 pm · Filed under MLB

Programming Note: The Rangers Report Will Be Back Next Week, As I’m Recharging After The Draft

I am not a parent.  A godparent, but not a actual parent.  So I don’t have the credability when it comes to what I think a parent should do.

However, the Bryce Harper situation that is developing has caught my attention.

Harper, if you don’t know, is a young catching prospect that has a rare combination of speed, power, and the ability to hit for contact.  ANd while he’s already 6-3, his bat is still regarded to be excellent for a first baseman, if he needs to move that route.

Harper has recently gotten press in Sports Illustrated and other news media about his baseball gifts, and would be projected to be the Number One Overall Pick in the 2011 Draft.

Except he’s not going to wait that long.

Harper has enrolled at the College of Southern Nevada, and will take the exam for his GED this summer.  Because he would be attending classes, Harper would become eligible not for 2011, but for next year’s draft.

I can’t help but wonder if his parents had a say in this.  Well, his parents and his agent (Scott Bora$).

The thing that distrubs me is that the kid is essentially bypassing two years of his life in order to cash in quickly.  Which really makes no sense.  Harper would be the Number One Overall Pick in either draft, even with 2011 looking fairly studly with Gerret Cole and Sonny Gray in it.  Harper wouldn’t even have any illusions of what Stephen Strasburg would be paid, because he is essentially a prep player, and the track record is not as long.

So, is this really about a kid wanting to turn pro because he is bored at the current competition level, or is there a underlying current of greed?  Are his parents endorsing the move because of the potential riches that await their son next year if he were to come out?

Is it simply a desire to strike while the iron is hot, thanks to Sports Illustrated?  The hype would still be there, and it’s been around since Harper was 14.   It would be even more insane over a couple of years, as ESPNU would be broadcasting games and be sending out Peter Gammons to do a folksy featurette on Baseball Tonight, where he would be comparing him to god knows which Red Sox legend.

Is it a desire to get their son against better competition?  If that’s the case, why not have Harper participate in USA Baseball or one of those Perfect Game camps.  I know it is community college, but it’s still a much more advanced level of competition than Harper is used to.  If he fails, he hurts his stock.  If he succeeds, well, where else is he going to go?

I can’t help but wonder if this really is in Harper’s best interest.  I’m all for someone going off and leading their life.  But there are too many outside factors, from Harper’s Parents, His Representation, and His Media Image that all appear to be pushing for this to happen.  If it succeeds, then Harper benefits enormously.  But the risks are very stacked against him, and could destroy all that he has worked hard to gain.  What would be the harm in waiting?  The money is going to be there.  Enjoying your time as a kid is a precious commodity, and one that Harper seems to be selling cheaply.

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Hicks’ Loan Default Could Open Up An Ownership Change

April 4, 2009 at 12:00 am · Filed under AL West, MLB, Texas Rangers, The Rangers Report

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Notes Around Spring Training

February 21, 2009 at 1:41 am · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Adam Dunn, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Brett Gardner, Cheesecake, Cleveland Indians, Josh Willingham, MLB, Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees, Nick Swisher, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals

Notes Around Spring Training

The Diamondbacks Continue To Screw With Juan Cruz

 Thanks to the recent lack of interest in several players due to draft pick compensation, the League is considering allowing Type-A free agents to be part of sign-and-trade deals, which hasn’t been done in baseball before.  The two players that have been screwed the most by this have been Diamondbacks Orlando Hudson and Juan Cruz.  Hudson just signed with the Dodgers, netting the Snakes two extra draft picks.  However, the Diamondbacks are willing to do it for Cruz…one one condition.  They will hold out for a significant prospect in return.  Now that’s just bullshit.  The Diamondbacks have shown for weeks that they have had no intention of bringing Cruz back.  Now, in order for him to go elsewhere, they’re going to extort another team to get him?  That said, this deal can only work if two things occur.  1) The Acquiring Team Negotiates The Contract With Cruz and 2) Proper Compensation Is Worked Out And Agreed Upon With The Diamondbacks BEFORE Any Contract With Cruz Is Finalized.

Odalis Perez Forgets He’s Odalis Perez

After agreeing to  minor league deal, Odalis Perez ahs apparently changed his mind, stating that he won’t report to spring training with the Nationals until they give him a major league deal.  What the hell caused this?  I’m guessing that Perez wanted a little more money, similar to Tim Redding’s deal.  Perez has had issues in the past whenever one thing or another about his deal or playing time have been affected.  However, Perez has signed a legal binding contract and will have to either get his release or retire.  He’s got no leverage.

Indians Sorting Positional Mess

The Indians have several positional conflicts coming up in the next year or so.  Specifically, catcher, first base, designated hitter and the outfield corners.   The Indians currently have Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, and Travis Hafner manning catcher and DH respectively, with Ryan Garko doing something at first.  However, the Indians have several prospects that are making their way up the ladder.  For starters, they obtained top prospects Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta, a catcher and a outfielder/first baseman that project to be above average regulars.  They also have Beau Mills, a first baseman that probably should be a DH, who should be ready soon.  That means that there is going to be a lot of movement coming in the next couple of years.

In terms of Santana, Martinez will likely wind up exclusively at first base, with him still catching the occassional game.  Shoppach is likely going to be dealt in the next year or so, I’m betting.  The long debated shift of Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabral will probably take place sooner or later, depending on how long they decide to dick around with it.  And LaPorta can play left field, or at the very least fake it. 

The big issue is what to do will Mills, and conversely, Hafner.   Hafner is still on the books for a couple of more years, and by all intents and purposes, is pretty much done.  However, the Indians probably won’t eat the contract, but won’t block Mills unless there is absolutely no room for him.  Tough call.  You might see Hafner in a salary dump at some point in the future, or at the very least in a trade of bad contracts.  However, you can’t deny this:  that Indians lineup should remain strong and possibly even stronger in a couple of years.

Rangers Name Their Starting Rotation

The Rangers have already set their starting rotation, before any actual games take place.  It’s going to be Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison, and Brandon McCarthy.  I don’t have any issues with it other than the fact that Feldman is going to start off in the rotation.  That doesn’t seen like a wise idea.  Feldman had a huge innings jump, going from 69 innings in 2007 to 164 in 2008.  I’m worrying that Feldman might experience health problems, dead arm, or worse, break down.  Were I the Rangers, I might consider scheduling a DL trip, or would have started him off in the bullpen to begin the season.  Harrison also might see some problems, as he threw 116 innings in 2007 and threw over 160 in 2008.  He’d be another candidate for a scheduled DL appearance.  As for Padilla, Millwood, and McCarthy, that is a trip that could be very servicable, bordering on solid, or could result in Jason Jennings and Kris Benson making an early appearance in Arlington.  Jennings might be something decent if he’s recovered from his rotator cuff surgery.  Benson might be also, though he does have this added benefit:

 

 I expect this year’s Rangers rotation to be pretty fluid, as you’ll probably see the beginnings of the Rangers’ pitching prospects to arrive this year, with Neftali Feliz being the one with the most buzz.

Yankees Continue To Dick Around With Center Field

The Yankees plan on using Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera as their center fielder rather than actually signing or trading for a centerfielder, or just playing Nick Swisher (or Nicky The Swish as he was referred to in Chicago).  Swisher and Xavier Nady are expected to engage in a battle royale for right field, with the loser getting dealt.

Ummm, what?

While I don’t share Baseball Prospectus’ Christina Karl’s idea of moving Jeter to centerfield (Jeter is at the age most centerfielders move out of center, and who the hell would they sign to play shortstop), surely there were better options to trade or sign?  Mike Cameron would have been a nice trade, and it would have only cost them Cabrera.  For one year, Cameron is a solid addition, and would allow top prospect Austin Jackson time to develop.  Cabrera is a known quality.  He’s okay, but not a guy you want to commit to.  Gardner was one of the fastest guys in the minors, but do you really trust him to hit enough to be a regular?  I just don’t know.  At the very least, having Swisher man center for a couple of months, while trying out Gardner or Cabrera in limited doses, would have been fine.  Instead, the Yankees are gambling on Gardner and Cabrera being able to do the job.  

How’s passing on Carlos Beltran looking for you guys, Yankee fans?

How In God’s Name Are The Nationals Going To Play Six Outfielders? 

Call Jim Bowden the New John Gruden.

Only, instead of collecting quarterbacks, he’s collecting outfielders.   At the moment, the Nats have six, with Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Josh Willingham, and Austin Kearns all on the roster.

How in God’s name are you going to play all of these fuckers?!

There are only three outfield spots.  Four if you’re planning on moving someone to first base.  Five if you are having a fourth outfielder.  How are all these pieces going to fit?

Assuming that Nick Johnson is traded for a pittance (why not), first base is now clear.  The two candidates for a shift are probably limited to Dunn or Willingham.  Of the two, Willingham is probably the better option due to his balky back.  Dunn can play left field.

Next comes center, which can be decided between Milledge and Dukes.  Milledge is probably the better bet due to Dukes’ health issues.  That leaves a combination of Dukes, Pena, and Kearns to battle it out for the right field and fourth outfielders job.  Of that bunch, Pena has the smallest contract and probably should be cut.  Dukes needs the development time, so he should probably be the everyday right fielder.  As for Kearns, he’s versitile enough to play all three positions, and with the two kids having their own issues staying healthy in the past, keeping Kearns is probably for the best.

This is the only configuration that makes any sort of sense.  It’s also the most productive lineup you could probably come up with.  If the Nationals decide to keep Johnson, or decide that Pena deserves one more shot, an already bad season is likely only going to get worse.

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2008 Prospect Reports - Baltimore Orioles And Cincinnati Reds

February 12, 2009 at 2:12 pm · Filed under 2008 Prospect Reports, AL East, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinatti Reds, NL Central

Baltimore Orioles - Prospect Report

For years, the Orioles were fairly bad at the draft.  That’s not to say that the rest of the division was spectacular.  However, the Orioles either gave away picks while signing mediocre players in some hope of contending.  However, the system did manage to produce some players every now and then.  Eric Bedard, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts are all All-Star caliber pieces that should have been used to make a quality core.  However, the Orioles are fast bringing up one of the more exciting young cores of talent in the game.

The 2007 draft alone would be a success thanks to the drafting of Matt Wieters, arguable the best talent on the board.  However, other pieces picked up in the draft, such as Jake Arreita, have also proven to be worthwhile prospects of notice, though they didn’t make the list. 

So, while the present of the Orioles looks quite horrible for the moment, the future itself still looks like there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Onto the list!!!

 

Orioles Top Prospects

1. Matt Wieters (C)
2. Chris Tillman (RHP)
3. Brian Matusz (LHP)
4. Jake Arrieta (RHP)
5. Nolan Reimold (RF)
6. Zach Britton (LHP)
7. Brandon Erbe (RHP)
8. David Hernandez (RHP)
9. Troy Patton (LHP)
10. Brandon Snyder (1B)
11. Jason Berken (RHP)
12. Rick Zagone (LHP)
13. Chorye Spoone (RHP)
14. Tony Butler (LHP)
15. Caleb Joseph (C)
16. L.J. Hoes (2B)
17. Billy Rowell (3B)
18. Xavier Avery (OF)
19. Pedro Beato (RHP)
20. Kyle Hudson (OF)

 

Prospect Reports

Matt Wieters (C)

• Drafted:  1st Round, 2007, Georgia Tech
• 2009 Club:  Baltimore Orioles (MLB)
• Entering the year as the top prospect, Wieters did little to change that as he tore up High and Double A, while displaying an excellent skill set as a catcher.  Wieters has a solid swing that allows him to make good contact.  His raw power is arguably the best in the system.  He’s got solid plate discipline and also has a strong arm.  He’s also shown an improvement on his game calling skills as well.  However, Wieters’ arm strength is cut down a bit by a long release.  More of a concern is that Weiters’ size could result in him not being as durable in the majors.  Overall, Wieters is nearly ready and should become the Orioles’ starting backstop as soon as next year.

 

Chris Tillman (RHP)

• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2006, California High School
• 2009 Club:  Triple A
• The key prize in the Eric Bedard deal, Tillman has been nothing short of outstanding, putting up impressive numbers.  And the crazy thing about it all?  He’s only 20!  Tillman is one of several power arms in the system.  His fastball sits in the low 90’s and can touch 96.  It also has some nice sinking action.  Some feel that as he ages, he could possibly add a couple of more ticks on the ball.  He’s got a curveball that is a solid out pitch and shows some feel for a changeup.  His mechanics are flawless.  But Tillman can overthrow at times, resulting in him getting pounded hard when he does so.  He also wore down as the year went on, likely due to his aggressive promotion.    Tillman has some development ahead of him, in spite of the fact he’s already at Double A and did well.  Still, he’s not quite ready, so some caution should be exercised before tossing him to the wolves at the Major League Level.  Tillman is likely headed to Triple A, which would make him one of the youngest regulars on that circuit.  The Orioles likely won’t promote him just yet, however, meaning that you won’t get to see him this year.
•  

Brian Matusz (LHP)

• Drafted: 1st Round, 2008, San Diego
• 2009 Club:  High A
• Regarded to be the top pitching coming into the draft, Matusz was taken with the fourth overall pick by Baltimore, where he signed a major league contract giving him a $3.2 million bonus.  Matusz has an impressive arsenal, as he throws in the low 90’s with good movement and he compliments his heater with a curveball with a nice, sharp break and a changeup with good movement.  He’s very polished and has solid control.  All in all, the stuff is there for him to rise quickly. Matusz has really only has one problem, but it’s a big one.  He’s got one of the ugliest deliveries out there and one that doesn’t lend itself well to durability or for command.  Many feel that in time, he may need to be a reliever.  Overall, Matusz is another great pitching talent that could allow the Orioles to finally come out of the cellar.  He should be headed to HIGH A CLUB, where he could end up as high as Triple A if he’s as polished as the scouting reports say he is. 

 

Jake Arrieta (RHP)

• Drafted: 5th Round, 2007, TCU
• 2009 Club:  Double A
• Arrieta received over a million dollars to sign after dropping in the 2007 draft.  He’s look like he’s worth it after destroying the Carolina League.  Arrieta has arguably the best fastball of all the Orioles’ pitchers.  It clocks in the low 90’s, toches 95, and has good movement.  He’s big and his mechanics are clean.  However, Arrieta lacks breaking stuff to match up to his fastball.  His curveball is usable and his slider has the potential to be a plus pitch.  He also doesn’t throw strikes often, which is surprising considering his stuff.  All in all, he should be a decent back of the rotation starter if nothing improves.  However, if he’s able to refine the slider and get his curve working at least part of the time, he can be a lot more.  He’ll probably get in Double A for the year, with an outside shot of maybe making an appearance in Camden Yards in September.

 

Zach Britton (LHP)

• Drafted:  3rd Round, 2006, Texas High School
• 2009 Club:  Double A
• An underrated pick from almost three years ago, Britton looks like he’ll become a major league innings eater.  Britton throws a fastball in the low 90’s that has good sinking action.  His changeup is a solid pitch, bordering on plsu at times.  His curveball is average.  ere’s a pick I really like.  In the past year, Britton’s velocity has shot up from 86-87 to 92-93.  And his lanky 6′3” frame portends to even more gains in velocity, which could make it a consistent plus plus pitch.  There are two major concerns here.  The first is that his velocity dipped as the summer wore on.  Coincidentally, that’s probably the biggest reason that Brandon Erbe was available in the 3rd round last year.  The second concern is that, right now, the fastball is all he has.  His curveball needs loads of work, but there’s nothing in his mechanics that will prevent it from developing into an average pitch.  He also has little in the ways of a changeup, which will make him vulnerable to righties at higher levels, but that’s hardly damning for an 18 year old.  BA notes that his delivery lacks deception and in his videos you can see the ball  pretty easily out of his hand.  A solid changeup would similarly help negate this problem. 

Nolan Reimold (RF)

• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2005, Bowling Green 
• 2009 Club:  Triple A
• Reimold’s campaign was overshadowed because of Wieters, but he posted solid numbers at Double A.  All in all, Reimold’s got good tools.  He’s able to hit for good, not great power, has a knack for making contact, and is a fairly good athlete.  He’s got solid range and more than enough of an arm to play right field.  However, Reimold’s tools don’t project greatness and he doesn’t get on base all that often.  He also has problems against left handed pitching.  Overall, he should settle into the majors as an average player, not a star.  With Nick Markakis signed long term, Reimold will be moved to left field.  With Felix Pie in the majors, Reimold will remain in Triple A for the beginning of the season.  If Pie continues to struggle, or Luke Scott goes down, Reimold should get a cup of coffee.

 

Brandon Erbe (RHP)

• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2005, Maryland High School
• 2009 Club:  Double A
• After a terrible year in 2007, Erbe repeated High A and posted acceptable, but still inconsistent results.  Erbe throws in the low 90’s, touching 95 at times.  It has late boring action, coming in on opposing hitter’s hands.  His slider is an average pitch and could get better.  However, Erbe lacks a good third pitch, as his changeup remains unrefined, and according to Kevin Goldstein, he constantly is tinkering with his mechanics, which leads to his velocity fluxuating and his command being off.  He also is a flyball pitcher because he works in the upper part of the zone, resulting in a lot of home runs.  Overall, Erbe still has time to get his act together, but I’m not as high on him as other prospect hounds are.  I think he’ll be a middle of the rotation guy, similar to Jarrod Washburn.  He’ll be  joining Arrieta in Double A. 

 

David Hernandez (RHP)

• Drafted/Signed: 16th round, 2005, Cosumnes River College
• 2009 Club: Triple A
• Hernandez is a bit of a underrated prospect that really hasn’t gotten the accolades before this year.  Hernandez throws in the low 90’s, but he has a lot of deception on the pitch, making it seem faster than it is.  His slider is a plus pitch with good movement Hernandez, however, has some effort in his delivery, and many think he might be due for some sort of injury.  His changeup isn’t a great pitch, and he doesn’t use it in pressure situations.  But, the talent is there to be a good back of the rotation starter.  Hernandez is probably going to be in Triple A, but long term, if he’s not able to establish himself in the majors, other talents will surpass him rather quickly.

 

Troy Patton (LHP)

• Drafted/Signed: 9th round, 2004, Texas High School (Astros)
• 2009 Club:   High A
• Patton was the chief prospect received from the Astros for Miguel Tejada, but missed the year thanks to labrum surgery.  When healthy, Patton has solid stuff.  His fastball clocks around 89-92 with good sinking action and his slider has solid movement.  His changeup is an average pitch and he’s able to mix speeds well.  However, he’s not an overpowering pitcher and due to his small size, there have always been concerns about his delivery.  The hope is that Patton will become can become a middle of the rotation guy.  However, if he loses some of his effectiveness thanks to the surgery, he’ll be merely a decent back of the rotation guy.  My guess is that he’ll begin the season at High A to begin the season.

 

Brandon Snyder (1B)
Drafted/Signed: 1^st Round, 2005, Virginia High School
2009 Club:  Double A

Synder had an impressive season, hitting INSERT STATS.  In terms of his offensive skills, Snyder has a quick bat and solid power.  He has a knack for contact and hits to all fields.  Snyder also shows some promise at first base, showing good hands and footwork.  However, the former catcher still needs some refinement as a first base.  He also swings and misses too much and seems allergic to taking a walk, which limits his potential.  Overall, Snyder projects as an average regular so long as he makes improvements.  He’s likely bound for Double A, where he hopes to build on his progress.

 

Jason Berken (RHP)

• Drafted: 6th Round, 2006, Clemson University
• 2009 Club:  Triple A
• Berken had a solid, but unspectacular season in Triple A.  Berken throws in the high 80’s, but uses it to set up his changeup, which has good movement.  He also throws a curveball and a slider, both of which are average pitches.  However, Berken lacks any sort of projection, and will be either a back of the rotation starter or a solid middle reliever.  He’ll remain in the rotation in Triple A to start the year.

 

Rick Zagone (LHP)

• Drafted:  6th Round, 2008, Missouri
• 2009 Club: Low A
• A physical lefty from Missouri, and a part of the Missouri’s Big Three Rotation that had Aaron Crow and Kyle Gibson (both first round picks for this coming draft).  Zagone has a fastball that touches 90, but it has solid movement.  He has a slider that has great movement and is his best pitch.  His changeup should be average.  However, what stands out is his command and control, which was exceptional when he returned to the rotation late in the year and was still that way during his stint in the New York-Penn League.  All in all, he could be a solid left handed starter. 

 

Chorye Spoone (RHP)

• Drafted: 8th round, 2005, Catonsville Community College
• 2009 Club:  Rehab
• Ranked among the top prospects in the organization last years, Spoone missed most of the year thanks to shoulder surgery that will sideline him for most of this coming season as well.  When healthy, Spoone had four effective pitches.  His fastball touches 95, and his sinker generates a lot of ground balls.  His curveball and changeup are very good pitches as well.  However, he isn’t a big pitcher, which might have helped the injury manifest.  And, there is the concern as to just how much of his stuff comes back.  All in all, he projected to be a very good middle of the rotation horse.  Now, we just have to wait and see, which is unfortunately.  Spoone likely would have made the Orioles this year.

 

Tony Butler (LHP)

• Drafted: 4th Round, 2006, Wisconsin High School
• 2009 Club:  Frederick Keys (High A)
• The Skinny:  Another prospect sent in the Bedard deal, Butler did okay in the Sally League, but was far from dominating.  He was shut down in June for arm tendinities.  Butler’s got solid velocity, pitching in the low 90’s with good sinking and being able to dial it up to 94-95 mph.  He has a good curveball that has late break and is a plus pitch.  His changeup is a potential third pitch, giving him a decent arsenal to work with.  His height gives his fastball a bit of sink to it and his makeup is great.  However, Butler’s mechanics and delivery are inconsistent and have contributed to his control issues and maybe in his arm problems as well.  He also works high in the zone, resulting in him being flyball friendly.  Overall, Butler’s got promise, but his command issues make it a little difficult to project him as much more than a middle of the rotation starter.  All in all, he could be a capable reliever, though I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.  Butler probably heads to Frederick, where he’ll remain in the rotation for now.  Depending on his performance, it should provide an accurate gauge as to whether or not he’ll stick as a starter. 

 

Caleb Joseph (C)

• Drafted:  7th Round, 2008, Lipscomb
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Joseph might turn out to be a bit of a steal.  Drafted out of Lipscomb, Joseph had a decent debut in the New York Pen League, hitting for a fair average and solid power.  Joseph is an excellent defensive catcher with good hands, a strong arm, and he moves well behind the plate.  He’s got plus power potential for a catcher.  However, there is a concern that Joseph, who struggles against good breaking stuff, will hit for much of an average.  Many also feel that he might be a bigger asset in left field, though what gives them that idea is beyond me.  Joseph at the very least could be Mickey Tettleton lite.  He’s likely the starting catcher in Low A.

 

L.J. Hoes (2B)

• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2008, DC High School
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Drafted in the third round on his sheer tools alone, Hoes had a very good start to his baseball career, hitting over .300 in Rookie ball.  He doesn’t have fantastic power, but he’s got the makings of good plate discipline, and is an effective base runner.  Hoes also has a strong arm, and could be tried in the rotation if the whole positional player thing doesn’t work out.  However, Hoes is a poor defender at second base, and has seen time in the outfield as well.  There is hope that he might become passable there, but he’s not going to win a Gold Glove.  Overall, he should be the starting second baseman for Delmarva beginning the year.

 

Billy Rowell (3B)

• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, New Jersey High School
• 200p Club: Frederick Keys (High A)
• Rowell had an absolutely lost season for Frederick.  He has made no real improvements in his plate discipline and too often was chasing bad pitches.  The result has been that his high power ceiling has been negated, thanks to strikeouts and low walk totals.  He’s a huge kid and lacks speed, and while he’s got decent fundamentals at third base and a strong arm, he’s likely going to have to move to first base when it’s all said and done.  He also gets absolutely killed by lefties, creating more of a problem.  Overall, should Rowell get his career back on track, he should be something along the lines of Richie Sexson.  If he doesn’t, Ben Broussard might be a better comp.  He’s likely returning to Frederick, as he hasn’t done enough to merit a promotion. 

 

Xavier Avery (OF)

• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2008, Georgia High School
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Avery is a toolsy player that gets a lot of comparisons to Carl Crawford.  Avery was the fastest player in the draft.  However, there is more to him than that.  He has above average power in his swing, though it’s not of the home run variety.  Still, he should put up plenty of doubles and triples.  He’s very athletic, and nearly went to Georgia to play wide receiver until the Orioles bought out his commitment.  The downside of that was that because of his two sport commitment, he’s still fairly raw and has a lot of development time ahead of him.  All in all, Avery should be a fairly productive outfield corner, but that ceiling is a long ways away.

 

Pedro Beato (RHP)

• Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2006, St. Petersburg College
• 2009 Club:  Frederick Keys (High A)
• Beato had a good beginning to the year, but his year suddenly took a turn for the worst when he came back from the disabled list from shoulder soreness.  Beato’s fastball sits in the low 90’s, but he’ll touch 94 when he’s on.  His slider is a hard breaking pitch and his curve is average.  His mechanics are fairly solid as well.  However, Beato is a big pitcher and he throws a lot less hard than he did when he was begin scouted.  His changeup is not great at all, and might have to be scrapped.  All in all, Beato isn’t quite as advertised.  He might be able to become a back of the rotation innings eater in time.  He’s probably headed back to Fredrick, as I wouldn’t feel comfortable sending him up.

 

Kyle Hudson (OF)

• Drafted:  4th Round, 2008, Illinois
• 2009 Club:  Frederick Keys (High A)
• Hudson is a good college product that hit well for the Illini.  In terms of raw speed, he’s the fastest guy in the system, and may rate a 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.  He also has solid plate discipline as well.  The problem is that he’s just so unrefined as a ballplayer that he’ll take a little longer than what you would expect from a college product.  At the very least, he becomes the next Joey Gathright.  At the most, he could become a capable burner at the top of the order.  Look for him to make his debut in the Sally League.

 

Final Thoughts

Though they lack depth, the Orioles system has a top five that is arguable one of the best in the game.  With another top five draft pick assured this off-season, and even more youth added to the main squad, the kids on the farm should have something to look forward to if they make it up this year.  The only real issue with the Orioles long term is how they will stack in that division.  Tampa and Boston are two of the best talent development programs in baseball.  Toronto has an underrated, but productive system (I believe they’ve produced the most talent in the game).  And the Yankees are always there, ready to spend their way to a title.  My concern is that even with that impressive top five, the Orioles might not get anywhere higher than third.  But that’s a worry for another day.

 

 

 Cincinnati Reds - Prospect Report

After several years with one of the better farm systems in the minors, the Reds took a step back this year as graduations drained the farm.  Seeing Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce rise and have variosu degrees of success in the majors.  In return, several prospects in the minors saw their stocks rise and fall, depending on their various careers. 

The draft also saw an influx of talent as well, but nowhere near what the Reds had seen leave.  One of the more questionable picks was the drafting of Yonder Alonso, who I’m not sure where he would fit in terms of the long term future of the Reds.  Still, the farm remains more or less stocked for the continuing of the rebuilding process in Cincinnati.

 

Reds Prospect Rankings

1. Yonder Alonso (1B)
2. Todd Frazier (SS/1B/LF)
3. Drew Stubbs (CF)
4. Chris Valaika (SS)
5. Juan Francisco (3B)
6. Neftali Soto (3B)
7. Juan Duran (OF)
8. Kyle Lotzkar (RHP)
9. Daryl Thompson (RHP)
10. Devin Mesaraco (C)
11. Yorman Rodriguez (CF)
12. Zack Cozart (SS)
13. Zach Stewart (RHP)
14. Chris Dickerson (LF)
15. Tyler Cline (RHP)
16. Pedro Viola (RHP)
17. Paul Janish (SS)
18. Clayton Shunick (RHP)
19. Juan Carlos Sulbaran (RHP)
20. Alexander Smit (RHP)

 

Prospect Reports

Yonder Alonso (1B)

• Drafted:  1st Round, 2008, Miami
• 2009 Level:  High A
• A monster hitter for the Hurricanes, Alonso was one of the best all around hitters in the NCAA.  His big year resulted in him rising through the draft, in which he was drafted by the Reds.  However, some tumultuous negotiations had Alonso seeking a big payday and threatening to go to Indy Ball to get it.  In the end, Alonso realized that he probably wouldn’t do any better than where he was and eventually signed.  Alonso is an average slugger.  He’s got decent power on him and has a good swing (anyone notice lefties always seem to have good swings?)  He has an excellent approach at the plate, as he’s capable of taking pitches and drawing a lot of walks.  However, Alonso was vulnerable against left handed pitching, giving him some platoon issues.  He’s slow and also severely limited defensively to first base. Overall, the Reds probably would have been better off selecting a different guy like Justin Smoak or Aaron Crow.  But he’s not a bad pick and should be a solid contributor when the Reds are relevant.  Alonso is an advanced enough player that he should spend the year in High A.

 

Todd Frazier (SS/1B/LF)

• Drafted:  1st Round (S), 2007, Rutgers
• 2009 Level: Double A
• An underrated pick a year ago, the Reds held back Frazier in Dayton to begin the year.  After the change in power in Cincinatti, the Reds decided to challenge Frazier a bit, which resulted in his promotion to Sarasota, where he continued to post solid numbers.  Frazier has good bat speed with an unorthodox swing. He displays plus raw power, but can become a bit pull happy as he tries to hit for more power.  He’s a decent base runner that can occasionally give you a base.  With that said, Frazier isn’t a great base runner, but the bigger problem is that he’s not a shortstop in the end.  He’s been tried at first base and left field, which kills his stock because his numbers don’t merit the bat required for those positions.  He’s good enough to be able to slid over to third base, where his numbers still look very good.  He’s far more effective against left-handers.  All in all, Frazier is a solid prospect so long as he stays at third base, and overall should be more than capable to be a starting third baseman.  What the Reds might be doing is seeing his positional flexibility.  It’s possible he might be developed to be a multi-positional regular, which has a lot of value.  Frazier is likely headed to Double A, but could get pushed a little more if the Reds decide that they need an upgrade on Juan Encarnacion sooner rather than later.

 

Drew Stubbs (CF)

• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, University of Texas
• 2009 Level: Louisville Bats (Triple A)
• Stubbs looked like he was having a wasted year early on, but he got hot during the summer and finished the year hitting well in Triple A.  Stubbs is a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder with speed and the potential to draw a walk.  He’s also shown the ability to make some contact, keeping the average respectable.  But Stubbs’ attempts to shorten his swing has killed his power, but hasn’t done much to reduce his strikeout totals. 
• The signing of Wily Taveras blocks Stubbs, who could start right now in terms of centerfield for the Reds.  However, the Reds might have the same concerns as I do about Stubbs’ lack of power, which makes him less of a Mike Cameron type of ballplayer that scouts projected him during the draft and more of a Gabe Kapler type of guy.  The Reds will likely have Stubbs begin the year in Triple A and see where they go from there.  If Stubbs can regain his power stroke, he’ll be in Cincinnati in quick fashion, likely in right field, forcing Jay Bruce to move again to left field.

 

Chris Valaika (SS)

• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2006, UC Santa Barbara
• 2009 Club:  Louisville Bats (Triple A)
• One of a number of nifty infield prospects in this system, Valaika had an impressive season, hitting .317/.363/.481, while showing an improvement in his power, hitting 12 home runs.  Valaika’s best tool is that he can hit.  He makes solid contact and showed some improved power this season.  People now feel that he can average about 20 home runs in the majors.  He can play shortstop fairly well and has enough arm to stay there.  But, Valaika is also a free swinger and that hasn’t changed as he’s advanced into the upper levels of the farm system.  He’s got only average speed and his range is limited, leaving many to feel that he will better off moving to second base in time.  Valaika will probably remain at shortstop for now, as the organization really doesn’t have any long term fit there.  Overall, he needs to at least figure out how to at least run into a walk, or see his value become that of a utility guy and not a everyday regular. 

 

Juan Francisco (3B)

• Signed: 2004, Dominican Republic
• 2009 Club:  Double A
• A participant of the Future’s Game, Francisco hit .277/.303/.496 with 23 home runs and 92 RBI’s, leading the Florida State League in slugging, homers, and RBI’s before heading off to the Dominican Winter League and tearing it up there.  Francisco’s best tool is power, and he’s able to launch rockets out of the park.  He’s also got enough of an arm that he’ll be able to make plays in the outfield.  The most notable issue with Francisco is that he swings and misses a lot and doesn’t show much in terms of plate discipline.  He also lacks the range and skills to play third base, meaning he’ll probably have to move to first base or the outfield.  Thus, Francisco is going to have to show more in terms of plate discipline, or else he’s going to get tore up in the higher minors where the pitchers are fast and furious.  I don’t think he’ll remain at third base, but he should become a passable left fielder or first baseman in time.  Hopefully, Francisco’s winter ball campaign will translate over to the regular season.  Long term, he’s going to be an intriguing trade piece in some deal, as I don’t think he’s going to remain with the Reds. 

 

Neftali Soto (3B)

• Drafted:  3rd Round, 2007, Puerto Rican High School
• 2009 Club:  Dayton Dragons (High A)
• Soto was considered one of the top prospects from Puerto Rico entering the 2007 draft.  After starting the year in Rookie Ball, he hit enough that he forced his way into the Midwestern League in the second half of the year.  Overall, Soto is a nice little prospect.  He’s got good, not great power that is starting to show itself in game situations.  He also has a quick swing that should allow him to hit for a good average.  Defensively, Soto isn’t athletic or fast, and lacks the footwork and range to stay at third.  He does, however, have a strong arm and good hands, which could allow him to remain at the hot corner if he’s able to improve to the point that he’s tolerable.  Still, Soto has a lot of potential and in time could evolve into a very good ball player.  For 2009, expect Soto to return to the Midwestern League, with a promotion to High A during the second half of the year.

 

Juan Duran (OF)

• Signed: 2007 (technically), Dominican Republic
• 2009 Club: Rookie
• Thought to be ineligible to sign during the 2007 International Signing Period, Cincinnati found a loophole and discovered he was, signing him for $2 million.  Duran had a tough first season in Rookie League, which wasn’t unexpected.  Tall and lean, Duran reminds many of Darryl Strawberry in terms of athleticism and in build.  He’s got plenty of good tools, such as a good feel for the strike zone and a quick swing that allows him to hit for great power.  He’s a fast runner with solid range in the outfield and a strong enough arm to play in right field.  However, as with many international prospects, Duran is incredibly raw on all aspects of his game.  His attempts to try and hit everything out of the park result in high strikeout totals and he needs to learn to hit a breaking ball.  He sells out for power on nearly every swing, and still needs to make significant adjustments to be more effective against breaking pitches.  Overall, he could be a huge power threat in right field in the future, and he’ll probably be held back in Extended Spring Training before heading to the Gulf Coast League.

 

Kyle Lotzkar (RHP)

• Drafted/Signed: 1st Round (S), 2007, Canadian High School
• 2009 Club:  Dayton Dragons (High A)
• Lotzkar had an impressive debut for Dayton in 2008, going 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 games, and striking out 50 in 37.2 innings.  However, he wound up developing a fracture in his elbow, and the Reds shut him down for the season.  Lotzkar has one of the best arms in the system.  He has a power pitchers frame and a repertoire to match.  He has been clocked as high as 95, but sits in the low 90’s.  He throws an excellent power curveball and is working on a changeup.  But, Lotzkar is still a raw product.  His mechanics are violent and though the Reds tried to make it simpler, it’s still a work in progress.  His control isn’t great and he lacks a second off-speed pitch.  Overall, Lotzkar has great potential, as a young arm with a lot higher ceiling than what is in the system.  However, the lack of a second off-speed pitch will be a concern in the future if he doesn’t harness one.  Lotzkar will likely be headed to Dayton, where the Reds hope he’ll stay healthy to put in a full season’s worth of work.

 

Daryl Thompson (RHP)

• Drafted:  8th Round, 2003, Maryland High School (Expos) 
• 2009 Club:  Cincinnati Reds (MLB)
• Thompson had a solid year in the minors, as well as a couple of good starts in the majors before shoulder soreness shut him down.  Thompson is an aggressive pitcher that throws strikes at any point during the count.  He has a fastball that is around 89-91 mph and mixes it with a solid curveball, which is his best pitch.  His changeup is average and all in all, gives him an effective three pitch mix.  However, as a smaller pitcher that lacks any real sort of weapon, he has to rely on his command to keep him in games.  He has a history of shoulder issues, which make people wonder if he’s ultimately a reliever.  Overall, Thompson is a finished product and all in all can contribute as the Reds’ fifth starter.  However, he’s nothing special really, not at all like the more recent products from the Reds’ system.  Still, he is useful if only as an innings eater.  He’s likely the Reds’ 5th Starter come opening day.

 

Devin Mesaraco (C)

• Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Pennsylvania High School
• 2009 Club: Sarasota Reds (Low A)
• One of the most promising prep catchers available in last year’s draft, Mesaraco had a poor season, along with doubts about his ability to stay behind the plate after he put on a lot of weight.  Mesoraco’s defense suffered as a result, and his swing lost some speed on it. However, Mesoraco still has a lot to like as far as a prospect goes.  His swing still has a lot of promise and he should hit for average power.  He still moves well behind the plate and has a rifle arm to boot.  All in all, with some good nutrition as well as signs during the instructional leagues of him bouncing back, the Reds think he should be ready enough for Sarasota. 

 

Yorman Rodriguez (CF)

• Signed: 2008, Venezuela
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Rodriguez was rated one of the top talents available during the 2008 International Signing Period and cashed with a $2.5 million bonus.  In terms of raw ability, Rodriguez has more than anyone in the system.  His power potential rivals that of Alonso, and his speed is excellent.  His arm is also a plus tool, and overall he’s a great athlete that has Carlos Beltran like upside.  However, his swing is long and his plate discipline is non-existent.  So it’s going to take a long time for him to harness his raw talent.  Overall, should things pan out, Cincinnati should have a potential star on their hands.  Unfortunately, the minors are littered with players like Rodriguez, so I’ll have to temper my enthusiasm for him a bit.

Zach Cozart (SS)

• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2007, Ole Miss
• 2009 Club:  Double A
• Cozart might be able to give the Reds an option at shortstop in a few years at the rate he’s going.  Cozart is an excellent defensive shortstop.  He has solid range, good hands, and a decent arm.  His bat has always lagged behind his glove, however.  His swing is built primarily for contact, and he’s able to make good contact most of the time.  However, he lacks power and the plate discipline to hit near the top of the lineup.  Overall, he’s a solid defensive shortstop that might be able to provide some value toward the end of the lineup. 

 

Zach Stewart (RHP)

• Drafted:  3rd Round, 2008, Texas Tech
• 2009 Club: High A
• The closer for Texas Tech, Stewart actually was a fairly successful starter at North Central Texas JuCo, but was made into a closer by Tech.  The result was that he got the crap kicked out of him, posting a 4.98 ERA with his nifty 3-2 record and three saves.  He got destroyed on April 25 when Oklahoma scored nine on him.  However, he has the frame and the potential to start.  He throws a low 90’s sinking fastball that generates a lot of groundballs.  He also has a solid slider and a usable changeup.  His mechanics also show no problems as well.  All in all, he’s not a bad risk to take.  He could provide an efficient starting pitcher, or a solid middle reliever, if he gets his shit together.

 

Chris Dickerson (LF)

• Drafted:  
• 2009 Club:  Cincinnati Reds (MLB)
• Dickerson had a nice showing during a late call up to the Reds, hitting .304.  However, he probably shouldn’t be a regular unless there is no choice.  Dickerson tends to strikeout too much, and his power is more of the gap variety than legitimate home run power.  However, is plate discipline and speed are assets and he is a solid defensive centerfielder.  Overall, he’d be a valuable reserve.  However, the Reds, lacking any reliable options for left fielder, are probably going to play him there. 

 

Tyler Cline (RHP)

• Drafted:  4th Round, 2008, Georgia High School
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Cline is a big kid, already at 6-3 and bearing a power pitcher’s frame.  He throws in the low 90’s with his fastball.  While not all that impressive from a high school point of view, it has such wicked late life that it makes it a solid offering.  His curveball has potential, but it’s still raw.  Cline’s delivery also has some effort as well, resulting in him not having much control.  He also doesn’t have much of a third pitch.  And, at 6-3, 215, he’s going to have to watch his weight as he gets older.  Overall, Cline is a project, but one that could become an innings eating horse in time.  He’ll probably start off in Low A. 

 

Pedro Viola (LHP)

• Signed:  2005, Dominican Republic
• 2009 Club:  Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Signed by the Reds for $1,000 after an age scandal got him cut by the Giants, Viola is one of the better relief prospects in the Reds system.  He throws hard, clocking in the low 90’s.  His fastball has some late life to it as well.  His breaking stuff lags behind his other pitches as his slider is no more than average and his changeup is better left on the scrap heap floor.  His control is acceptable, and he does do a good job of getting groundballs.  However, he is far from dominant.  Overall, the tools are there for Viola to become a capable setup man, but that will take some time. 

 

Juan Carlos Sulbaran (RHP)

• Drafted:  30th Round, 2008, Florida High School
• 2009 Club: Short Season
• A member of the Dutch Olympic Team, made a cool half million to avoid returning to the Netherlands and to play professional ball.  Overall, there is a lot to like.  His body has a lot of projection, and he has three pitches that should rate at least average.  His fastball reaches 94 with decent movement.  He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which should be average pitches.  His delivery is fairly easy as well.  Overall, Sulbaran needs time, as all prospects.  The one downside I can say about him is that his ceiling isn’t quite as high as you might like, and ultimately he’ll be more or less an innings eating starter.  Sulbaran should start off the year in the Short Season Leagues. 

 

Clayton Shunick (RHP)

• Drafted:  5th Round, 2008, NC State
• 2009 Club:  Low A
• Shunick posted a 7-5 record, with a 2.12 ERA along with 100 strikeouts in 89 innings for the Wolfpack.  He mostly relies on his impressive command and control, but his use of a splitter also helped him improve his luck.  Along with that nasty pitch, he throws a changeup and a curveball, both of which are about average.  Overall, he profiles as a potential back of the rotation guy. 

 

Paul Janish (SS)

• Drafted: 5th Round, 2004, Rice
• 2009 Club:  Triple A
• Drafted out of Rice, where he seems to have had the prerequisite Tommy John procedure, even though he’s a position player, Janish is lauded for his leadersip abilities and intangibles.  Overall, Janish is an outstanding defender with great range, instincts, hands, and a strong arm.  He makes some contract with the bat and at times flashes gap power.  However, his bat is unlikely to carry him enough to be a major leaguer.  It’s likely that his future will become that of a utility man.  Though the Reds didn’t give him enough of a shot to try and establish him at this position during his brief call up, Janish will likely spend 2009 hopping between Louisville and Cincinatti. 

 

Alexander Smit (LHP)

• Signed: 2002, Netherlands (Twins)
• 2009 Club:  Louisville Bats (Triple A)
• Smith has long had solid promise to become a good player.  His cut fastball sits in the low 90’s and his changeup is good.  However, Smith lacks a third breaking pitch and has been inconsistent throughout his career.  Overall, Smit will likely get a cup of coffee in time as a reliever, but for the moment, he’s in Louisville. 

 

Final Thoughts

The Reds no longer rank among the games elite in terms of farm system rankings, thanks to the graduations of several players like Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Homer Bailey.  Overall, the system is probably on the line between the bottom ten and the bottom half of farm systems in baseball.  The talent here does bear some watching out for, but there isn’t anywhere near the type of talent that’s close to ready as what the Reds loss due to promotions.

Comments (3)

2008 Prospect Reports - The Pittsburgh Pirates

February 5, 2009 at 2:25 pm · Filed under NL Central, Pedro Alvarez, Piitsburgh Pirates

Won’t be in town this weekend, so all responses will wait till sunday night.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Prospect Report

Dave Littlefield and company look like they have a plan.  Which is more than what I can say about the previous Pirates administration.

The team at the big league level is still looking pretty bad, but there has been a bit of a resurgence in the farm system.  The Pirates for years blew high draft picks on talent that was going to be cheaper to sign.  In return, the system has largely gotten what was paid for, namely nothing. 

This year, it appears that there is a change going on.  The Pirates have largely avoided committing bad money to bad players that were unlikely to help the club.  They were able to cash in a couple of trade chips in Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte into assorted prospects and current players that might be able to accelerate the rebuilding.  Most importantly, however, the Pirates upped their spending in the draft.  The drafting of Pedro Alvarez, the top prospect on many draft boards, was a welcome change.  And while it got ugly briefly thanks to Scott Boras attempting to get his client made a free agent, overall the Pirates added impact talent with Alvarez and a few other high ceiling players that fell due to money demands. 

What was a problem, though, was that much of the existing talent in the system fell behind.  While Andrew McCutchen remained high and Brad Lincoln had a decent return from Tommy John, several other talents collapsed.  Daniel Moskos, Neil Walker, and many others collapsed, and as a result their rankings took a high.

Pirates Prospect Rankings

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B)
   
2. Andrew McCutchen (CF)
   
3. Jose Tabata (RF)
   
4. Bryan Morris (RHP)
   
5. Brad Lincoln (RHP)
   
6. Robbie Grossman (CF)
   
7. Neil Walker (3B)
   
8. Quinton Miller (RHP)
   
9. Donald Veal (LHP)
   
10. Shelby Ford (2B)
    
11. Daniel Moskos (LHP)
    
12. Brian Friday (SS)
    
13. Jim Negrych (3B)
    
14. Chase D’Arnaud (SS)
    
15. Jamie Romak (LF)
    
16. Robinzon Diaz (C)
    
17. Brian Bixler (SS)
    
18. Anthony Watson (LHP)
    
19. Jesse Chavez (RHP)
    
20. Jason Jaramillo (C)

Prospect Reports

Pedro Alvarez (3B)

• Drafted:  2nd Overall, 2008, Vanderbilt
• 2009 Club: West Virginia Power (High A)
• Thought to be the top player in all of college baseball, Alvarez had some minor hiccups during his season, but overall did nothing to hurt his cause.  However, the Rays were locked in on Tim Beckham or Buster Posey, resulting in the Pirates getting their man, or so they thought.  After agreeing to an initial deal worth $6 million, Boras filed a grievance over the contract, saying that the Pirates weren’t honest and that the contract wasn’t negotiated according to the rules.  After a initial salvo of negotiations, the Pirates and Boras settled on a major league contract worth $6.35 million, giving Alvarez a 40 Man Roster Spot (but ironically, making the deal worth $5.67 million with inflation), and giving the Pirates the best player in their system.  Alvarez has got a sweet swing and fantastic power.  He’s got a solid batting eye and should be able to hit for a good average.  He’s got solid hands as a defender as well.  However, Alvarez is only average at third, which results in people thinking that he may have to move to first base in time.  He also was out of shape showing up to Fall Instructionals, depsite what Scott Boras had originally said, casting more doubt as to whether or not he’ll be able to remain a third baseman.  Alvarez also tends to strike out a lot, but other than that, he doesn’t have many weaknesses.  Overall, Alvarez is another player that people feel could rise quickly due to his advanced feel of the game.  He’s a potential superstar, be it at first or third, and could give the Pirates arguably their best offensive third baseman since they foolishly traded Aramis Ramirez for crap to the Cubs.  Now that the initial ugliness is over, Alvarez can start for the Pirates’ High A Affiliate.  It’s not out of the question that Alvarez could reach Triple A by September.

 

Andrew McCutchen (CF)

• Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Florida High School
• 2009 Club:  Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
• One of the more exciting Pirates prospects, McCutchen did fairly well in Triple A, hitting well while flashing his impressive speed and defense in center.  McCutchen is blessed with an awesome power and speed combination, making him a 30/30 threat waiting to happen.  He’s got a quick swing and is showing some promising plate discipline.  He’s got great range in center and has a solid glove.  McCutchen hasn’t shown much of his power this season as he has in years past, which may be a result of him being rushed through the system.  He’s much more vulnerable to left handed pitching and has a noodle arm in centerfield.  All in all, McCutchen has done a lot of things right, in spite of him being almost rocketed through the farm system.  He should be a excellent leadoff man in the future, and at the very least could be a Kenny Lofton type of player.  McCutchen will be given every chance to win the starting job in Pittsburgh, which would allow the Pirates to slide over Nate McLouth to right field.  There is the very real possibility that the Pirates could send McCutchen down to Triple A to begin the season, in order to put off his arbitration clock. 

 

Jose Tabata (RF)

• Signed: 2005, Venezuela (Yankees)
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
• One of the Yankees’ top hitting prospects, Tabata had a rough year in which he not only had to deal with questions about his tools, as well as having to deal with recovering from a hand injury.  With all of that, plus also having to deal with the hype that comes from being a Yankees prospect, Tabata went into the crapper.  However, he may get a chance at redemption in Pittsburgh, altering being dealt in the Xavier Nady deal.  Tabata is a gifted hitter with great bat speed and hand-eye coordination.  He can hit any pitch and has no platoon issues, plus is an excellent defender with the arm for the position.  Tabata has had several issues with hand injuries that go back to his time with the Yankees, where Baseball America feels that he played through 2006 with a fractured hamate bone and wasn’t allowed to get surgery by the Yankees until he got hurt in Winter League play.  However, the bigger question is maturity, as he was suspended after walking out during a game and he had to be talked out of quitting baseball by his wife.  Still, there are some questions about his power and it may be likely that Tabata won’t hit for awesome power, meaning he’ll be an Ichiro type of right fielder. What should be kept in mind is that Tabata is only twenty and has been rushed through the minors by New York, partially in hopes that Tabata could provide help to the major league club sooner rather than later.  With all the insanity that now follows Yankee prospects nowadays, Tabata should be cut some slack and given a shot at redeeming himself.  Tabata is probably heading back to Double A, where he should be thrilled about getting away from the New York spotlight.  It’s also likely that his hand issues should fix themselves now that he’s had time to heal.  All in all, he’s a guy to watch during the season. 

 

Bryan Morris (RHP)

• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Motlow State Tennessee JUCO (Dodgers)
  
• 2009 Club:  West Virginia Power (High A)
•  After missing a year thanks to Tommy John Surgery, Morris was assigned to the Midwestern League, where he did very well in his first season back, showing good control and no decline on his stuff.  He was an integral part of the Jason Bay-Manny Ramirez deal and is now arguably Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect.  Morris continued to flash what got him drafted as a first round pick.  Morris throws a low 90’s fastball that hits 96, along with a hammer curveball that was the best in the Dodgers’ system.  He also throws a changeup that has heavy movement and could be a plus pitch, along with a rough idea of a slider.  Morris’ delivery is violent and may have been a reason why he had to undergo Tommy John in the first place.  His changeup is still behind his fastball and curve, and his command is still off.  Morris at the very least could be a shutdown closer, but should he continue his development, he could be as high as a Number Two starter.  All in all, he merits watching closely.

 

Brad Lincoln (RHP)

• Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Houston
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
•  Lincoln made his first season back from Tommy John Surgery memorable in that he flashed the talent that made him a Top 10 Pick in 2006, but also showed just how rusty he was after the procedure cost him a year of development.  Lincoln was regarded to be a advanced pitcher coming out of college and a safe pick as well.  He throws a low 90’s sinking fastball that induces a lot of groundballs.  He also throws a curveball that is a plus pitch.  His changeup isn’t as good as the other two, put it does have good deception.  For the most part, Lincoln can maintain the quality of his stuff into games.   Lincoln’s size has caused many to wonder about how he’ll be able to hold up during the duration of a season.  Also, while he induces a lot of groundballs, he also is quite homer prone as well.  He also isn’t very aggressive on the mound either.  Lincoln’s troubles this season shouldn’t be a surprise considering the fact that he’s pitching in the high minors while rehabbing.  Next season will the be real season in which to properly gauge Lincoln, as he’ll be fully healthy and should have command over his arsenal once again.  I still think he can at least be a Solid Middle Of The Rotation Starter.  Lincoln should be starting back in High A, where he should benefit from the Carolina League, which is a pitchers haven.  The Pirates are counting on Lincoln to buck the trend of their recent string of shitty first rounders. 

 

Robbie Grossman (CF)

• Drafted:  6th Round, 2008, Texas High School
• 2009 Club:  Lynchburg Hillcats (Low A)
• The Pirates drafted a few talents that had fallen due to signability in the later rounds of their draft, a departure from years past.  Though they failed to land Tanner Scheppers (but they do get an extra second round pick next year), they did sign away Grossman, a Texas commit that projected to be sandwich pick before a poor senior season caused him to fall.   Grossman looks to be a switch-hitting outfielder with good speed and above average power from both sides of the plate.  He’s a good runner and has plenty of range to stick in centerfield.  Grossman is still raw as a baseball prospect and will take some time.  He gets pull happy, and the result is a lot of strikeouts.  His swing isn’t particularly good and many think that because of his size, he might lose speed as he matures.  Still, Grossman is still a solid investment to make, much better than signing a Doug Mienkiewitcz on the squad.  Though he’s got some issues that have to be dealt with, the upside is there for him to become a above average player.  He will likely be debuting at the Pirates’ Low A affiliate.

 

Neil Walker (3B) 

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• Drafted: 1st Round, 2004, Pennsylvania HS
  
• 2009 Club:  Indianapolis Indians (Triple A)
  
• Walker didn’t make things easy for himself as he struggled in Triple A, showing shakier defense and, worse of all, may have seen his immediate opening with the Pirates close thanks to the 2008 Trade Deadline and Draft. Walker is one of the better athletes in the system.  He shows solid power potential and still has good bat control and hits to all fields.  Defensively, he’s an average third baseman, showing good range, a nice arm, and good hands.  Walker hasn’t hit well at all in Triple A, as issues with pitch recognition reared their ugly head.  He doesn’t walk much, which further hinders his value.  Overall, Walker hasn’t given the Pirates the justification to keep him in their future plans.  The trade of Andy LaRoche and the drafting of Pedro Alvarez hurts Walker’s long term future with the organization.  Because both LaRoche and Alvarez are better defenders than Walker, Walker now is likely going to have to move to an outfield corner in order to stay in Pittsburgh.   Walker is likely headed back to Indianapolis for 2009, but whether or not he experiences a positional move or not is yet to be decided.  It’s quite possible that he’ll be shopped around, maybe even swapped for another organizations failed prospect.  Otherwise, it’s to the outfield for him.

 

Robert Miller (RHP)

• Drafted/Signed: 20th Round, 2008, New Jersey High School
  
• 2009 Club:  Gulf Coast Pirates (Rookie)
• Another product of the Pirates’ rededicating themselves to the draft, Miller was expected to go to North Carolina.  Instead, he got $900,000 to turn pro.  Miller is one of the most projectable pitchers in the Pirates’ system.  His fastball sits in the low 90’s, touching 95 with regularity.  His slider is a potential plus pitch with heavy breaking action.  It also sounds like he might be a cocky son of a bitch too, from what I read on Kevin Goldstein’s blog.  However, he had shoulder issues as a junior in high school, and his mechanics are violent.  His changeup is also a crude pitch and will need to be refined or scrapped.  All in all, it’s hard to project him, though the talent is there for him to be a potential dominant rotation guy.  The Pirates are likely going to keep him in Rookie Ball, after a stint in extended.  

 

Donald Veal (LHP)

• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2005, Arizona Community College (Cubs)
• 2009 Club:  Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
• Veal’s problems from 2007 carried on into 2008 as Veal battled command issues, though his stuff still remains good.  It was this promise that made the Pirates take him in the Rule 5 Draft after the Cubs failed to protect him on their 40 Man roster.  Veal is a power lefty that throws in the mid-90’s.  His curveball is a solid pitch that compliments his heater well.  But he’s just so damn inconsistent and has trouble throwing strikes thanks to his complex delivery.  He’s been observed to melt down on the mound, which further muddles things up for him.  His changeup is average at best, resulting in him being limited to two pitches.  Veal just hasn’t been able to correct his issues and it’s beginning to become worrisome as to what his long term potential will be.  It’s very likely that he could have to move to the bullpen, where his command won’t hurt him as much.  Veal is going to have to stick with the Pirates all season if he’s going to remain Pirates property.  At the very least, he can be hidden in the back of the bullpen as a situational lefty before getting sent to Triple A for some work after he’s officially a Pirate.

 

Shelby Ford (2B)

• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2006, Oklahoma State
• 2009 Club:  Indianapolis Indians (Triple A)
• Ford had a productive season both at Altoona and in the Arizona Fall League, but hasn’t distingusihed himself too much aside form that.  Ford has solid hitting skills.  He has a idea of what to do at the plate and should hit for average.  Defensively, he has good range, a good arm and is generally regarded as a solid defender.  However, Ford doesn’t hit for much power and never will.  Other than his contact approach, he really doesn’t have much offensive value.  Overall, there is much left for Ford to prove.  He probably should a solid second baseman, but he’s blocked by Freddy Sanchez’s contract.  So, Ford will likely be headed to Indianapolis, where he should be riding the shuttle back and forth between Indy and Pittsburgh, depending on the long term health of Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson.

 

Daniel Moskos (LHP)

• Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Clemson
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
• A top college closer in 2007, Moskos was seen as a first round talent with the potential for more.  However, no one expected him to be taken as the 4th overall selection, especially with better options available.  However, new GM Dave Littlefield decided to make the most of this pick, and converted Moskos into a starter.  Moskos has excellent velocity for a lefty, as he has a good delivery and good movement on the fastball.  He compliments the heater with a filthy slider and has a useable changeup for a third pitch.  He is a groundball machine as a starter and looks like he might remain in the rotation long term.  Moskos’ command is inconsistent, which is why he was torched this past season.  There are some questions about his durability because of his size, as well as his ability to hold his velocity late into games.  Moskos will take a little more time to develop now that he’s a starter and will have to have his innings limited because of his time as a reliever at Clemson.  Still, he’s a project that should yield some dividends for the Pirates, even if the new brass would wish to do this one over again.  Moskos will likely be moved up to Double A, and should see a jump in innings as well.  The Pirates hope that Moskos will at least be ready for Triple A come July, with a potential big league look if he continues his fine work thus far.

 

Brian Friday (SS)

• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2007, Rice University
  
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
  
• An advanced college player, Friday hit .287/.365/.387 at High A.  Friday is a hard worker who gets the most out of what he has.  He doesn’t have great tools, but he is able to get on base and make contact.  He’s an excellent defensive shortstop with good hands and insticnts.  However, Friday isn’t fast, nor is he expected to hit for much power in the future.  He also battled back problems for much of the season.  Overall, Friday might be able to be a good bench player, or perhaps a fringy starter if you don’t have anything better.  However, the Pirates lack a shortstop of the future, and Jack Wilson isn’t likely to be around once his contract is up, so Friday might have a shot.  It’s onto Double A for him. 

 

Jim Negrych (2B)

• Drafted: 6th round, 2006, Pittsburgh
  
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
• The local product had a great season, winning the Carolina League batting title This college grinder had a breakout season, winning the Carolina League batting title with a .370 average.  He then moved onto Double A, where he cooled off just a little pit.  In terms of his offense, Negrych works the count and waits for his pitch.  He’s put up good walk totals and he makes consistent hard contact.  He lacks power, however.  More importantly, he lacks a position.  He lacks the speed to play second, but he lacks the range and arm for third base.  Overall, he might become a productive player who you might live with their defensive lapses so long as they are able to hit.  The big test for Negrych will come this year in Double A, where he either proves he can make the jump or become simply a nice story for the farm system, but little else.

 

Chase D’Arnaud (SS)

• Drafted:  4th Round, 2008, Pepperdine
• 2009 Club:  West Virginia Power (High A)
• The brother of 2007 first round Travis D’Arnaud, Chase struggled in the Cape this year, but had a big season for Pepperdine while transitioning to play shortstop from third base.  All in all, D’Arnaud showed good range, soft hands, and a solid arm.  The tools should be there for him to be an average shortstop in the majors.  As for the bat, he struggles with off-speed stuff and tends to chase pitches, but his swing is quick and compact, allowing him to hit for contact.  He also shows good pop, but it’s more of the doubles variety.  All in all, D’Arnaud might be a good, but not great shortstop in the majors.  A decent comparison might be Miguel Tejada’s 2008 season with the Astros.  He’s likely headed to West Virginia.

 

Jamie Romak (LF)

• Drafted:  4th Round, 2003, Canadian High School (Braves)
• 2009 Club:  Altoona Curve (Double A)
• Romak led the system with 25 homers and was tied for third with 80 RBIs at Lynchburg.  Part of the bounty for Mike Gonzalez, Romak has huge raw power, allowing him to hit the ball to all fields.  He also is fairly patient and is able to draw his share of walks.  He’s decent in the outfield, but is limited to left.  Romak’s faults however lie in his swing, which is long and has several holes.  He’s also not fast.  All in all, he’s a decent prospect, but not a star.  He probably has a bit of Jeremy Burnitz in him.  This coming season should allow us to see if he should be taken seriously or not as a part of the Pirates’ future. 

Robinzon Diaz (C)

• Signed: 2000, Dominican Republic (Blue Jays)
  
• 2009 Club:  Indianapolis Indians (Triple A)
• Diaz missed a lot of time due to a broken ankle from a collision at the plate.  He was then traded for Jose Bautista by Toronto, giving the Pirates a mildly interesting catching prospect.  Diaz hits for contact thanks to a quick bat.  His slashing approach to the plate reminds many of Jason Kendall.  He is fairly athletic.  He’s also a solid game caller and decent defender.  However, Diaz lacks power and doesn’t really walk much.  He has a history of nicks and bruises that have sidelined him throughout the years.  Overall, Diaz is near ready.  Though Ryan Doumit is the catcher of the future, Diaz at least could pull the load should anything happen to him.  At the very least, he should be a good backup.

 

Brian Bixler (SS) 

• Drafted: 2nd round, 2004, Eastern Michigan
• 2009 Club:  Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
• Bixler did okay in Triple A, but failed to make his mark during his time with Pittsbrugh, who hoped he’d emerge as their shortstop or second baseman of the future. Bixler has a solid stroke that leads to him making good contact with the ball.  He is a patient hitter and waits to the right pitch to drive.  He’s a solid defender and has some power.  But Bixler’s power has evaporated and his range and arm are below average.  All in all, Bixler is at the point where he’s as good as he’s going to get, which isn’t much.  Long term, I think what the Pirates have here is their future utilityman.  In The end, I think Bixler will likely leave Florida as the Pirates’ utilityman, but even then he probably won’t qualify as for their list next year.

 

Tony Watson (LHP)

• Drafted:  4th Round, 2007, Nebraska
• 2009 Club: West Virginia Power (High A)
• A big left hander and the Pirates’ organizational Pitcher Of The Year, Watson had a decent year, but one that lacked consistency with a 8-12, 3.56 ERA.  Watson was either dominant or getting the shit kicked out of him.  Watson doesn’t have much upside.  His fastball runs in the high 80’s.  However, he does have a good curveball that is a plus pitch and a changeup that should be average.  Watson usually has excellent control, however, but the lack of velocity means he’ll have to continue to pinpoint his pitches or he’ll get torched.  At the very least, he should be a good middle reliever, with a chance at being a swingman. 

 

Jesse Chavez (RHP)

• Drafted: 42nd Round, 2003, Riverside Community College (D&F - Rangers)
• 2009 Club:  Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
• The bounty for Kip Wells back in 2005, Chavez is often compared to Julian Tavarez is that he’s a smaller pitcher.  He has a big heater in his 92-94 mph fastball that has touches 96, and he complements it with an average slider.  He’s got a quick arm action and works quickly.  However, his durability remains a concern because of his frame.  He’s also prone to giving up the long ball.  All in all, Chavez should have some value as a decent reliever. 

 

Jason Jaramillio (C)

• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2004, Oklahoma State (Phillies)
• 2009 Club:  Indianapolis Indians (Triple A)
• The bounty for Robby Paulino, who disappointed the Pirates with his inconsistencies, Jaramillio is an excellent receiver and has a good arm.  However, his bat is strictly for contact only and not enough to serve as a starter.  All in all, his future is likely that of Brad Ausmus, a solid backup catcher that you might want to manage your squad in the future.  He’s likely the starting catcher for Indianapolis.

Final Thoughts

The Pirates overall still rank in the bottom ten farm systems of baseball.  But there is room for improvement and the system is looking healthier thanks to the recent trades and the draft.  If the Pirates continue to follow their current course of action, acquiring high ceiling talent and nurturing it, along with the occasional high upside signing or two, this team could be in contention again come 2012.  Unless the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy comes to pass.  Then they’re fucked.

Comments (3)

Florida Marlins - 2008 Prospect Reports

January 22, 2009 at 12:04 pm · Filed under 2008 MLB Draft, 2008 Prospect Reports, Florida Marlins, MLB, NL East

This one goes out to Top:

 

Florida Marlins - Prospect Report

The Marlins, still without a ball park and shedding salary, have nonetheless provided respectable results for the fans that do show up for their games thanks to their intense scouting of the minors and for the draft.  This ahs resulted in a lot of shrewd, lopsided deals that have brought in serious talent to help reload the Marlins.

All that has come at a cost though.  The Marlins have seen many of their former stars leave for greener pastures once they reach arbitration, and they’ve had to undergo media relations hell every time they are forced to sell a player off.  This has, however, had the added benefit of allowing them to identify players that have no long term value for the franchise, and allowed them to get players in return.

They’ve also made the most of their draft picks, and have acquired several high impact players that could soon reach the big leagues for the next window of contention.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Marlins’ farm of late…

 

Marlins Prospect Rankings

1. Cameron Maybin (CF)
2. Mike Stanton (CF)
3. Logan Morrison (1B)
4. Matt Dominguez (3B)
5. Kyle Skipworth (C)
6. Jose Ceda (RHP)
7. Sean West (LHP)
8. Ryan Tucker (RHP)
9. Gaby Sanchez (1B)
10. Chris Coghlan (2B)
11. John Raynor (LF)
12. Issac Galloway (CF)
13. P.J. Dean (RHP)
14. Jeff Allison (RHP)
15. Jake Smolinski (2B/OF)
16. Brett Sinkbeil (RHP)
17. Brad Hand (LHP)
18. Curtis Peterson (RHP)
19. Euglogio De La Cruz (RHP)
20. Dallas Trahern (RHP)

Prospect Reports

Cameron Maybin (CF)
DOB: 4/4/87

Drafted: 1^st Round, 2005, North Carolina High School
2009 Club:  Florida Marlins (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: .The crown jewel of the Miguel Cabrera trade, Maybin hit .273/.368/.464 with 13 homers over in Carolina, but also showed the flaws in his game that have caused some doubts in him.  Then he reached the big leagues and .500, though that was inflated a bit by him going 9 for 11 in his first three games. 
Glass Half Full: Maybin has the best raw tools package in the system.  On sheer athleticism and tools, Maybin is the total package.  He’s got great power as well as excellent hand eye coordination that allow him to hammer the ball out of the park.  He’s a fast runner that is not only a on base threat, but also covers the outfield well. 
Glass Half Empty: Maybin needs to work on his plate discipline, as he chases pitches in hopes of finding a fastball to hammer.  When he tries to hit for power, his swing can get long, which doesn’t help his strikeout totals.  He also is inaccurate at times in his throws.
Projection: Average.  Maybin is impressive in terms of his raw tools and has translated some to production.  However, he also needs to continue refining his game through experience if he’s to be an impact player.  Still, with his raw tools, he might be able to hit along the lines of a Mike Cameron or a Preston Wilson, which is useful.

What He Can Be: An All-Star Centerfielder
2009 Course Of Action:  Maybin might benefit from another year of Triple A, but he’s likely going to be the Marlins’ Opening Day Centerfielder.

 

Mike Stanton (CF)

DOB:  11/8/89

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2007, California High School

2009 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6-5/205

The Skinny:  After getting more than slot money to buy him out of a USC commitment, the Marlins were greatly rewarded by Stanton’s 2007 season, where he hit XXX/XXX/XXX with XX home runs.  He was mentioned as a part of a rumored deal for Jason Bay, but the Marlins never intended to trade Stanton and got to keep their man.

Glass Half Full:  An excellent athlete, Stanton has good physical tools.  His primary tool is power, and he has already manifested it into performance.  He’s also a very good defensive centerfielder as well. 

Glass Half Empty:  Stanton is still raw as a prospect.  He strikes out a lot and is vulnerable against lefties.  He still has trouble with pitch recognition and is described by Keith Law as a “mistake hitter.”  Many also feel as he fills out, he’ll move into right field. 

Projection:  Very High.  Stanton looks like he could be a solid starter in center or at the very least a Jermaine Dye in right field.  Overall, he’s an impressive prospect that adds to a growing stable of talent that should be ready for their new ballpark.

What He Can Be:  Jermaine Dye

2009 Course Of Action:  Stanton should be heading to Jupiter, where he’ll find more advanced pitching to go along with a brutal hitting environment.  Still, his game should translate to some good, not great, numbers.

 

Logan Morrison (1B)

DOB: 8/25/87
Drafted: 22^nd Round, 2005, Louisiana High School

2009 Club:  Jacksonville Suns (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny:  A bit of an afterthought in the Marlins system for two years, Morrison has erupted onto the prospect scene in a big way, mashing for Jupiter and raising his stock significantly. 

Glass Half Full: Morrison has some of the best power potential in the system.  He hits a lot of doubles due to the league, but is going to be a middle of the order hitter in the future.  He’s got excellent plate discipline and has cut down on his strikeout totals as well.  He also is a hard worker and has rave reviews over his makeup.
Glass Half Empty: Morrison’s is limited to first base and isn’t real athletic.  He’s also powerless against lefties and will likely struggle with them eventually. 

Projection:  Average.  Overall, Morrison is looking better and better as he rises through the system.  He’s young, is showing improvement and in time could becoming a similar hitter to Texas’ Chris Davis, with a little less power, but a bit more plate discipline.

What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Order Run Producer

2009 Course Of Action: Morrison will be sent to the Carolina League, where the Marlins wait with bated breath.  Morrison could become the replacement for Mike Jacobs in the future if he continues to mash.

 

Matt Dominguez (3B)
DOB: 8/28/89
Drafted: 1^st Round, 2007, California High School

2009 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)

Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  Last year’s first round pick, Dominguez hit well down on the farm, but the same criticisms of him
Glass Half Full: Dominguez is already regarded to be a future gold glover.  He’s very smooth, has soft hands and has a strong arm enough to remain at third.  He has some of the top tools as well, and makes solid contact with the ball thanks to good bat control.
Glass Half Empty:  Dominguez has shown NO power at all against right handed pitching since he has begun.  While he’s still young, you would think that he would been a bit more balanced.  He also isn’t a great runner.
Projection: High. Dominguez will likely be the next great Marlins’ third baseman.  The Zimmerman comp I threw out last year is probably out the window, but he should be an above average starter.
What He Can Be: A Gold Glove Third Baseman That Hits Well.
2009 Course Of Action:  Dominguez will head to Jupiter, which is going to have some interesting prospects on the way for next year.

 

Kyle Skipworth (C)
DOB: 3/1/90

Drafted: 1^st Round, 2008, California High School

2009 Club:  Greensboro Grasshoppers (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws:  L/R
The Skinny: The top high school catcher in the draft was targeted by the Astros, but the Marlins wound up plucking him instead as the sixth overall pick.  However, Skipworth struggled in his pro debut. 
Glass Half Full: Skipworth is a athletic catcher with solid tools to project upon.  He’s got huge power potential and shows a good feel for hitting.  His work from behind the bag isn’t bad either, as he moves well, shows a good glove and has a strong arm.  He gets rave reviews of his game calling and leadership skills as well. 

Glass Half Empty: Skipworth has trouble with breaking stuff and he tends to strike out a lot as he tries to drive everything out of the park.  There are also the concerns that as he matures, he might have to be moved off of catcher, which would be a huge hit to his overall value.

Projection:  Very High.  Like most prep catchers, you need to have patience with them in order for them to work out properly.  Skipworth will likely take some instruction to recognize his pitches as well as to work on his defense, but overall he has the tools to be a franchise catcher. 

What He Can Be: A Run Producing Catcher
2009 Course Of Action: The Marlins will likely assign Skipworth to their Low A affiliate in Greensboro, where he’ll make his full season debut. 

 

Jose Ceda (RHP)

DOB: 1/28/87

Signed:  2004, Dominican Republic (Padres)

2009 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)

Height/Weight: 6-4/205

Bats/Throws:  R/R  

The Skinny:  One of the best relief pitchers in the minor leagues, Ceda dominated in Double A when moved into a closer’s role.  After being asked for in several potential deals, the Cubs stupidly traded him for Kevin Gregg. 

Glass Half Full:  An intimidating pitcher, Ceda throws in the high 90’s, touching 100 several times.  He also has a solid slider that is a nasty pitch, with plenty of movement.  I think he resembles a taller Jonathan Broxton.

Glass Half Empty:  Ceda has some control issues and his delivery isn’t the best.  He can walk too many batters at times as well.  He also throws too much with his arm, which results in the potential of his arm blowing out.

Projection:  Low.  Ceda is plenty good enough to get out big league hitters right now and should be a closing option for the Marlins sometime soon.

Best Case Scenario: An Excellent Closer

2009 Course Of Action:  Ceda will likely be starting the year in Triple A, as the Marlins sift through some of their other relief options to begin the year.  He’ll likely reach the big leagues come June, however, and rack up some save totals towards the end of the season.

 

Sean West (LHP)

DOB: 6/15/86
Drafted/Signed: 1^st round, 2005, Louisiana High School

2009 Club:  Jacksonville Suns (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-8/200
Bats/Throws:  L/L
The Skinny: In his year back from labrum surgery, West showed solid stuff as well as good mechanics in his 6-5, 2.41 ERA campaign for Jupiter.
Glass Half Full: West is an imposing figure on the mound thanks to his 6-8 height.  His stuff is just as impressive.  His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, touching 96 with regularity.  Due to his height, it also has a lot of downward break and results in a lot of ground balls.  He also has a solid slider that is a great out pitch as well as a decent changeup. 
Glass Half Empty: Command and control are West’s biggest issues.  This is primarily due to the fact that he doesn’t have a consistent release point when he lets the ball go.  His off-speed stuff is also still developing.  Though he did come back from labrum surgery, it is a red flag for him going forward.

Projection: Very High.  West is a huge talent that could at the very least be a middle of the rotation horse.  Eventually, however, I think that if it all comes together and his delivery is tweaked to give him more consistency, you’ll see him be an excellent number two starter.

What He Can Be:  Number Two Starter

2009 Course Of Action: West will head to Jacksonville, where he’s going to have to show more consistency and cut down on his walk totals if he’s going to take that next step in his career.

 

Ryan Tucker (RHP)
DOB: 12/6/86
Drafted: 1^st Round, 2005, California High School

2009 Club: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Tucker had a whirlwind campaign to start the year, dominating Double A before he got a cup of coffee with the Marlins (who may have wanted him to avoid Albuquerque’s hitter’s haven of a park).  Tucker struggled, predictably, and was sent back down to finish the year. 

Glass Half Full: Tucker has the strongest arm of any Marlin’s prospect.  His fastball clocks about 93 and can touch 97.  He’s got great mechanics and has a bulldog’s mentality on the mound. 

Glass Half Empty: The reason why Tucker got shelled in Miami was because he lacks any sort of off-speed pitch.  His changeup flashes potential, but most of the time it’s out of the zone.  His slider flat out sucks. 

Projection:  Average.  Tucker still has a long ways to go in terms of being a productive major leaguer.  He’ll need to spend the off-season refining his changeup and trying to find something else that will help him get lefties out.  He may just be better off going to the pen in the end. 

What He Can Be:  A Power Closer

2009 Course Of Action: Tucker is likely going to be in the Isotopes’ rotation to start the year, but he might be slowly transitioned onto a relievers schedule if he gets lit up to start the season, which he probably will. 

 

Gaby Sanchez (1B)
DOB: 9/2/83

Drafted: 4^th Round, 2005, Miami
2009 Club: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  After a bit of a disappointing 2007, Sanchez rebounded, hitting .314/.404/.513 with 17 Home Runs, 42 doubles, and drawing 69 walks before getting a cup of coffee at the big league level.

Glass Half Full:  Sanchez swings a good bat, showing a good feel for making contact with the ball.  He shows some good power and has some speed on the base paths.  He’s patient and is able to draw walks.  He’s also now become a very good defensive first baseman. 
Glass Half Empty: Sanchez has no other great tools on him.  He is merely ordinary against right handed pitching and his power is more of the doubles variety, not home run power. 

Projection: Low.  Sanchez is nearly ready and a couple of months of seeing junk in Triple A should put the finishing touches on his development.  Other than that, he is what he is, a nice player who could become a very good, but not great, contributor.
What He Can Be: An Average First Baseman
2009 Course Of Action: Sanchez will compete with Jorge Cantu and Dallas McPherson for the first base job.  While Sanchez has the talent to start in the big leagues this season, I think he’ll likely wind up in Triple A while the two slugging veterans up their trade value. 

 

Chris Coghlan (2B)
DOB: 6/18/85
Drafted: 1^st Round, 2006, Mississippi

2009 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws:  L/R
The Skinny:  A polished college product, Coghlan posted good numbers in Carolina, hitting .298/.396/.429 in 132 games with Carolina.
Glass Half Full: Coghlan is a polished college hitter who can serve as a excellent number two hitter.  He has good plate discipline, makes solid contact, and has a little bit of pop.  He has great speed on the base paths and is now a capable second baseman after transitioning for third base in college. 
Glass Half Empty: Coghlan doesn’t have any plus tool.  Overall, he pretty much is what he is. 

Projection: Low. Coghlan is near ready and could become Florida’s second baseman come 2010, if given a shot.  What He Can Be:  A Dustin Pedroia-esque second baseman

2009 Course of Action: Coghlan will be in Albuquerque for much of the season, as he’s blocked by both Dan Uggla and Emilio Bonifacio up with the big league club.

 

John Raynor (LF)
Drafted: 9^th Round, 2006, North Carolina-Wilmington

2009 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
The Southern League MVP, Raynor shows some solid tools in terms of what his future could hold.  He’s very fastball and is able to leg out singles into doubles.  He makes solid contact with the bat and even has some good power to him.  However, he lacks enough power for a corner, and despite his speed, his weak arm and outfield instincts relegate him to left field.  Plus, like Sanchez, he torches lefties, but is only okay against right handed pitching.  He’s also a bit of a free swinger, and will likely always strikeout a lot.  Still, the Marlins system lacks any sort of left field prospect, and with Cody Ross merely a place holder, there is a chance he could be a solid leadoff or number two hitter in the majors.  Raynor will likely be headed to Albuquerque. 

 

Issac Galloway (OF)

Drafted:  8^th Round, 2008, California High School

2009 Club:  Greensboro Grasshoppers (Low A)

Projected to be a first round pick, Galloway fell due to a poor senior season, but was paid handsomely by the Marlins to sign with them.  Galloway has first round tools.  He makes contact with the ball, shows solid power, and has good speed.  However, it’s thought that Galloway will likely move to right field as he fills out.  Still, he’s got more than enough of an arm to succeed there.  Overall, he’s a solid prospect that should be more than adequate to start the year in Greensboro.

 

P.J Dean (RHP)

Drafted: 7^th Round, 2007, Texas High School (Nationals)

2009 Club:  Greensboro Grasshoppers (Low A)

Part of the bounty for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham, Dean is a live armed pitcher who has good stuff.  Dean has a solid three pitch mix.  He throws in the low 90’s, and has a good curveball and shows a feel for a changeup.  He is slightly flyball friendly, but throws for strikes and has decent command.  He’s still a long way off from contributing, so look for him to start the year in the rotation for Greensboro. 

 

Jeff Allison (RHP)

Drafted:  1st Round, 2003, Massachusetts High School

2009 Club:  Jacksonville Suns (Double A)

Almost as famous as the Josh Hamilton story, Allison has been through his own personal hell, dealing with an Oxy-Contin and later a heroin addiction.  Allison has also run into trouble in 2006 and is currently on probation for crimes including grand theft auto and possession.  Nonetheless, Allison is attempting to make a comeback and has looked solid for the most part for High A Jupiter.  Allison’s stuff looks fairly good, even after being ravaged by drug addiction.  His fastball isn’t quite what it was when he was drafted, but he does clock in the lower 90’s and his curveball, always a plus pitch, still looks fairly solid.  However, as with Hamilton, there is always the chance of a relapse, which is partially why the Marlins didn’t bother protecting Allison on the 40 Man roster in 2007.  However, there remains a lot of development time to make up on Allison, as he pitched sparingly in 2003 and hasn’t pitched at all since 2005.  He’ll still need to develop a third pitch to help mix in his other pitches.  Overall, there remains a lot of work to do with Allison, and that’s purely from a baseball standpoint.  Anything else I don’t dare touch on.  Overall, Allison remains a raw product and is 23 years old, meaning that the Marlins may have to push him a little bit next season.  And that is even if he doesn’t get into any more trouble with the law.  The Marlins didn’t protect him on the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft because they didn’t feel he would either be picked or was ready enough to be carried on a major league roster.

 

Jake Smolinski (2B/OF)

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2007, Illinois High School (Nationals)

2009 Club:  Low A

The other pieces of the Olsen-Willingham trade, Smolinski is a solid hitting prospect.  He has good plate discipline, sees a lot of pitches, and shows some good power.  He also has a little bit of speed to him.  The problem is that Smolinski’s bat is better off as a second baseman, but numerous injuries mean he’s likely bound for the outfield.  Overall, I think that he could be at the very least a Frank Catalonotto type of player. 

 

Brett Sinkbeil (RHP)
Drafted: 1^st Round, 2006, Missouri State
2009 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)

Sinkbiel had a miserable campaign in Carolina this year, which really isn’t surprise as Sinkbeil hasn’t panned out into the type of player the Marlins hoped he would be.  Sinkbeil is a groundball pitcher who has an excellent low 90’s sinker.  He also has a solid slider and a decent changeup.  However, he lacks control over his offerings and nearly walked as many as he struck out this year.  He also has a big injury history, as he’s had to deal with elbow and back issues.  In the end, Sinkbeil might be best off moving to the bullpen. 

 

Brad Hand (LHP)

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2008, Minnesota High School

2009 Club:

A two sport athlete and a two way player, Hand has more upside as a lefty.  A big pitcher, Hand throws in the low 90’s, and compliments the heater with a hard curve with good movement.  However, Hand is a project, as a lacks a third pitch and his delivery needs to be refined and toned down.  Still, he’s a nice raw product that should see some time in the short season leagues once they open.

 

Curtis Petersen (RHP)

Drafted:  4^th Round, 2008, Texas High School

2009 Club:

Peterson is another young pitcher from the 2008 draft that is a project.  Peterson has a pitchers frame that projects velocity as he gets older and fills out.  Right now, he throws about 89-90, but he also has a nice curveball and shows some feel for a changeup, giving him an effective three pitch mix.  He’s got an easy delivery and good command according to Perfect Game.  All in all, he’s a bit of a lottery ticket, as the Marlins are betting he’ll have more now stuff down the line.

 

Eulogio De La Cruz (RHP)
Signed: 2001, Dominican Republic (Tigers)
2009 Club: Florida Marlins (MLB)

A hard-throwing right-hander acquired in the Miguel Cabrera deal, De La Cruz was inconsistent in 2009, looking downright dominant at times while looking awful at others.  Overall, De La Cruz’s has great stuff, with a fastball that clocks in the high 90’s, along with a great curve, but his control is just untrustworthy.  Overall, I think he’ll leave Florida with the big league squad, but he won’t be in the mix for the closer’s job.  Rather, look for him to compete for the 7^th or 8^th inning job.

 

Dallas Trahern (RHP)
Drafted: 34^th round, 2004, Oklahoma High School (Tigers)

2009 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)

A piece of the Miguel Cabrera haul, Trahern was shelled in Triple A for much of the season.  Like Sinkbeil, Trahern is also a groundball pitcher, who has a low 90’s sinker.  He has also throws a decent changeup and slider to help offset the pitch.  However, like Sinkbeil, he doesn’t strikeout many and he also has the annoying tendancy of giving up the long ball, giving up 20 dingers last season.  Overall, I think he might make a suitable back of the rotation starter, as he can eat innings, but this season is a make or break one for him. 

 

Final Thoughts

For the most part, the Marlins have done pretty well for themselves in their trades and their drafts.  However, the current rate of success is unsustainable, as the Marlins are bound to get the occasional bust, as well as seeing the occasional prospect go away.  And while they’ve done well in getting value in their trades, that also is unsustainable, as they are bound to get fucked over at some point in time.  In other words, the Marlins should look into getting a ballpark soon, or a more desirable ownership situation.  For while the front office has worked wonders thus far, it can’t keep it up forever.

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Michael Young Moves To Third, Impact On The Rangers

January 15, 2009 at 9:03 pm · Filed under AL West, Elvis Andrus, MLB, Michael Young, Texas Rangers

After days of drama, salvos fired between Young’s camp and the Rangers’ through the media, the overcritical response from the local media to Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels, and the overcritical response from the national media to Michael Young, Young has agreed to move to third base for the Rangers, ending quite possibly the biggest drama of the off-season and concluding the longest runon sentance in the history of this blog.

Young moving to third base solves to issues for the Rangers:

1. Having to find a long term fit at third base - Because the Rangers lack a third baseman in the system, it was pretty much going to be move Young to third or put up with Travis Metcalf’s bat for a season.  It also saves the Rangers from gambling on Joe Crede holding up for a full season. 
2. Clearing The Way For A Better Defensive Shortstop - Though I think Young is actually fairly servicable at shortstop, there are certainly better options out there that could help the Rangers out long term.  Elvis Andrus, the Rangers’ top shortstop prospect, is nearly ready, though the bat isn’t quite going to be all that great.  Though his cieling is Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera might be a more reasonable comparison.  And if Andrus isn’t ready, the Rangers still have Joaquin Arias kicking around and out of options and in need of a job.  They also could bring in a outside shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, though he would cost the team their second round pick.

The move takes advantage of Young’s strengths (arm, glove), while cutting down on his weaknesses (declining range).  His bat is a bit weaker at third base, but overall the defensive improvement should more than help it out.  It will be odd, however, watching the middle infield without Number 10 somewhere out there for the first time in almost eight years.

This also gives the Rangers some other roster flexability to play with.  It allows them to use Hank Blalock exclusively at third base, and in the event Blalock goes down again, the Rangers can use Jarrod Saltalamacchia at DH or First Base, allowing Chris Davis to play third and allowing Young to move to DH.  Young also could be allowed to play shortstop in the event of an emergency as well, though that would likely set off all sorts of shit off in the Metroplex media.

So, like it or not, Elvis Andrus is coming, perhaps not as soon as management would think.  However, in the meantime the Rangers’ middle infield appears set for the next five years or so, with Young at Third, Kinsler at second, and Chris Davis (or potentially Justin Smoak, with the other DHing) at first.  With other players on the roster also with a fair amount of club control left, the current Rangers squad is one that fans should look foward to in the years ahead.

Now, if the pitching gels as planned, we’ll be in business…

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Morisato’s 2009 Baseball Hall Of Fame Ballot

January 12, 2009 at 12:51 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Hall Of Fame, MLB

 Well, it’s a little late this year, but as it is a tradition for me, here are my picks for what will happen today on the 2009 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot results.

In

• Jim Rice (Red Sox).  Career Numbers:  .298/.352/.502, 382 Home Runs, 2452 Hits.  Rice’s numbers are far below that of what you would expect from a Hall of Famer (Dale Murphy was more productive), but Rice gets a lot of consideration from the argument that he was a slugger in a pitcher’s era and that he was “feared.”  He also gets a lot of spin from the Boston media, a lot of which might be guilt for how poorly he was treated back when he played.  I think he’ll probably sneak in, ranking as one of the worst Hall of Fame selections ever.
• Rickey Henderson (Athletics, Yankees, Padres, Angels, Mets, Mariners, Red Sox, Dodgers).  Career Numbers:  3055 Hits, 297 Home Runs, 1406 Stolen Bases.  Possibly the greatest leadoff man ever, Henderson should have been a unanimous election, but wasn’t thanks to some fucking idiots that want to use their ballot as a way of garner attention for themselves. 

 On The Bubble

• Bert Blyleven (Twins, Rangers, Pirates, Indians, Angels).  Career Numbers:  287-250, 3.31 ERA, 3701 strikeouts.  Why Blyleven is NOT in the Hall of Fame is perlexing, as the man was an effective pitcher for most of his years, was among the league leaders in strikeouts and wins year in and year out, but has never gotten the support of the mainstream baseball writers who instead champion a lesser pitcher in Jack Morris.  What is there to debate?  Blyleven deserves induction.
• Harold Baines (White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Orioles, Indians).  Career Numbers:  .289/.356/.465.  384 Home Runs, 2866 Hits.  Baines falls just short in many of the popular induction offensive categories, but his numbers are decent enough that they do merit some consideration.  He might be a candidate for induction later, but not right now. 
• Tim Raines (Expos, White Sox, Yankees, Athletics, Orioles, Marlins).  Career Numbers:  .294/.385/.425, 170 Home Runs, 2605 hits.  Raines was one of the best leadoff men of his era, but was overshadowed by the flashier Henderson.  I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, however, but he was very good for a long time.
• Jack Morris (Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, Indians).  Career Numbers:  254-186, 3.90 ERA, 2478 strikeouts.  One of the most overrated pitchers of his ERA, Morris’ arguement from sportswriters almost always is about Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.  But Morris really wasn’t anything special in the post-season when you take that game away and to be honest, he wasn’t anythign special during the regular season either.  He’d probably be one of the worst Hall of Famers ever, but he’ll linger on the ballot until he either falls off completely at the end of his eligibility or until sportswriters like John Heyman, who continue to base Morris’ candidacy based on Game 7 of the 1991 World Series get him elected.

Remain On Ballot

• Mark McGwire (Athletics, Cardinals).  Career Numbers:  583 Home Runs, 1626 Hits.  McGwire does merit being elected for the Hall of Fame, but he won’t get in for another decade.  The steroid era is still far too fresh in the minds of some voters.  As time passes and some of the other guys get in, the stance on McGwire will soften. 
• Andre Dawson (Expos, Cubs, Red Sox, Marlins).  Career Numbers:  438 Home Runs, 2774 Hits.  Dawson probably has a better case to be in the Hall of Fame than Jim Rice, but he doesn’t have that great of a spin machine in his favor.  Dawson should remain on the ballot, though, making him an intruging case for election next year.
• Tommy John (Indians, White Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Athletics).  Career Numbers:  288-231, 3.34 ERA, 2245 Strikeouts.  John deserves to be in Hall of Fame, as his numbers compare favorably to current Hall of Famers, and are better than a pitcher that more people favor over him, Jack Morris.  However, John’s lack of 300 wins keeps him out, with many stressing the surgery that bears his name being a factor for why he didn’t reach that plateau.  Maybe so, but doesn’t the BWAAA consider the fact that had John NOT had the surgery, he wouldn’t have even had a career?
• Don Mattingly (Yankees).  .307/.358/.471, 2153 hits, 222 Home Runs.  Mattingley certainly had the potential to be a Hall of Famer, but his back injuries ultimately killed his career.  He doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, despite George Steinbrenner’s urging, but he’ll linger for most of the remainder of his 13 years of eligibility, a testiment of the man’s class and his popularity.
• Matt Williams (Giants, Indians, Diamondbacks).  Career Numbers:  .268/.317/.489, 378 Home Runs, 1878 Hits.   One of the best third basemen of the 90’s, Williams won’t be elected, but he’ll get consideration due to the relatively low standards for third basemen for Hall of Fame consideration.  He’ll probably linger for a while.
• David Cone (Royals, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox). Career Numbers: 3.46 ERA, 2668 Strikeouts. 194-126. Cone really shouldn’t merit any sort of Hall of Fame consideration, but he’s going to get a lot of run because of post-season performances and his role on several World Series teams. Plus, he’s got a huge following among baseball writers, which will have him lingering on the ballot for a few years before he either falls off completely or sneaks into the Hall of Fame.
• Alan Trammell (Tigers).  Career Numbers:  .285/.352/.415, 185 Home Runs, 2365 Hits.  Trammell for years deserved to be inducted in the Hall of Fame, but what kills him is that the shortstop position became a more offensive position just after his retired.  Thus, when his numbers are taken into context with some of the current shortstops, they look pedestrian.  When taken into context, they’re well above average.
• Lee Smith (Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Reds, Expos)71-92, 478 saves, 3.03 ERA.   Smith had the all time lead in saves for several years, but has since been passed by Trevor Hoffman and I believe Mariano Rivera.  Though I have argued for years that Smith deserved to be in, he’s likely never going to be.
• Dave Parker (Pirates, Reds, Athletics, Brewers, Angels).  Career Numbers:  .290/.339/.471, 339 Home Runs, 2712 Hits.  The Cobra has an interesting case for induction, but the fact that he abused cocaine has soured some voters.  However, he was among the league leaders in most offensive categories for most of his career.  Unfortunately, he lacks the necessary numbers to gain induction.

No Chance In Hell

• Ron Gant (Braves, Reds, Cardinals, Phillies, Angels, Rockies, Athletics, Padres).   Career Numbers:  .256/.336/.468.  321 Home Runs.  1651 Hits.  Gant had a solid career, but he wasn’t a superstar or a compiler.  Just a very good player that contributed to several great teams.
• Mark Grace (Cubs, Diamondbacks).  Career Numbers:  .303/.383/.442.  173 Home Runs.  2445 Hits.  Not your prototypical first baseman, Grace did hit and get on base, all the while contributing solid defense at first base.  If he was maybe 300 hits closer, he might have an arguement.  But unfortunately, he doesn’t.  
• Mo Vaughn (Red Sox, Angels, Mets). Career Numbers: .293/.383/.523. 328 Homers. 1620 Hits. Vaughn was another incredibly gifted hitter in his time, but his issues with weight wound up ending his career far too quickly.
• Jay Bell (Indians, Pirates, Royals, Diamondbacks, Mets). Career Numbers: .265/.343/.416. 195 Home Runs. 1963 Hits. Bell was a nice player to have when he was playing. He was a solid shortstop and second baseman, was a class guy, and played for several good teams, including the good Pirates teams of the 90’s, and the early Diamondback teams, including the one that won the World Series. Overall, he had some decent pop to him, made good contact, and had a bit of speed. But it’s not hall worthy.
• Greg Vaughn (Brewers, Padres, Reds, Devil Rays, Rockies). Career Numbers: .242/.337/.470. 355 Home Runs. 1475 Hits. One of the more prolific sluggers of the mid to late 90’s, Vaughn had a hell of a stretch where he ranked near the top of the home run leaders in baseball. He walked a decent amount, and kept his strikeouts manageable. However, that’s pretty much the extent that we can go in terms of his candidacy for the Hall.
• Dale Murphy (Braves, Phillies, Rockies).  Career Numbers:  .265/.346/.469.  398 Home Runs.  2111 Hits.  A very good player, but not great and shouldn’t be considered.  He’s probably going to fall off the list, though he was a lot better player than Vaughn. 
• Jesse Orosco (Mets, Dodgers, Indians, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, Padres, Twins).  Career Numbers:  87-80, 3.16 ERA.  A solid setup man, but those don’t get elected to the Hall of Fame.  Really, who screens these damn things?
• Dan Plesac (Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Phillies).  Career Numbers:  65-71, 3.64 ERA.  See Orosco, Jesse.

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2008 Prospect Reports - Windy City Squads

January 8, 2009 at 2:42 pm · Filed under 2008 Prospect Reports, AL Central, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, MLB, NL Central

Today, we’ve got both Chicago Teams.  And brother, there ain’t a lot to look foward in either one of them.

Chicago Cubs - Prospect Report

This is probably one of the weaker systems in the National League thanks to the Cubs’ wacked out strategy of making questionable picks. 

Chicago Cubs Top Prospects

• Josh Vitters (3B)
• Jeff Samardzija (RHP)
• Andrew Cashner (RHP)
• Wellington Castillo (C)
• Chris Carpenter (RHP)
• Tony Thomas (2B)
• Tyler Colvin (OF)
• Ryan Flaherty (SS)
• Hak-Ju Lee (SS)
• Dae Eun-Ree (RHP)
• Ryan Harvey (RF)
• Micah Hoffpauir (1B)
• Steve Clevenger (C)
• Mitch Atkins (RHP)
• Junior Lake (SS)
• Matt Cerda (2B/C)
• Matt Pawelek (LHP)
• Kyler Burke (RF)
• Chris Huseby (RHP)

Matt Craig (1B/3B)

Prospect Report

Josh Vitters (3B)

• DOB: 8/27/89
• Drafted: 1^st Round, 2007, California High School
• 2009 Club:  Peoria Chiefs (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/200
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• Year In Review: It was a rough start for the Number Three overall pick in the draft, as Vitters looked overmatched in the Midwestern League.  After missing time thanks to a hand injury, Vitters was sent to Boise, where he heated back up again and resembled the hitter the Cubs thought they were getting. 
  Glass Half Full: The best pure hitter in the system, Vitters has good bat speed and makes consistent contact.  He’s got solid power potential, an excellent work ethic and is thought to be a potential fast riser. 
• Glass Half Empty: Vitters is rough defensively at third base, though many feel he’ll eventually be adequate enough to stay. 
• Projection:  Very High.  Vitters has restored some of his value, and it’s possible that the Midwestern League, plus his injury, may have hurt him early on.  Now that he’s healthy, he should be able to handle it no problem. 
• Best Case Scenario: An All Star Third Baseman That Can Win A Batting Title
• Likeliest Scenario:  Kevin Youkilis
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Vitters will likely be heading to a full season league, which makes him the Chief’s starting third baseman in the Midwest League.

Jeff Samardzija (RHP)

• DOB: 1/23/85
• Drafted: 5th Round, 2006, Notre Dame
• 2009 Club:  Chicago Cubs (MLB)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/220
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Samardzija continued to be promoted through the minors in spite of the fact that he didn’t show enough progress to merit such a promotion.  He did spot duty in the Cubs bullpen when Kerry Wood went down and stayed up.
• Glass Half Full:  Samardzija has the tools to be a front line starter in the National League.  He’s got good size and he’s very athletic.  His fastball touches the high 90’s and he has a slider that is a plus pitch.  He also throws a changeup that is an average pitch.  His command is fairly good as well. 
• Glass Half Empty: Samardzija is wildly inconsistent and he doesn’t strike out many, which is surprising considering his raw stuff.  Samardzija’s past football career also stunted his development as a starter, as I think that he is out of options starting next year.  This means he’ll have to finish developing in the majors.  His fastball is a bit straight, which makes him a threat to be homer prone in the majors.
• Projection:  Average, which is unusual for pitchers his age.  Because of the time he missed due to football, Samardzija remains difficult to project.  He likely will be either a huge success or a huge bust. 
• Best Case Scenario:  A dominant, but inconsistent, starter
• Likeliest Scenario:  A very good setup man or, All Star Closer, depending on opportunity
• 2009 Course Of Action: Samardzija is likely out of options and will have to be carried as a part of the Cubs’ pen, which would allow the Cubs to limit his innings early before stretching him out.  With Kerry Wood gone and Carlos Marmol likely being moved to the closer’s role, Samardzija will be depended on heavily to fill Marmol’s former role of relief ace. 

Andrew Cashner (RHP)

• DOB: 9/11/86
• Drafted:  1^st Round, 2008, TCU
• 2009 Club:  Peoria Chiefs (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/185
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  One of the top rated college closers, Cashner was awful after the Cubs tried to convert him to a starter again. 
• Glass Half Full:  Cashner was a revelation after he was moved into the closer’s role at TCU, throwing in the upper 90’s.  He coupled this with a high velocity slider and has got an intimidating mound presence. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which are average pitches, making one wonder if he could transition back into a starting role.
• Glass Half Empty:  Cashner had control issues in his pro debut.  He has never had success as a starting pitcher, and may be better left off in the bullpen.
• Projection:  Average.  The Cubs, according to Kevin Goldstein, are going to leave Cashner as a starter for now.  It may be that Cashner might have been suffering from fatigue in his pro debut, which is why he was so shitty.  At the very least, there isn’t any wrong in stretching him out, which will allow him to build up innings. 
• Best Case Scenario:  A Dominant Starting Pitcher
• Likeliest Scenario:  A dominant reliever
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Hopefully, things go a lot better for Cashner when he debuts in a full season league.

Wellington Castillo (C)

• DOB: 4/24/87
• Signed:  2004, Dominican Republic
• 2009 Club:  Iowa Cubs (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/200    
• Bats/Throws:   R/R
• The Skinny:  Castillo rose through the minors quickly, ending the year with Iowa.  Overall, across High, Double and Triple A, Castillo hit .287/.337/.333 while showing excellent defensive value.
• Glass Half Full:  A stocky catcher, Castillo has good contact skills with some power.  He’s an extremely good catcher, though, able to call a good game, block balls, and has a strong arm. 
• Glass Half Empty:  Castillo doesn’t have a whole lot of power and doesn’t walk much.  He’s also slow and more vulnerable against left handers.
• Projection:  Low.  Castillo isn’t a star, but he is very good and should be looked at as a potential long term fit at catcher for somebody.  Though he might have been rushed a bit, he is quite talented. 
• Best Case Scenario:  Average Regular
• Likeliest Scenario: 
• 2009 Course Of Action: Castillo doesn’t need to be rushed, so he’ll probably remain at Iowa for the duration of the year.

 Chris Carpenter (RHP)

• DOB: 12/26/85
• Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2008, Kent State
• 2009 Club:  Peoria Chiefs (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/215
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  An 18th Round pick last year for the Yankees, Carpenter scared off a lot of teams because of his injury history.  However, this year he has managed to stay healthy and more importantly, been productive.
• Glass Half Full:   In terms of raw pitching strength, Carpenter has a great arm with a fastball that clocks up to 96.  He compliments it with a above average slider and is developing a good enough breaking ball to remain as a starter. Overall, he was worthy of a first round pick, it’s just the injury history that freaked teams out.
• Glass Half Empty:  And now for that injury history.  Carpenter has had two elbow operations in the past, and his command and control are inconsistent. 
• Projection:  Average.  Carpenter is a bit of a project, but overall he looks like he could be something nice for the Cubs if they are able to develop him properly.  At the very least, he’ll be an excellent setup man.
• Best Case Scenario:  Number Two Starter or All Star Closer
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Carpenter will likely begin with a lower challenge environment, which means it’s likely to the Midwestern League for him, where he’ll build innings.  All in all, he could be a steal in a year.

Tony Thomas (2B)

• DOB: 7/10/86
• Drafted: 3^rd Round, 2007, Florida State  
• 2009 Club:  Tennessee Smokies (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 5-10/180  
• Bats /Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  After an impressive first season, Thomas took a bit of a step back this past year, hitting .266/.320/.400, showing very little power or anything else for that matter.
• Glass Half Full:  Thomas can hit decently well, getting on base thanks to a quick swing.  He also has decent plate discipline, as he’ll wait for his pitch.
• Glass Half Empty:  Thomas isn’t a great defender, doesn’t have great speed, or great power.  He’ll also swing and miss a lot as well.
• Projection:  Average.  Thomas should improve a bit now that he’s had an adjustment to pro ball, but he really does need to improve his plate discipline or risk being categorized as a utilityman.
• Best Case Scenario:  An average utilityman for now.
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Thomas is likely headed to Double A, where I think he’ll improve enough with the stick to become an offensive second baseman. 

 Tyler Colvin (CF)

• DOB: 9/5/85
• Drafted: 1^st Round, 2006, Clemson  
• 2009 Club:  Iowa Cubs (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/190  
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  After a decent 2007, Colvin fell off the face of the map, hitting .256/.312/.424 with 14 homers in 137 games, and striking out 101 times.  He then underwent Tommy John Surgery which will have him at DH to begin next season. 
• Glass Half Full: All of Colvin’s tools are at least average.  He’s got decent power in his swing and a strong arm in centerfield.  He also has above average speed as well.
• Glass Half Full:  Colvin’s power is as limited as his range in centerfield, which is bad because Colvin doesn’t have the power to hit for a corner outfield position.  He also swings and misses way too often, and he has trouble against left handers as well.
• Projection:  Low.  Colvin was a stunning draft pick when he was taken two years ago in that no one thought that highly of him to take him in the top half of the first round.  And while there is some theories that the Cubs overpaid for him because they were intending to take Jeff Samarzdija later and overpaying for him, this still isn’t a great draft pick.  Colvin ultimately will have to move to a corner, and his power isn’t enough that people will feel the need to leave him there. 
• Best Case Scenario:  A Speedy Centerfielder that hits near the top of the order
• Likeliest Scenario: A very good fourth outfielder
• 2009 Course Of Action: Colvin is likely headed to Iowa, and could get a call up at some point next season when injury or ineffectiveness claims a starter on the main squad.

Ryan Flaherty (SS)

• DOB:  7/26/86
• Drafted:  1st Round (S), 2008, Vanderbilt
• 2009 Club:  Daytona Cubs
• Height/Weight:            6-3/210
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny:  The Commodores’ shortstop had a solid season, giving himself enough exposure to be picked in tne supplemental round.  After signing, he didn’t slow down, hitting .297/.369/.511 for Boise with 8 Home Runs.
• Glass Half Full:  Flaherty has a nice left-handed swing that he uses to hit for solid contact.  He should be able to hit for average.  He’s got decent pop to him and very good hands and a strong arm at short.
• Glass Half Empty:  What Flaherty lacks is that he doesn’t have great range, nor great speed, to remain at short.  And his power is more of the doubles variety, not of the home run type.
• Projection:  Low.  Flaherty is the type of college player that should rise fairly quickly, but he isn’t a star level talent.  Still, he could be a competent second or third baseman if moved there, and could at least be an average regular.
• Best Case Scenario:  An Capable Shortstop
• Likeliest Scenario:  An Offensive Second Baseman
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Flaherty is likely headed to Daytona, but he’ll probably remain at shortstop for now.

Hak-Ju Lee (SS)

• DOB: 4/11/90
• Signed:  2008, Korea
• 2009 Club:  Short Season
• Height/Weight: 6-2/175
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny: One of the bigger fish in the International Signing Period, Lee was paid over a million bucks for his services, which are regarded to be mid-first round ability. 
• Glass Half Full:  A very athletic player, Lee is a excellent shortstop with good range and a strong arm.  He’s got great speed and has a body that projects to be at least average power, maybe more thanks to his short, quick swing. 
• Glass Half Empty: Lee is a very raw product in all facets of his game.  There isn’t a lot known about him because no one has seen him play yet.
• Projection:  Very High.  Lee has solid tools, enough to maybe become one of the better shortstops in the National League.  However, that ceiling and what he is now have a gap between them roughly the size of Montana between them. 
• What He Can Be:  Too Soon To Tell
• 2009 Club:  Lee will probably be worked with in extended spring training before he gets a short season assignment, likely in Boise. 

Dae-Eun Rhee (RHP)

DOB: 3/23/89

Signed:  2008, South Korea
2009 Club: Rehab
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: L/R

The Skinny:  A talented lefty, Rhee wound up needing Tommy John shortly after arriving into the states. 

Glass Half Full:  Rhee has good mechanics, clocks his fastball around 90’s, and has good off-speed stuff.  His changeup is already a plus pitch and it has late breaking action. 

Glass Half Empty:  Both his slider and cutter, however, aren’t as effective, however, and he’ll likely need to refine one or the other to remain a starter. 

Projection: High.  The tools are there for him to be a potential back of the rotation starter. 

What He Can Be:  Back Of The Rotation Starter

2009 Course Of Action:  After rehab, Rhee will probably make his debut in 2008 around August for Daytona. 

 

Ryan Harvey (RF)

Drafted:  1^st Round, 2006, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Daytona Cubs

A huge right fielder with a massive power ceiling, Harvey doesn’t have much in other skills.  His swing is long and he has poor plate discipline, which means he’s going to strike out a lot.  He’s not fast and is only average as an outfielder.  Overall, there is still a lot to like about Harvey, but he hasn’t shown much improvement since he was drafted. 

 

Micah Hoffpauir (1B)
Drafted: 13^th round, 2002, Lamar
2009 Club:  Iowa Cubs (Triple A)

A bit of organizational fodder, Hoffpauir hit .362/.393/.752 in Triple A, with 25 homers to his name, while hitting .342/.400/.534 with 2 home runs in 33 games.  Hoffpauir has solid power and makes contact, but he’s not an asset as a defender.  All in all, he might be a usable bench bat in the future, perhaps even a DH or a cheap option as a starting first baseman.  All in all, Hoffpauir won’t be making the Cubs anytime soon thanks to Derrek Lee and his lack of positional flexibility. 

Steve Clevenger (C)

Drafted:  7^th Round, 2006, Chipola Junior College

2009 Club:  Tennessee Smokies (Double A)

A solid defensive catcher, Clevenger offers some upside at the plate.  He shows a good feel for contact, but the best part about his performance has been his walks.  Clevenger has great plate discipline and this allows him to get on base nearly 40% of the time.  He does lack power, however, and the minors are littered with the remains of catchers like Clevenger.  But, if he pans out, he could be something similar to Greg Zaun if given the shot.

 

Mitch Atkins (RHP)

Drafted:  7^th Round, 2004, North Carolina High School

2009 Club:  Iowa Cubs (Triple A)

The Cubs’ minor league pitcher of the year after he was a combined 17-7 with a 4.00 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 28 starts with the Tennessee Smokies and Iowa Cubs, Atkins earned a spot on the 40.  Atkins isn’t a fantastic talent, and is probably more of a 4^th or 5^th starter in the major leagues.  What he dos have is good command over average stuff.  He clocks in the low 90’s with his fastball and has a cutter that is a solid pitch.  He also throws a changeup and a curveball that are usable.  Overall, he’ll be starting in Triple A, and could see time this season whenever a pitcher goes down.

 

Junior Lake (SS)

Signed: 2007, Dominican Republic

2009 Club:  Short Season

Lake is a toolsy Dominican prospect that has lots of potential.  Lake has a frame that projects a lot of power, but he also got a lot of speed as well.  However, like a lot of young Dominican prospects, he’s a long ways away and is still very raw in all aspects of his game. There are several people that feel he’ll likely have to move to third base eventually as he fills out. Overall his impressive Arizona League showing has some prospect hounds excited about his ceiling, which could be considerable. 

 

Matt Cerda (2B/C)

Drafted:  4^th Round, 2008, California High School

2009 Club:  Short Season

A former alum of the Little League World Series (he famously faced Danny Almonte in that legendary game all those years ago), Cerda was drafted this season and signed quickly.  Cerda is a scrappy player that gets good reviews about his makeup and work ethic.  He has a short, quick swing that results in balls being hit to all fields and has great plate discipline.  He is not, however, going to hit for any significant power.  The Cubs signed Cerda with the intention of eventually moving him to catcher, so look for him to start there at some point in 2009.

 

Mark Pawelek (LHP)

Drafted:  1^st Round, 2005, Utah High School

2009 Club:  Low A

The Skinny:  A tall lefty that throws in the low 90’s, you would think that Pawelek would be farther along than just the short season leagues, but he remains there, and isn’t doing too well.  Part of it is his own fault, as he has shown up overweight at times to being the season and then cutting his season short in 2007 after falling and breaking his elbow after tripping on his PS2.  So, despite the fact that he’s got the fastball and changeup that would be needed to succeed, he just hasn’t. 

 

Kyler Burke (RF)

Drafted:  1^st Round, 2006, Tennessee High School (Padres)

2009 Club:  Low A

The Cubs’ bounty for Michael Barrett, Burke is a slugging corner outfield with a solid arm and huge power potential.  However, he has trouble against breaking balls and swings and misses way too often.  That results in his impressive power becoming negated.  However, he is a terrific athlete that has the ability to develop into a superstar, if only everything comes together. 

 

Chris Huseby (RHP)

Drafted: 11^th Round, 2006, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Boise Hawks (SS)

An 11^th rounder that was given big money to allow him to rehab and hopefully get the Cubs to cash in on getting a solid prospect, Huseby has been nothing more than an out and out disaster this year, pitching in a small portion to innings this year.  Huseby has solid stuff in that his fastball and curve were highly rated and he was working on a third pitch to allow him to start.  So, while he has only really been pitching for two years now, as his first season was spent rehabbing, he should be showing something by now.

 

Matt Craig (1B/3B)

Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2002, Richmond

2009 Club:  Iowa Cubs (Triple A)

Craig had a nice year, hitting .311/.438/.514, Craig might be an organization guy.  He’s got fantastic plate discipline and is able to get on base, but he’s not an asset on defense, nor does he have fantastic power. 

 

 

Final Analysis

Make no mistake about it, this is a bad system, and one that has either a lot of raw potential or a whole lot of nothing.  And while the Cubs have received some contributions at the major league level from home products Soto, Theriot, Cedeno and Marmol, there isn’t enough star level talent on this squad that is going to come up and help the Cubs in the event they get old fast.  However, as long as Lou Pinella and this current core of Cubs are fighting for titles, don’t’ expect it to change anytime soon.

 

Chicago White Sox - Prospect Report

Another year, yet another average season for the White Sox farm system.

Well, not quite.

The system is still relatively shallow in terms of prospect depth.  However, there is a uptick in terms of talent that could contribute in the major leagues, and potentially be more than roster filler.  While some prospects took a step back, namely Poreda, who did not perform to expectations, other members of the farm have stepped up to serve notice that they too can contribute as well.

Meanwhile, the 2008 Draft provided a pair of higher impact talents on the farm.  Gordon Beckham fell into their hands at the top of the first round and the White Sox took a former selection from three years ago in Jordan Danks, who may be a steal if coaches are able to unlock the potential that was seen in him many years ago as a Texas prep star. 

There also was a bit of nepotism in terms of some of the selections made.  Danks, the brother of White Sox ace John, may have been signed to help contract negotiations with his brother, in terms of allowing for a greater chance for Danks the elder to sign an extension.  And who could forget that the Whtie Sox drafted and signed Kenny Williams’ own son in the 6^th round.  

White Sox Prospect Rankings

1. Gordon Beckham (SS)
2. John Shelby (CF)
3. Aaron Poreda (LHP)
4. Tyler Flowers (C)
5. Jordan Danks (CF)
6. Jose Martinez (CF)
7. Nevin Griffith (RHP)
8. Chris Getz (2B)
9. Dayan Viciedo (3B)
10. Lance Broadway (RHP)
11. John Ely (RHP)
12. Jack Egbert (RHP)
13. John Lujan (RHP)
14. Jon Gilmore (3B)
15. Justin Cassell (RHP)
16. Juan Silverio (SS)
17. Jeff Marquez (RHP)
18. Kyle McCulloch (RHP)
19. Adam Russell (RHP)
20. Brent Morel (3B)

Prospect Reports

Gordon Beckham (SS)

DOB:  9/16/86

Drafted:  1^st Round, 2008, Georgia

2009 Club:  Winston-Salem Warthogs (High A)

Height/Weight:  6-0/175

Bats/Throws:  R/R

The Skinny:  Beckham was mentioned to be one of the top college talents in a draft year where little separated much of the class in terms of quality.  With their won middle infield situation a mess, the White Sox really hoped that Beckham would be available with the 8^th pick.  Thanks to the Reds choosing Yonder Alonso, and the Rays passing on Buster Posey, the White Sox got their man.

Glass Half Full:  Beckham is a capable hitter who has some doubles power and gets on base.  He should hit for an acceptable average and maybe give you about 10-12 homers a year or so.  As a defender, he has soft hands and his fielding instincts are excellent.  He also has fantastic hair.

Glass Half Empty:  Beckham doesn’t have great range at short, but this is largely negated by his fielding instincts.  He also is a bit of a free swinger, which makes him less of an ideal leadoff man.

Projection:  Low.  Beckham has the ability to rise quickly through a farm system, which is why he was so attractive to the White Sox, who aren’t exactly thrilled with Orlando Cabrera’s antics.  Still, Beckham is a solid, low risk player that should be a capable contributor.

What He Can Be:  A shortstop that hits second in the order.

2009 Course Of Action:  Beckham will begin the year in Winston-Salem, with the Sox hoping he makes it to Double A come July or so, which would allow them to minimize investing in a stopgap.

 

John Shelby (CF)

DOB:  8/6/85

Drafted: 5^th Round, 2006, Kentucky

2009 Club:  Birmingham Barons (Double A)

Height/Weight: 5-10/185

Bats/Throws: R/R

The Skinny:  After a breakout campaign last season, Shelby continued to hit, posting up a final line of .295/.331/.841 with 15 Home Runs, 80 RBI and 33 stolen bases, all the while showing solid defense.

Glass Half Full:  Shelby has some of the best tools in the system.  His bat speed and strong wrists provide him with above average power, while allowing him to hit for solid contact.  He’s got good speed and excellent base stealing skills.  He’s a hard worker and an above average centerfielder.

Glass Half Empty:  Shelby lacks plate discipline, which leads to high strikeout totals and his arm isn’t fantastic.

Projection:  Average.  Shelby has a lot of upside, and while he isn’t progressing as quickly as one would expect a college product to do so, he’s still a nifty player with a lot of value long term for the Sox.

What He Can Be:  A 20/20 centerfielder.

2009 Course Of Action:  Provided that Shelby isn’t traded (as Kenny Williams has done with most of the top prospects in his system the past two years), he should be promoted to Birmingham.  I would hope that he at least is able to make it to Charlotte by the end of the year.

 

Aaron Poreda (LHP)

DOB:  10/01/86

Drafted: 1^st Round, 2007, University of San Francisco

2009 Club:  Birmingham Barons (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-6/240

Bats/Throws: L/L

The Skinny:  Arguably the White Sox’s top pitching prospect, Poreda was hit or miss in his first full professional year, and was mentioned in a slew of trade rumors going to Oakland. 

Glass Half Full:  Poreda’s really has one true plus pitch in his fastball, but it’s a great one.  Clocking in the mid to high 90’s and with great sinking motion and movement in the strike zone, Poreda commands it sell and throws it for strikes. 

Glass Half Empty:  Poreda throws a slider and changeup, pitches that would make him an effective regular, but both are still quite raw and are far behind Poreda’s fastball in terms of effectiveness, though the slider is beginning to come around.  Poreda has had a hard time with lefties in the past, but this year has instead been killed by righthanders. 

Projection:  Average.  Poreda’s future depends on him being able to learn a suitable breaking pitch that compliments his heater.  He’s still got a lot of promise, but he was such a raw product coming out of college to begin with that it should have been expected that it would take him time to adjust.

What He Can Be: A solid starter or a power closer, depending on his ability to refine his pitches.

2009 Course Of Action:  Poreda is likely going to be in Birmingham once again, and could be in line to help out at some point in Chicago out of the bullpen. 

 

Tyler Flowers (C)

DOB: 1/24/86

Drafted: 33^rd Round, 2005, Chipola Junior College (D&F - Braves)

2009 Club: Birmingham Barons (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-4/245

Bats/Throws: R/R

The Skinny: Acquired from the Braves for Javier Vasquez, Flowers finished in the Carolina League’s top five in both on-base percentage and slugging.

Glass Half Full:  Flowers has a bat that you’ll love.  He’s got an advanced approach at the plate, making excellent contact to the ball while hitting to all sides.  He has plus power for the position and is able to adjust to most pitching.   He’s also patient at the plate and will draw his fair share of walks.

Glass Half Empty:  As good as he is at the plate, Flowers is a massive backstop and not an athletic one at that.  He lacks the arm for the position and he’s rough defensively.  Overall, many feel that he’s unlikely to stick at catcher, which lowers his value drastically.

Projection:  Fair.  Flowers might be able to become a passable defender at catcher with some work, though the concerns will still be there.  Overall, I think he’ll wind up being a great power source at some position in the lineup, though catcher would make him an all star.

What He Can Be:  Hmmm, Mike Piazza during the latter years with the Mets would be a fair comparison.

2009 Course Of Action:  Flowers will be kept at catcher and will likely be the main backstop at Birmingham.  The White Sox are banking on Flowers remaining at catcher in hopes of him being A.J. Pierzynski’s successor.

 

Jordan Danks (CF)

DOB:  8/7/86

Drafted:  7^th Round, 2008, Texas

2009 Club:  Winston-Salem Warthogs (High A)

Height/Weight:  6-5/205

Bats/Throws:  L/R

The Skinny:  Three years ago, Danks the Younger was rated as a first round talent, but a strong commitment to the University of Texas dropped him.  The White Sox took a shot at him in the 19^th round, but nothing happened. Danks went on to a career that was less than expected by many and the result was that his stock tanked again, having him in the 7^th round due to bonus demands.  Danks’ former agent, Scott Boras, was later fired after he reportedly turned down a deal that would have gotten Danks picked on the first day.  Danks eventually signed with Chicago for $525,000 at the deadline, before putting up a solid year in limited action.

Glass Half Full:  Danks has one plus tool:  he’s quick.  He’s got solid plate discipline as well, and a nice swing.  He’s got solid range out in centerfield as well.

Glass Half Empty:  For all of his size, Danks doesn’t hit with much power.  He also has a weak arm in centerfield, which limits his ability to make plays.  His swing also has a lot of holes, and was pounded by more talented pitchers in college, who were able to exploit that.

Projection:  Average.  Maybe pro coaches can figure out how to get the most out of Danks that Texas’ staff was unable to do.  Because right now, he’s far from the future superstar that was seen in high school and looking more likely a very awesome fourth outfielder, though I’m a bit more bullish on him than most.

What He Can Be:  Kenny Lofton if he doesn’t improve.

2009 Course Of Action:  Danks will likely head to Kannapolis, where he’ll be the starting centerfielder for them.  Even with his flaws, Danks is still one of the best (and only) positional player prospects that the organization has.

 

Jose Martinez (CF)

DOB: 7/25/88

Signed:  2006, Venezuela

2009 Club:  Winston-Salem Warthogs (High A)

Height/Weight: 6-5/170

Bats/Throws: R/R

The Skinny:  Martinez made his full season debut this year in the Sally League, showing some decent skills on the circuit, hitting .306/.359/.382 for a kid that just turned 20 in July. 

Glass Half Full:  Martinez has several tools to project on.  Many feel that he’s got solid power in his frame and he’s got decent speed on him as well.  He’s also a capable outfielder as well.

Glass Half Empty:  Martinez, like a lot of Latin kinds, is still very raw in terms of his baseball skills.  His power is still very much projection right now and his outfield defense can get sloppy at times.  He needs to also refine his strike zone judgment as well as his base stealing instincts.

Projection:  High.  Martinez is raw, but he could very well become something special.  Right now, all that can be done is to let him progress through the minors until he shows more of his tools against better competition.

What He Can Be:  A Capable Starting Outfielder.

2009 Course Of Action:  Martinez is likely headed to Winston-Salem, where he’ll be sharing the outfield with Jordan Danks, another outfielder.  Of the two, Martinez is the one that at least has star potential, though he’s still incredibly raw.  One problem that will develop in his future is that the White Sox really aren’t equipped to develop these kinds of talents, meaning that Martinez will be working against a bit of a trend in terms of high tooled busts (Ryan Sweeney being the latest.)

 

Nevin Griffith (RHP)

DOB:  9/09/88

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2007, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Kannapolis Intimidators (Low A)

Height/Weight:  6-2/165

Bats/Throws:  R/R

The Skinny:  A bit of a steal when he fell in the draft last year because of potential makeup issues (went to the same high school that produced Elijah Dukes), Griffith was pitching well until a line drive hit him in the elbow, knocking him out for the season.

Glass Half Full:  Griffith is an athletic pitcher with an easy delivery and loads of projection.  He throws in the low 9’s, topping out at 94, with the potential for more down the line.  He also throws a plus slider and an average curveball.

Glass Half Empty:  Griffith does throw across his body and doesn’t use his lower half much while pitching, which means that that will have to be refined a bit for long term success.  He also needs to refine that curveball for it to be as suitable out pitch.

Projection:  High.  Griffith has some of the most upside of any pitcher in the system, and that does include Poreda to a certain extent.  However, he’s got to stay on the mound, as he’s pitched less than 75 innings in the last two years. 

What He Can Be:  A middle of the rotation starter

2009 Course Of Action:  Griffith is likely headed to LOW A CLUB, where he should remain to build innings in a decent pitching environment. 

    

Chris Getz (2B)

DOB:  8/30/83

Drafted:  4^th Round, 2005, Michigan

2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)

Height/Weight: 6-0/185

Bats/Throws: L/R

The Skinny:  Getz looked more and more like a candidate to be the Pale Hose’s second baseman for next year, Getz hit. 302 with 11 home runs, 11 stolen bags, and all the while showing above average plate discipline and a decent on base percentage.  His callup to the majors also wasn’t bad either. 

Glass Half Full:  Getz has a short, quick swing that allows him to spray hits all over the field and he’s got average speed.  He’s got excellent plate discipline and is a solid fundamental second baseman.  All in all, Getz shows great leadoff potential. 

Glass Half Empty:  However, Getz doesn’t have one tool that stands out above all others.  He can only play second base due to limited range and lacks any sort of significant power. 

Projection:  Low.  Getz is pretty much ready for the show, be it as a solid infield backup or as a everyday contributor at second.  Personally, I wouldn’t mind Getz going in next season as the White Sox’s interal option for use at second base.  At the very least, he’ll keep the seat warm until Beckham can force Ramirez to slide back over to second base.  At best, he could allow the White Sox to trade Ramirez for other needs, allowing for an infield of Beckham and Getz.

What He Can Be:  Dustin Pedroia maybe?

2009 Course Of Action:  Getz could make the squad as a backup, but it’s more likely that the Sox will keep Getz in Triple A so he’ll play everyday, until need forces them to call him up.

 

Dayán Viciedo (3B)

DOB:  3/10/1989

Signed:  2008, Cuba

2009 Club:

Height/Weight:

Bats/Throws:

The Skinny:  A top baseball prodigy in Cuba, Viciedo likely would have been on Cuba’s World Baseball Classic squad this year.  However, Viciedo defected this past year and after a brief court battle over whether or not he was eligible for the draft, Viciedo signed a 5 year, $11 million deal with the White Sox. 

Glass Half Full:  Viciedo has massive power potential, and regularly hit for power in the Cuban National League.  He’s got a good swing, and shows a mature approach to the game.

Glass Half Empty:  Viciedo was out of shape when he arrived, and he isn’t very nimble around the bag.  Overall, he’s likely going to move to first base at some point.  There is also the questions as to whether or not he’s really 19 or not.

Projection:  High.  Viciedo could become a massive power hitter in time if he’s allowed to develop properly.  Though he’s ultimately destined for first base, he’s a much better prospect than Kendry Morales was when he arrived.  I think he’ll be an excellent power source in the future.

What He Can Be:  A slugging first baseman

2009 Course Of Action:  Because Viciedo competed against a bit higher level of competition, he’s likely headed for High A, where he’ll remain at third base for now.

 

Lance Broadway (RHP)

• DOB:  8/20/83
• Drafted:  1^st Round, 2005, Texas Christian University
• 2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• Height/Weight:  6-4/190
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  The former TCU ace put up average numbers in Triple A, going 11-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 23 starts. 
• Glass Half Full:  Broadway has excellent command and control, enabling him to throw for strikes.  He has excellent secondary pitches in a plus curveball and a very good changeup, plus he’s been pretty durable.
• Glass Half Empty:  Broadway has little velocity, the highest being clocked at around 91, but he’s more often clocked in the high 80’s and as such he really doesn’t project to be very much than an end of the rotation guy.
• Projection:   Low.  One of the issues with Broadway is that he had very little projection left on him.  As a result, he’s unlikely to be any more than a back end of the rotation starter.
• What He Can Be:  Back Of The Rotation Starter
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Broadway will probably gain some consideration for a rotation spot if the White Sox move a starter.  Otherwise, it’s back to Triple A for him.

John Ely (RHP)

• Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2007, Miami Of Ohio
• 2009 Club:  Birmingham Barons (Double A)
• The product from Miami had a rough year in High A, going 10-12 with a 4.71 ERA.  However, a lot of that was due to him tiring later in the year, as he sucked the second half.  Ely throws in the low 90’s with his fastball, which has decent movement.  His changeup is a plus pitch with some sink and his curve is average at the least.  However, he’s got some durability issues, as well as a delivery that is regarded to be a max effort type.  If he can repeat it, however, than he should be alright, as he runs more of a risk of changing it than just keeping his existing one.  Still, Ely still has enough potential to at least be a back of the rotation starter at worst.  I think he’ll bounce back, though he’ll have to again work out the problems with the delivery to remain effective, and stay durable.

Jack Egbert (RHP)

• Drafted: 13^th Round, 2004, Rutgers
• 2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• After a breakout season last year, Egbert was awful in Triple A, going 4-12 with a 4.65 ERA and a while showing a decline in his command and control. Egbert normally has good command and uses his sinking fastball to get groundballs.  He couples this with a low 90’s four seem fastball, plus a changeup.  However, Egbert gave up five times as many home runs this year than he did last year (3).  His curveball isn’t great and neither is his velocity, which caught up to him as he began to become a lot more hittable.  Overall, Egbert really isn’t much more than what the futures of McCulloch and Broadway are, which are potential fifth starters/good middle relievers.  Unless Egbert can suddenly figure out how he can become the next Jamie Moyer, he’s going to be in trouble in the future.

John Lujan (RHP)

• Drafted:   2004, 14^th Round, New Mexico Junior College (Rangers)
• 2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• The prize for Chris Stewart, Lujan continued to show that he can be a capable relief prospect as Birmingham’s closer.  Lujan has one of the liveliest arms in the White Sox arm, Lujan possesses an explosive fastball that hits the mid 90’s and touches 97.  When everything is clicking, he’s very dominant.  However, Lujan is essentially a one pitch pitcher, as his slider, while promising, still isn’t there yet.  His command also comes and goes.  Overall, Lujan isn’t quite a closer, but with some refinement, he could become a lights out setup man, which are always valuable, especially when cheap.  He will get a spring training invite, but is likely going to Charlotte, where he’ll be on the short list of emergency set up men.

Jon Gilmore (3B)

• Drafted:  1^st Round (S), 2006, Iowa High School
• 2009 Club:  High A
• Gilmore is an average tools player that has solid power potential, but hasn’t shown it yet.  He is showing some improvement in terms of working on his ability to recognize pitches.  However, the bigger issue is that he’s going to half to hit for some massive power, as he isn’t fast and lacks the range to play third base.  So, like many of the other White Sox third base prospects, he might wind up a slugging first baseman, provided that he taps into his power.

Justin Cassel (RHP)

• Drafted:  7^th Round, 2006, UC Irvine
• 2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• Matt Cassel younger brother, Justin was fairly impressive in 2008.  He went 10-4 with 3.11 ERA in Double A, all the while showing that he could be at least an innings eater that kept his team in games.  Cassel’s fastball isn’t impressive, as it clocks in the high 80’s, but it’s got excellent sink to it.  His curveball and changeup are above average pitches.  He also works very quickly and does a good job of keeping the ball in the park.  However, Cassel has had problems with durability in the past.  And did we mention the fastball?  Overall, Cassel doesn’t have the best stuff in the system, but is likely headed along the route of a back of the rotation starter.  I like him, more than his brother Jack.  Cassel is headed to Triple A, where a string of good starts will put him higher up in the emergency call up hierarchy.

Juan Silverio (SS)

• Signed:  2007, Dominican Republic
• 2009 Club:   Short Season
• A five tool player signed out of Latin America for $600,000, Silvero has most of the 5 tools.  He’s got a quick bat and good power potential.  He also runs fairly well as well.  He’s got more than enough arm for shortstop.  Many compare him to Miguel Tejada.  However, there is a concern that he could outgrow shortstop as he fills out.  Also, he’s very inconsistent right now, as he’s a raw product.  He lacks much plate discipline.  Still, he’s a solid talent that I will give him a pass for the moment as he develops.

Jeff Marquez (RHP)

• Drafted:  1^st Round, 2005, Sacramento City College (Yankees)
• 2009 Club: Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• Marquez was one of the names that was famously tabbed as “untouchable” by the Yankees, when he was asked for, along with Brett Gardner, Ian Kennedy, and a player to be named later, for Johan Santana.  Marquez flamed out this year, as he was bumped to Scranton, got torched, and moved back down to Trenton, where he did well for three starts before being included in the trade for Nick Swisher.  Marquez has a good sinking fastball that tops out around 92-93 mph, and he does a decent job of inducting ground balls with it.  He compliments it with a plus changeup and he throws a very good curveball as well.  However, his margin for error is slim because of his lack of strikeout and his ever elusive control.  Overall, I think Marquez can at least be a back of the rotation starter in the National League, though the White Sox may try to teach him a cut fastball, which has worked for John Danks. 

Kyle McCulloch (RHP)

• Drafted:  1^st Round, 2006, Texas
• 2009 Club:  Charlotte Knights (Triple A)
• The White Sox drafted McCulloch, feeling that he could be a low risk pitcher that could rise quickly.  However, McCulloch hasn’t lit things up in his time with the White Sox, as he’s been merely average at best.  His best pitch is his changeup, which is a plus pitch, but his fastball is anything but.  He can pitch deep into games, but doesn’t dominate.  Overall, he should be nothing more than a fifth starter at best, or a competent long man at worst. 

Adam Russell (RHP)

• Drafted:   6^th Round, 2004, Ohio
• 2009 Club:   Charlotte Knights
• Russell spent some time with the White Sox this year, but for the most part had a good year down in the minors.  In spite of his ridiculous tools and height (6-8), he’s exclusively a reliever, as his mechanics are inconsistent and he isn’t very durable, nor can he log in innings.  It’s too bad, as his fastball clocks in the 93-95 mph range and he’s got a sharp curveball that is a plus pitch.  He’s very tall, which gives his stuff some extra sink and movement, and he’s quite intimidating on the mound.  However, he works too slowly for my taste. 

 Brent Morel (3B)

• Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2008, Cal Poly
• 2009 Club:  Winston-Salem Warthogs (High A)
• A highly regarded defensive third baseman at Cal Poly, Morel has always been able to hit for a solid average while also getting on base in college.  Morel lacks power, which is kind of a must for a corner position.  However, his defense should be more than adequate to at least give him a shot at being a regular, so long as he continues to hit well. 

 Final Thoughts

Williams has scoffed at the need for a strong farm system, stating that the only standings that matter are the ones that the big league club plays in.  However, that is underselling the point of having a productive farm system.  Had Williams not had some talent on the farm, he never would have been able to make the trades for Swisher and Thome, nor been able to add other fringe pieces to the squad.  All in all, the White Sox are still in rough shape in terms of both quantity and quality, but there are a few star quality nuts on this farm that a blind squirrel should be able to unearth.

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2008 Prospect Reports - The Toronto Blue Jays And The Washington Nationals

December 30, 2008 at 3:14 pm · Filed under 2008 MLB Draft, AL East, MLB, NL East, Washington Nationals

Toronto Blue Jays - Prospect Report

The Tornonto Blue Jays get a lot of shit for their drafts.  With Russ Adams and the decision to take Ricky Romero over Troy Tulowitzski haunting them, it’s hard to look past the fact that they’ve actually had some pretty good drafts.

From their own shrewd drafting crew, the Blue Jays have produced Aaron Hill, Dave Bush, Adam Lind, Scott Downs, Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and others in the past few years.  So it’s hard to shit on them for that.  The only thing you really can fault the Jays is that none of their guys have really become superstars.  They’re all simply solid contributors, really. 

The Jays have begun mixing in some younger, prep talent into the mix, which they’re hoping will change that.  Much of that, however, is still far away.  Still, there are enough prospects that are on the horizon that should make things interesting in terms of potential big league talent that will contribute in 2009.

 Blue Jays Prospect Rankings

1. Travis Snider (RF)
2. Brett Cecil (LHP)
3. J.P. Arencibia (C)
4. Scott Campbell (2B)
5. David Cooper (1B)
6. Justin Jackson (SS)
7. Kevin Ahrens (3B)
8. David Purcey (LHP)
9. Brad Mills (LHP)
10. Ricky Romero (LHP)
11. Brandon McGee (RHP)
12. Balbino Fuenmayor (3B)
13. Andrew Liebel (RHP)
14. Robert Sobolewski (3B)
15. John Tolisano (2B)
16. Kenny Wilson (CF)
17. Tyler Pastornicky (SS)
18. Brian Jeroloman (C)
19. Eric Thames (LF)
20. Ryan Patterson (OF)

 Prospect Reports

Travis Snider (RF)

• DOB: 2/2/88
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Washington High School
• 2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 5-11/245
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny: Snider went from High A to the Majors this season, hitting .275/.358/.480 with 23 Home Runs.  He then received a big league promotion and kept on hitting, with a .301/.338/.466 line in 73 at bats. 
• Glass Half Full: Snider is one of the top hitting prospects in baseball.  He’s got a good approach to the plate and has solid power.  He is patient at the plate and will wait for his pitch and take a walk when needed. 
• Glass Half Full: Snider is huge and will have to watch his weight to stay in the outfield, though many feel he’ll wind up moving to first or be a DH.  He’s not fast and is sometimes too patient at the plate, which is a big reason for his 154 strikeouts in 487 at bats. 
• Projection:  Average.  Snider still has a lot of growing to do, but is actually ready to do something at the major league level if given the shot.  Still, there are holes in his game that could be fixed given time. 
• What He Can Be:  An All-Star Hitter That Hits Third Or Fourth
• 2009 Course Of Action: Snider will probably wind up in Triple A to begin the season.  The Blue Jays roster is full up in the outfield and first base spots.  I also think that the Jays will almost certainly be acquiring another hitter this off-season.  Still, I would count on Snider making an appearance at some point. 

Brett Cecil (LHP)

• DOB: 7/2/86
• Drafted: 1st round (S), 2007, University of Maryland
  2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)
  Height/Weight: 6-3/220
  Bats/Throws: R/L
  The Skinny:  Maryland’s former closer continued on his development into a starting pitcher, rising to Triple A with an overall 8-5 record, and a nifty 2.88 ERA. 
• Glass Half Full:  A big left hander, Cecil had a solid three pitch mix back in college, but was probably miscast by coaching.  He throws a low 90’s fastball that can reach 94, but at lower velocities allows him to get great groundball rates.  His slider is his best pitch and he throws a changeup that at the very least is average, but can be a nasty pitch at times.  He has a durable frame and clean mechanics as well. 
• Glass Half Empty:  Because Cecil hasn’t started much, there are still doubts that he can handle a starter’s workload.  None of his pitches rate as plus, though they are all very good.
• Projection:  Average.  Cecil was a good project to take a flier on, as the Jays are utilizing him as he should have been used in college.  Though he’s going to take a bit longer to develop thanks to the innings buildup he needs to go through, he’s looking quite nice right now.
• What He Can Be:  Middle Of The Rotation Horse
• 2009 Course Of Action:  Cecil will be in Triple A, and the Jays hope he might be able to give some contributions out of the pen near the end of the year.

 

J.P. Arencibia (C)
DOB: 1/5/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Tennessee

2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  A poor junior year resulted in Arencibia’s stock dropping in his junior year, but resulted in it being a draft day steal for the Blue Jays, who took him near the middle of the first round.  Arencibia struggled in 2007, but this year has been a bounce back year for him, with him hitting .298/.322/.527 with 27 home runs between High and Double A.
Glass Half Full:  Arencibia has great power potential, putting him right behind Matt Wieters for the best power hitting catcher in the minor leagues.  He’s a good athlete and should hit for contact in the majors.  He gets good reviews for his game calling and leadership skills and has a strong gun behind the plate. 

Glass Half Empty:  Arencibia swings and misses quite a bit, as he only walked 18 times all season.  His swing is long and has plenty of holes to exploit.  Many also feel that Arencibia might not be able to stay behind the plate long term.  His defense is still a work in progress and because of the back issues that sidelined him in 2007. 
Projection: Low.  Arencibia is about a year away from getting to Toronto, which is why Rod Barajas is almost certainly going to get his option exercised.  Overall, the plate discipline is a concern with him, and without some semblance of plate discipline, he might wind up a backup if the strikeouts continue to pile up.

What He Can Be:  Solid Starter With Some Star Power
2009 Course Of Action: Arencibia will split time at DH and Catcher with Brian Jeroloman at Las Vegas.  I wouldn’t expect to see him this year unless injuries hit Toronto’s battery corps.

 

Scott Campbell (2B)

DOB:  9/25/84

Drafted:  10th Round, 2006, Gonzaga

2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)

Height/Weight:  6-0/200

Bats/Throws:  L/R

The Skinny:  One of the first native New Zealanders to be drafted in Major League Baseball History, Campbell is a real prospect.  He hit .302/.398/.427 in 112 games at Double A, then continued his hitting spree in the Arizona Fall League.  He also made an appearance at the Future’s Game.

Glass Half Empty:  Campbell can flat out hit, and is able to drive the ball well.  He’s able to work the count to get on base and shows a little bit of pop.  He’s a fundamentally sound second baseman as well.

Glass Half Empty:  Campbell doesn’t have any tool that will blow you away.  His range and speed aren’t great and his power is below average. 

Projection:  Low.  Campbell looks like he can at least be a decent second baseman at the major league level.  And while none of his tools blow you away, the same could be said about Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, who have since established themselves as above average major leaguers.

What He Can Be:  An average second baseman

2009 Course Of Action:  Campbell will likely head to Triple A for the year.  Long term, there has been talk about moving Aaron Hill back to shortstop to make room for Campbell, which isn’t the worst idea in the world considering the shortstops that the Jays have gone through over the past few years.

 

David Cooper (1B)

DOB:  2/12/87

Drafted:  1st Round, 2008, California

2009 Club:  Dunedin Blue Jays (High A)

Height/Weight:  6-0/175

Bats/Throws:  L/L

The Skinny:  Cooper was criticized as being a bit too much like past Blue Jays draft picks, as low bust, low probability.  However, the Jays were kind of against the wall, as they lost out on Brett Wallace to St. Louis and lost on local boy Brett Lawrie to Milwaukee.  There weren’t really any other prep options available, so I don’t fault them for Cooper, especially after he mashed his way to High A in his first half season of pro ball.

Glass Half Full:  Cooper is an advanced college bat that does several things well.  He hits for some power, he draws walks, and should hit for a solid average.  He’s also a capable first baseman, which is always nice.

Glass Half Empty:  The biggest question about Cooper is just how much power he’ll hit for.  Reports vary from Lyle Overbay power to Adrian Gonzalez power, the latter of which is what you hope for, the former not so much.

Projection: Low.  Cooper is thought to be a fast riser, which is why he was picked by Toronto.  He’s got a low bust potential and at the very least could be a solid six-year investment in the lineup that you later let go when something better comes along. 

What He Can Be:  A Starting First Baseman

2009 Course Of Action:  Cooper is headed to the Jays’ High A affiliate, where he should have no problem finishing the year in Double A.  The big question, really, is to keep track of his power numbers and see what he’s producing, in order to get a better handle of where he fits in the lineup.

 

Justin Jackson (SS)
DOB: 12/11/88

Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, North Carolina High School
2009 Club:  Lansing Lugnuts (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/82
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  Another tools player that Toronto took a chance on, Jackson was inconsistent during the year, looking solid in some months, horrible in others.  Still, that was the book on him when he was drafted thanks to his raw tools. 
Glass Half Full:  Jackson has tools galore in that he has power and speed.  He shows some beginnings of palte discipline and is already a great defender at shortstop. 
Glass Half Empty:  Jackson needs a lot of work with the stick, as his swing is stiff and he has trouble reading pitches.  He struggles against lefties and he’s error prone. 

Projection:  High.  Jackson is a raw product, and he was expected to take time in terms of his development.  Having him repeat at Lansing would be for the best, as he’ll be more experienced.  He also should get some heavy work in extended to help him get his bat going.

What He Can Be: He’s got star level tools, but is far from that ceiling by a mile.
2009 Course Of Action:  Jackson would be best served by heading back to Lansing with Kevin Ahrens.  At this point, there is no where to go but up.

 

Kevin Ahrens (3B)
DOB: 4/26/89
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Texas High School

2009 Club:  Lansing Lugnuts (Low A)

Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: S/R
The Skinny:  Ahrens had an overall disappointing pro debut down in Lansing, which may have been a over-aggressive promotion.  He hit .259/.329/.369, which is bad even considering how pitching oriented the Midwestern League is.
Glass Half Full:  Ahrens has a quick swing from both sides of the plate, and he’s got solid power potential as well.  He’s a decent third baseman that should improve as he spends more time at the hot corner.  He’s got the defensive tools to succeed there, with a strong arm and good hands.

Glass Half Empty:  Ahrens has had trouble making the adjustment to pro ball.  He’s not fast and is prone to chasing pitches, leading to huge strikeout totals. 

Projection:  High.  It’s not uncommon for prep kids to struggle right off the bat.  Not everyone can be Travis Fucking Snider.  Still, the strikeout totals and the lack of power is a bit concerning. 

What He Can Be: An Above Average Third Baseman
2009 Course Of Action: Ahrens is likely going to have to repeat the level, which may be for his benefit, as he’ll be more experienced this trip around. 

 

David Purcey (LHP)
DOB: 4/22/82

Drafted: 1st round, 2004, University of Oklahoma
2009 Club:  Toronto Blue Jays (MLB)

Height/Weight: 6-5/235
Bats/Throws:  L/L
The Skinny:  Purcey was outstanding in Syracuse, but his major league debut was rocky at best, with a 5.54 ERA.

Glass Half Full:  Purcey is a big pitcher with a power fastball that sits in the low 90’s, but can touch 95.  He has a slider that rates as a plus pitch and a decent changeup.  He also shows the ability to eat innings. 

Glass Half Empty:  Purcey’s off-speed pitches are inconsistent, and his command fell apart in the majors. 

Projection:  Low.  Purcey is ready to contribute and should at least be an above average setup man in the future.  However, Toronto will give him a shot to remain a starter, of which he would be an very valuable rotation horse.

What He Can Be:  A middle of the rotation innings eater.

2009 Course Of Action:  Purcey looked raw at times, but overall his future looks rather good.  I think that he’ll likely take the fifth starters/long relief role on the Jays and will break camp with the big league club.

 

Brad Mills (LHP)

DOB: 3/5/85

Drafted: 4th Round, 2007, Arizona

2009 Club:  New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny:  Yet another talented Toronto Lefty, Mills was originally drafted by Toronto in 23rd round of the 2006 draft.  He returned for his senior year, which paid off handsomely.  The Jays re-selected him in the 4th round, and he is now coming off of a year in which he went 13-5 with a 1.85 ERA through Low, High and Double A, all the while showing promising numbers that project him as a solid major leaguer.
Glass Half Full:  Mills is built like a durable workhorse.  He throws a pair of very good off-speed pitches in his curveball and his changeup.  He’s shown improved command than when he was at Arizona, and has shown the ability to pitch out of trouble.
Glass Half Empty:  Mills’ fastball has little velocity, and it’s straight.  He’s also flyball prone as well. 

Projection:  Low.  Mills might be able to be a full capable back of the rotation starter for the Jays, as he’s durable, pitches rather well, and is effective.  Provided he keeps his fastball command up, he should continue to have success.

What He Can Be: Back of the rotation starter.

2009 Course Of Action:  Mills will pitch for New Hampshire, though he will get a sniff of the big leagues at Spring Training this year, as he’s reportedly a candidate for Shawn Marcum’s spot, and potentially, A.J. Burnett’s.

 

Ricky Romero (LHP)
DOB: 11/6/84
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Cal State Fullerton
2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)

Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: R/L
The Skinny: The most controversial pick in J.P. Riccardi’s tenure (Troy Tulowitzski was available and went to the Rockies with the next pick), Romero was mediocre at Double A, though he did show some signs of promise at Syracuse. 

Glass Half Full:  Romero has decent velocity for a lefty, reaching 91 most of the time.  His best pitches are a changeup and a curveball.  He does a good job of inducing groundballs and he’s showing signs of at least being able to eat innings.

Glass Half Empty:  Romero’s stuff isn’t great overall, which makes his selection as the 6th overall pick that much more puzzling.  His control remains inconsistent, which limits his upside.

Projection:  Low.  Romero doesn’t really have much left to improve upon, and his potential upside is low.  So overall, he’s maybe going to rate as a back of the rotation starter at best, with Doug Davis being his ceiling.

What He Can Be: Back of the rotation innings eater.

2009 Course Of Action:  There was talk about Romero making a cameo appearance with the Jays, possibly as a way to try and justify his selection.  However, he doesn’t have to be added to the roster until next December, meaning that he’ll be back in Triple A to start the year.

 

Brandon McGee (RHP)

Drafted: 4th round, 2006, Bradley University
2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)

McGee hit a wall in Double A as his control fell apart.  He was beaten up and posted an ERA near 5, with almost as many walks as strikeouts.  From a stuff perspective, McGee has a sinking fastball that clocks in the 89-92 mph range and his best pitch is a slider that has a lot of movement.  He’s able to get groundball most of the times.  His lack of a third pitch to go against left handers also was evident this season, as he got torched by them.  He’s able to soak up innings, so that’s a plus, but all in all, McGee needs two tighten up his control and learn a changeup or cut fastball for him to remain a starter. 

 

Balbino Fuenmayor (3B)
Signed: 2006, Venezuela
2009 Club:  Auburn Doubledays (Short Season)

Fuenmayor is one of the better hitting prospects in the system.  He makes good contact with the bat and has good hand-eye coordination.  He’s a solid defender with good range and arm strength.  His power is even beginning to manifest itself as well.  However, he’s not fast and needs to begin to manifest some form of plate discipline in the future.  Still, I like him and he should be one of the more interesting players in Auburn.

 

Andrew Liebel (RHP)

Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2008, Long Beach State

2009 Club:  High A

Liebel was an intruiging pick.  He doesn’t have fantastic stuff, but he’s durable, lasts late into games, and generally does a good job of keeping the all in the park.  He’s aggressive, throwing strikes with an effective four pitch mix. His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, and his changeup is a above average pitch.  He also throws a slider and a curve, and both grade about average.  He’s got good command and his mechanics are fairly good.  Overall, he’s a snice signing by Toronto and could mature into a back of the rotation innings eater in a few years.

 

Robert Sobolewski (3B)

Drafted:  4^th Round, 2008, Miami

2009 Club:  High A
A draft eligible sophomore, Sobolewski was expected to return to Miami, where he likely would have been a first rounder this year.  However, the Jays bought out his commitment and there result is that they now have an intriguing prospect to work with.  Sobelewski has good power and walks well.  However, he’s still a bit raw at the plate, as he doesn’t hit to all fields and can get pull happy at times.  He’s also not a strong defensive third baseman, but might have the range to move to second base.  All in all, he’s an interesting kid to watch.
John Tolisano (2B)
Drafted: 2nd round, 2007, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Lansing Lugnuts (Low A)

Yet another member of the highly regarded 2007 draft class, Tolisano, like fellow draftmates Ahrens and Hackson, also struggled in his first pro experience.  Tolisano has a nice swing that generates above average power.  He also is patient and has good pitch recognition, giving him the tools to be a gifted hitter.  He’s got good athleticism and is a solid runner.  However, Tolisano has trouble against breaking stuff and tries to hit for power too often, making him strikeout prone.  He’s a shitty defensive second baseman, making people think he might need to move to centerfield.  Still, like many young players, it’s not uncommon for them to struggle at times during their first year, so some patience has to be used with Tolisano.  I don’t think the Jays will move him off of second just yet, though.  The best bet is to let the bat come around, then move him when he gets to the higher minors.

 

Johermyn Chavez (LF)
Signed: 2005, Venezuela
2009 Club:  High A

Another high profile international product, Chavez had a poor year in 2008.  Chavez has huge power potential and showed that potential last year in the Gulf Coast League.  He strikes out too much and has trouble with pitch recognition.  Chavez also isn’t the most athletic person on the farm, and that won’t change as he ages.  Many feel that he’ll eventually be pushed to first base.  Chavez likely will head to High A for the seaso.

 

Kenny Wilson (CF)

Drafted:  2nd Round, 2008, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Auburn Doubledays (Short Season)

One of the quick risers before the draft, the Jays are gambling that Wilson’s physical tools will manifest themselves in time.  Wilson is a capable centerfield that should stay there.  He’s also one of the fastest players available in the draft, as he was graded an 80 runner on the scouting scale (highest grade you can get).  He has some semblance of plate discipline and is a demon on the base paths, stealing 25 bases out of 28 attempts.  He’s got some modest power that should blossom into doubles power eventually.  In the end, the Jays are comparing him to Coco Crisp.  He should begin the season either in Auburn or in Lansing. 

 

Tyler Pastronicky (SS)

Drafted:  5^th Round, 2008, Florida High School

2009 Club:

Pastornicky has some knocks on him in that he’s short and skinny.  However, his tools do stand out.  He’s got good speed, a strong arm and good range.  He’ll be more than capable of staying on shortstop.  He’s got a feel for contact and some plate discipline.  The one thing he lacks is power.  So all in all, the potential is there for him to be able to make something of himself.
Brian Jeroloman (C)

Drafted:  6th Round, 2006, Florida

2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)

Jeroloman is another catching prospect in the Jays system.  He’s regarded to be a solid receiver and has extraordinary plate discipline and walk totals throughout his career.  The problem is that he can’t hit for average or for power.  Still, the on base numbers might give him a cup of coffee somewhere, and he might have some value as a minor trade piece. 

 

Eric Thames (LF)

Drafted: 7^th Round, 2008, Pepperdine

2009 Club:  Lansing Lugnuts (Low A)

Thames fell in the draft due to injury concerns, which makes him a steal at this spot.  Thames is a solid offensive prospect, as he has good plate discipline, solid power potential, and good bat speed.  A torn quad muscle killed his draft status, and that may still be an issue.  He also has a weak arm, and might benefit from a move to first or DH.  Finally, as his power developed, Thames began becoming overaggressive, chasing pitches in hopes of driving them out of the park.  Still, he’s a good prospect to be had at this price.

 

Ryan Patterson (LF)

Drafted: 4th round, 2005, LSU

2009 Club:  Las Vegas (Triple A)

The Jays hoped Patterson would be able to adjust to the higher minors.  That hasn’t happened, thus far.  In spite of good power potential and the fact that he hits right and left handers, Patterson is too impatient and the result is that he has struggles.  He isn’t athletic enough for centerfield nor can he play right.  All in all, he’s looking like he could be a potential bench player in the future if he’s not able to slow himself down.

 

Final Thoughts

It’s not a loaded farm system, but it is a respectable one that should allow the Jays to draw upon for reserves in 2009, with some of their better guys potentially ready to make the big league squad in Spring Training.  Overall, the farm isn’t fantastic, but it’s respectable.  And really, that’s not a bad thing.

 

Washington Nationals - Prospects Report

The Nationals Farm System took a collective step back in 2008.  Many of their higher known prospects suffered setbacks due to injury, inefficiency, or disappointment, mirroring the Major League’s fortunes.  Their top draft pick, Aaron Crow, didn’t sign after a breakdown in negotiations between his agents and the Nationals brass, resulted in Crow signing instead with Fort Worth, resulting in him re-entering the draft.  To add insult to injury, the Nationals failed to make any significant trades to bring in prospect depth to the minors. 

Still, there was some upside for the Nationals.  Jordan Zimmerman, a underrated pick in the 2008 draft, may be ready to compete for a role in the Nationals’ rotation.  Other talents, such as Michael Burgess, had excellent years, promoting themselves into the top prospect of the organization talk.  Overall, there is some upside, but not enough near term to change the course of the organization.

 

Nationals Prospect Rankings

Jordan Zimmerman (RHP)

Michael Burgess (RHP)

Chris Marrero (1B)

Ross Detwiler (LHP)

Esmailyn Gonzalez (SS)

Stephen King (SS)

Collin Balester (RHP)

Adrian Nieto (C)

Destin Hood (OF)

Colton Willems (RHP)

Shairon Martis (RHP) 

J.P. Ramirez (OF)

Jack McGeary (LHP)

Josh Smoker (LHP)

Tyler Clippard (RHP)

Danny Espinosa (SS)

Will Atwood (LHP)

Adam Carr (RHP)

Marcus Jones (CF)

Graham Hicks (LHP)

Terrell Young (RHP)

 

Prospect Reports

Jordan Zimmerman (RHP)

DOB:  5/23/86

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2007, Wisconsin-Stevens Point

2009 Club:  Syracuse Chiefs (AAA)

Height/Weight:  6-2/200

Bats/Throws:  R/R

The Skinny:  Overlooked because of his small school background, Zimmerman is instead looking like a draft day steal.  After dominating High A, Zimmerman was promoted to Double A, where he more than held his own, establishing himself as Washington’s top pitcher before Crow was taken.

Glass Half Full:  I love this guy. Zimmerman was a second round pick last June, from the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. A strong overall athlete, he was dominant in college but didn’t go higher in the draft because he pitched for a small school. He’s got great stuff: a 91-94 MPH hard sinker, a good curveball and an improving changeup. He had a nasty slider in college, but the Nationals wouldn’t let him use it much as a pro, wanting him to concentrate on his other pitches. His pro debut in the New York-Penn League was excellent, with sharp K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP marks across the board. Great numbers, good stuff, what more could you ask for?

Glass Half Empty:  If he stays healthy I think he will move rapidly.

Projection:  Low.  Zimmerman is a lot more ready than what the Nationals could have anticipated when they drafted him. 

What He Can Be:  A Solid Number Two Starter

2009 Course Of Action: Zimmerman likely is going to get an invite to Major League Spring Training, but I think it’s more likely that he goes back to the minors, unless he absolutely goes crazy on major league caliber hitters.  However, count on him being at the top of the list as far as emergency minor league call ups go.

 

Michael Burgess (RF)

DOB:  10/20/88

Drafted:  1^st Round (S), 2007, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Potomac Nationals (High A)

Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: L/L

The Skinny:  Largely seen as a risky pick because of his all or nothing approach, Burgess so far is justifying his selection, crushing the ball across the minors, all the while pilling up strikeouts as well. 

Glass Half Full:  Burgess is built like a bull and has unbelievable power potential.  Combined with his excellent hand-eye coordination and his excellent at speed, the result is a power-hitting monster.  He’s a good base runner that should put up double digit steals and he’s a plus defender in right field.

Glass Half Empty:  Burgess’s swing is long and as a result has a lot of holes savvy pitchers can exploit.  He’s not the fastest player either, but that’s just nitpicking.

Projection:  Very High.  Burgess remains what I classified him last year, a high risk/high reward prospect that we won’t really get a high gauge on what he is until the higher levels, when better pitchers can exploit him.  Still, the power itself remains awesome.

What He Can Be:  A high power, high strikeout, low average middle of the order run producer.

2009 Course Of Action:  With the Sally League behind him, Burgess is likely headed for the next step, the Southern League, which should give a solid indicator on where he stacks up as a prospect. 

 

Chris Marrero (1B)
DOB: 7/2/88
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Harrisburg Senators (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-3/210
Bats/Throws: R/R

The Skinny:  Marrero had a tough year in 2008, hitting XXX/XXX/XXX to start the season, but he picked up after XXX, hitting XXX/XXX/XXX the rest of the way. 

Glass Half Full:  Marrero’s biggest tool is that he’s got the power.  Combined with his excellent bat speed, he should make for an above average power threat at the major league level. 
Glass Half Empty:  Marrero’s plate discipline isn’t great and his swing is long, resulting in high strikeout totals.  Marrero isn’t a terrific athlete and is now limited to first base. 

Projection:  Average.  Marrero is one of the few solid hitting prospects in the Nationals system and despite the fact he won’t hit for a high average, his power does have use for the Nationals, who don’t have a long term fit at the position.  Overall, he’s got the potential to be a 30 home run man in the majors.

What He Can Be:  Richie Sexson?

2009 Course Of Action:  Marrero is likely headed to Harrisburg, where the Nationals should get a good gauge on how he’ll do against more advanced pitching.

 

Ross Detwiler (LHP)

DOB:  3/6/86

Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Missouri State

2009 Club:  Harrisburg Senators (Double A)

Height/Weight: 6-5/180
Bats/Throws: R/L

The Skinny:  After a promising debut with the Nationals, Detwiler’s stock dropped as he had trouble finding consistency at Potomac.  He finally looked something close to his

Glass Half Full:  Detwiler throws in the low 90’s, touching 94 several times during college.  He has a curve that is a plus pitch as well.  His changeup is also beginning to show potential as well.  He normally has very good control.  His fastball has some sink to it, allowing him to induce a good number of ground balls.

Glass Half Empty:  Detwiler’s velocity and his control were off to begin the year.  There are also doubts as to how Detwiler’s build will hold up over a major league season.

Projection:  Average.  Detwiler is still a solid prospect, even if he has suffered some growing pains.  He looked more or less like the pitcher he was toward the end of the year.  All in all, it’s as I thought last year: he’s solid if he can stay upright, which he has so far.

What He Can Be:  A Number 3 starter.

2009 Course Of Action:  Detwiler is going to have to move up to Double A because the Nationals started his options clock too soon when they stupidly had him pitch ONE fucking inning in 2007.  Hopefully, his troubles last year were only a bump in the road.

 

Esmailyn Gonzalez (SS)

DOB: 9/21/89

Signed: 2006, Dominican Republic

2009 Club:  Hagertown Suns (Low A)

Height/Weight: 5-11/175

Bats/Throws: S/R

The Skinny:  The Nationals big bonus baby in 2006, Gonzalez had a solid season this year, hitting XXX/XXX/XXX for the Rookie League Nats, all the while showing excellent tools. 

Glass Half Full:  Gonzalez is loaded with tools, his best being his defense.  He’s got great range to both sides of the infield, great fielding instincts, a solid arm, and solid speed.  He’s also got some pop to the bat and is a switch hitter that makes solid contact with the ball.

Glass Half Empty:  The power isn’t there for Gonzalez, which is the only tool he lacks.  He also needs to fill out a little more in terms of his frame.

Projection:  High.  While toolsy players usually have a high bust potential, for the most part they are worth the gamble because if they are able to translate gifts into production, you’ve got yourself a solid prospect.  And that’s the deal with Gonzalez, who simply will need time to translate his own gifts into performance.

What He Can Be:  A solid shortstop that hits for average while appearing on ESPN’s Web Gems segments often.

2009 Course Of Action:  Look for Gonzalez to make his full season debut in Vermont.  He’s one to keep an eye on

 

Stephen King (SS)
DOB: 10/2/87

Drafted: 3rd round, 2006, Florida HS
2009 Club:  Potomac Nationals (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  After an inconsistent year in 2007 that saw King hit .227/.296/.337 across three levels, King hit .284/.336/.406 in the Sally League before a promotion to Potomac. 

Glass Half Full:  King is a solid athlete that has the range, arm and instincts to stay at shortstop.  He’s got good power that should continue to develop as well.  He’s also improved a bit in terms of his contact ability as well. 
Glass Half Empty:  King’s wonky swing leaves him failing against power stuff.  He’s also not very quick for a shortstop.
 Projection: Average.  King’s got some good tools and overall is developing into quite the draft day steal from 2006.  Christian Guzman was extended in part to give King more time to develop.  Long term, he’s their shortstop of the future.

What He Can Be:  A poor man’s Michael Young

2009 Course Of Action: King will likely be headed back to the Potomac Nationals, though an attempt to challenge him a bit by sending him with Marrero to Harrisburg isn’t out of the question.

 

Collin Balester (RHP)
DOB: 6/6/86
Drafted: 4th round, 2004, California High School

2009 Club: Syracuse Chiefs (Triple A)

Height/Weight: 6-5/190
Bats/Throws: R/R

The Skinny:  Balester made his major league debut for the Nationals and wasn’t great, but wasn’t awful either.  His numbers at Columbus reflected this aspect as well.
Glass Half Full:  Balester is a tall, skinny right hander that has a solid three pitch mix.  His fastball can touch 94 and have good movement through the strike zone.  His curveball is his best pitch and his changeup is average.  His mechanics are somewhat clean and overall, he’s a solid pitcher. 
Glass Half Empty: Balester tries to use his heater too much, which gets him in trouble.  In spite of a good three pitch mix, none of them are exactly special. 

Projection:  Low.  Balester is nearly ready and could probably carve out a nice career as an innings eater in the back of the rotation.  Greatness isn’t expected of him, but in Washington, fans will gladly take serviceable. 

What He Can Be:  A Back Of The Rotation Starter.

2009 Course Of Action:  Balester could make the Nationals as a fifth starter, but it’s more than likely that he’ll be flying back and forth between Syracuse and DC when a pitcher is needed.  Because of all the mediocrity in front of him, I doubt the Nationals will give him a fair look at the job unless pitchers start dropping like flies like they did in 2007. 

 

Adrian Nieto (C)

DOB:  11/12/89

Drafted:  5^th Round, 2008, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Vermont Lake Monsters (Short Season)

Height/Weight:  6-0/195

Bats/Throws:  R/R

The Skinny:  One of the best high school catchers available in the draft, Nieto fell in the draft until he was picked in the 5^th round by Washington, which resulted in some distain from the catcher.  As a result, many feel he may have had a deal with a bigger money club for later in the draft.  Still, he was signed and will report to Washington in the spring.

Glass Half Full:  Nieto was one of the best young catchers in the draft.  He’s an excellent defender, has soft hands, does a good job at blocking balls, and has a strong arm.  He has a feel for contact and can hit for some power. 

Glass Half Empty:  Nieto was seen at times to be lazy in his defense.  He’s also not the fastest guy in the world.

Projection:  High.  Nieto could become a very good starting catcher in time, provided he invests some effort into his defensive abilities and continues to progress as a bat.  Really, he’s going to have to remain at catcher for him to have any sort of major league value, as he doesn’t have the power for first or the outfield.

What He Can Be:  An Average Catcher

2009 Course Of Action:  Nieto will likely be headed to the Nationals Short Season affiliate after working with instructors on his defensive skills and abilities.

 

Destin Hood (CF)

DOB:  4/3/90

Drafted:  2^nd Round, 2008, Alabama High School

2009 Club:  Vermont Lake Monsters (Short Season)

Height/Weight:  6-2/180

Bats/Throws:  R/R

The Skinny:  A toolsy outfielder that created early buss on the showcase circuit, Hood also was a highly touted recruit for football, having a scholarship already on the table for Alabama.  However, he had a poor senior season and fell to the second round, where he got paid to go pro by Washington.

Glass Half Full:  One of the best athletes in the system, Hood has incredible speed and strength.  He’s a danger on the basepaths and should be a 30 home run hitter in time.  He’s average in centerfield and is fairly exciting to watch.

Glass Half Empty:  Hood is really raw and his baseball skills will take some time to develop.  As he fills out, he’s going to have to move to an outfield corner, though he may lose enough range that he’ll be in left.

Projection:  Very High.  Hood remains a big project, but he’s got the tools to be a star if he’s refined.  Overall, he’s got star potential if he harnesses it.

What He Can Be:  A power hitting right fielder.

2009 Course of Action:  Hood will likely be put in the Nationals short season affiliate, after a stint in extended spring training.

 

Colton Willems (RHP)
DOB: 7/3/88
Drafted: 1^st Round, 2006, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Potomac Nationals (High A)

Height/Weight: 6-3/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Willems pitched 100 innings for Hagertown, all part of the Nationals’ plan to bring him on slowly.
Glass Half Full: Willems throws in the low 90’s, and his fastball has a bit of sink.  He does touch 95 at times.  His curveball is good, showing solid movement, and his changeup is developing, but shows signs of eventually being a solid pitch. 
Glass Half Empty: Willems doesn’t strike out many and his mechanics are a bit inconsistent.  He needs to work on his command, as his stuff is good enough where he should be striking out a lot more than the 60 he struck out last season.

Projection:  Average.  Willems is coming along nicely, though he doesn’t have the star potential the Nats thought he would have.  Overall, I think he’ll always be a bit of a frustrating starter, but he should at the very least be a quality starter to have in the middle of your rotation, similar to a Kevin Millwood or a Brad Radke.

What He Can Be:  A Middle Of The Rotation Starter, With A Chance At More

2009 Course Of Action:  Willems will likely be heading to High A, where he should crack 120-130 innings or so. 

 

Shairon Martis (RHP)

DOB: 3/30/87
Signed:  2004, Curaco (Giants)

2009 Club:  Syracuse Chiefs (Triple A)

Height/Weight: 6-1/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny:  An underrated talent, Martis had a decent year in the minors before making the big league club late in 2008.

Glass Half Full: Martis has two plus pitches, throwing a low 90’s fastball and coupling it with a curveball that has good sink.  His off-speed pitch is average, and should be usable as a starter.

Glass Half Empty:  Martis doesn’t have overpowering stuff and he tends to work in the upper half in the zone, resulting in him being homer prone.  He also doesn’t have anything about him that’s special, which limits his projection.

Projection:  Low.  Martis is pretty much ready for the show.  He should be a decent back of the rotation starter if given a shot. 

What He Can Be:  Back of the rotation starter.

2009 Course Of Action: Martis will be given a shot to get a job in the big league club, but overall I think he’ll be waiting at Triple A for his shot.

 

J.P. Ramirez (CF)

Drafted:  15^th Round, 2008, Texas High School

2009 Club:  Hagertown Suns (Low A)

A highly rated hitter from Texas, Ramirez got paid a handsome sum to bypass his Tulane commitment, as Washington likely sought to save a little face after the Aaron Crow negotiations went awry.  Ramirez is an excellent hitting prospect.  He has one of the fastest swings in the system and uses it to make solid contact with the ball.  He’s fast and has excellent arm strength as well, allowing him to be a decent defender as well.  Ramirez is unlikely to hit for much power, as it’s more of the doubles variety.  He lacks the range for centerfield and is going to have to continue to hit in order to be more than a fourth outfielder.  Overall, Ramirez looks to be fairly developed at a young age, and the fact that he is unlikely to remain in center is an issue.  However, if he’s able to get on base and continue to make contact, he should have solid value as a leadoff man.

 

Jack McGeary (LHP)
Drafted: 6^th Round, 2007, Massachusetts High School

2009 Club:  Hagertown Suns (Low A)

McGeary, one of Washington’s late round picks that wanted a huge bonus or he would go to college, joined the Nationals system after the Spring Semester ended at Stanford.  However, he was underwhelming in his first season’s debut.  McGeary is a polished left hander with the tools to be a middle of the rotation guy.  He has average fastball velocity that could increase as he gets older.  His best pitch, a curveball, has good downward movement and is good enough for him to at least be a two pitch reliever.  He also throws a decent changeup as well.  However, McGeary’s command was okay, not great, which was what his calling card was in high school.  He also got pounded by left handers in his limited outings.  Despite his stuff, he was quite hittable.  Overall, I still like McGeary, but the deal he signed with Washington means that he’s going to develop a lot longer than he would have if he didn’t go to school for two semesters out of the year.  So the Nationals are going to have to be patient with him.  It’s likely that he won’t be showing any significant progress until 2010 or so.

 

Josh Smoker (LHP)

Drafted: 1^st Round (S), 2007, Georgia High School

2009 Club:  Hagertown Suns (Low A)

Smoker was one of the better lefties in the draft, but he fell on hard times this year.  He’s got good athleticism and has some of the best pure velocity for a left hander in the system.  He regularly throws in the low 90’s and can touch 95 and his changeup and curveball both have the potential to be good pitches.  However, he’s still really raw and his command was off last season.  Still, I do remain fairly high on him, though it’s going to take some time for him to get righted once again. 

 

Tyler Clippard (RHP)

Drafted:  9^th Round, 2003, Florida High School (Yankees)

2009 Club:  Washington Nationals (MLB)

Once touted as the second coming of Mike Mussina, Clippard was traded to Washington, where he had a fairly decent season for Columbus.  Clippard still has the potential to be a innings eater.  He’s durable, he has fairly good command and his curveball and changeup are still good pitches.  His biggest issue is that because he lacks much of a fastball, he’s going to get killed if his command isn’t pinpoint accurate.  Still, in the National League, with a decent defense and some great pitchers parks in his division, he could be fairly usable in a Woody Williams sort of way.  I think he’ll break camp with Washington, as he’s better than a lot of the other options that they’ll likely have.

 

Danny Espinosa (SS)

Drafted:  3^rd Round, 2008, Long Beach State

2009 Club:  Hagertown Suns (Low A)

Espinosa was a good value in the third round and had a solid pro showing.  Deensively, he is a solid, but not spectacular shortstop with good range, hands, and arm strength.  He is a decent switch hitter that shows more power from his right side, but makes more consistent contact from his left side.  He’s got decent hitting skills, and enough speed to beat out hits.  Overall, he could be a decent offensive option, maybe similar to Ryan Theriot.

 

Will Atwood (LHP)

Drafted:  12^th Round, 2008, South Carolina

2009 Club:  Potomac Nationals (High A)

An underrated member of South Carolina’s staff, Atwood has a lot to like.  Though he doesn’t quite have the ceiling of other arms in the system like a Josh Smoker, Atwood should be at least a steady contributor.  He throws in the high 80’s, topping out at 92.  He also has an excellent curve and a usable slider.  Overall, he won’t be a star, but he’ll be a solid piece to a rotation of the future.

 

Adam Carr (RHP)
Drafted: 18^th Round, 2006, Oklahoma State
2009 Club:  Syracuse Chiefs (Triple A)

Carr had an awful 22007 season, but looked dominant in the Arizona Fall League when I saw him pitch a couple of times.  Carr throws in the mid 90’s, touching 97 often, and his heater has good movement.  He also has a solid slider that is a plus pitch when it’s on.  Carr, however, has violent mechanics, which costs him control and command over his stuff.  Overall, he could be a good setup man if he’s able to maintain his regularity on the mound.

 

Marcus Jones (CF)

Drafted:  11^th Round, 2008, NC State

2009 Club:  Hagertown Cheifs (Low A)

Jones is an athlete with huge athletic skills, but he is a raw baseball talent.  He’s very fast and a very good defensive player in centerfield.  However, though many feel he has 20 home run potential in him, much of that is only projection.  He has gap power at best right now.  He lacks plate discipline and his swing can get long, resulting in large strikeout totals.  Overall, Jones’ ceiling right now could be Joey Gathright, but it could be more with the right coaching.

 

Graham Hicks (LHP)

Drafted:  4^th Round, 2008, Florida High School

2009 Club:  Gulf Coast Nationals (Rookie)

A raw arm, Hicks does have a lot of good potential in him.  He’s tall, and he’s got a set of workable pitches.  His curveball looks to have some potential and he shows a bit of a feel for a changeup.  The problem with him is that his fastball is only in the high 80’s right now.  Many feel that due to his size, he’ll gain more velocity as he fills out, but that’s all projection at this point.  So, the Nationals are gambling on that projection.  If he fills out and gains fastball velocity into the low 90’s, he could become a solid number two starter.  If he doesn’t, he’s fifth starter material.

 

Terrell Young (RHP)

Drafted:  10^th Round, 2004, Missouri High School (Reds)
2009 Club:  Washington Nationals (MLB)

Taken in the Rule 5 draft, Young has a solid arm on him.  He’s able to throw in the mid 90’s thanks to his excellent fastball.  He does have good size as well.  However, Young lacks any sort of secondary pitch, and he’s had a lot of injuries in the past.  His command is also an issue.  He should, however, stick with the Nats, who probably will be looking at him as a cheapie relief option that they can develop into a setup man or closer. 

 

Final Analysis

This is a system with very few sure things and a whole lot of sleeper prospects that could either explode onto the scene or flame out miserably.  The Bowden administration for Washington has resulted in some uninspiring talent acquisitions throughout his tenure, but the lack of any impact talent to come from the farm system in the three years since the organization moved to Washington is a poor reflection on his skills.  This season should determine whether or not old leatherpants is headed in the right direction.

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